Wilson: 6 Power Five Teams I’m Betting to Go Under Their Win Totals
Credit Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston College running back AJ Dillon celebrating a touchdown against Clemson in 2017
- College football win totals are trickling out at sportsbooks across the country.
- Collin Wilson has already bet a bunch of them, including six Power Five schools he thinks will go under.
Every crack of dawn during the 1980s, my parents would enter my room with the same declaration.
The early bird gets the worm.
This proclamation went on to apply to all areas of life from bidding on houses to fetching bread and milk in a weather crisis to college football betting. Some opportunities are only available to the first competitors, like these win totals.
My last post was on Group of Five win totals I like, which usually comes with a different strategy.
This article will look at six Power Five win totals that I’ll be betting an under on all summer. High profile teams tend to generate the most gambling interest in the futures market, which is why I’m waiting on an under for Nebraska, Texas and Oregon.
Below you’ll find projected point spreads for every game for these six teams, which I used to create a projected win total, and I writeup for each on why I’m taking the under.
Boston College Golden Eagles
Coach Steve Addazio enters his seventh season, accumulating seven regular season wins in each of the past three years. After a stint of stability, we should see a step back in 2019.
The Golden Eagles have a returning production rank of 110th and break in a new offensive coordinator.
— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) January 14, 2019
Mike Bajakian served as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback coach the past four years and has not been in the college ranks since 2014 at Tennessee. The Vols fell from an offensive S&P+ rank of No. 9 to 63rd after Bajakian took over in 2013. With an up-tempo coordinator, Boston College should continue average over 75 snaps a game, which ranks top 25 in FBS.
Quarterback Anthony Brown and running back AJ Dillion return for the offense behind an offensive line that lost its center, left tackle and right guard. The receiving corps also took a hit with only one returning player with more than 25 targets. The defense is equally as depleted at every position.
A quick look at the schedule dictates this wager could cash by the end of October. Boston College will be underdogs in their final five games against Clemson, Syracuse, Florida State, Notre Dame and Pitt.
Win Total: Boston College Under 6.5
Duke Blue Devils
The loss of quarterback Daniel Jones to the NFL is a factor into this wager, but not as big as losses in the receiving corps, offensive line and linebacker units. The Blue Devils have a returning production rank of 123rd on offense, which will be on full display in their Week 1 game vs. Alabama.
After games against North Carolina A&T and Middle Tennessee, Duke is expected to be favored by a field goal over just Georgia Tech. Both the Action Network Power Ratings and S&P+ have the Blue Devils at 5.3 and 5.4 wins respectively. The best news for Duke is their placement of third in the 2019 APR rankings, meaning they could get bowl eligible with just five wins.
This is a play at 6.5 down to 5.5.
Win Total: Duke Under 6.5
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Everything you could want in an under comes just on the outskirts of downtown Atlanta.
The Yellow Jackets have been a triple option team for a decade under Paul Johnson. But Georgia Tech will have a hybrid approach on offense during 2019, mixing a bit of 2018 Temple, Coastal Carolina and Alabama.
Coach Geoff Collins’ goal for the season is to implement a lifestyle and mantra for the program, not schemes for future Yellow Jackets seasons. As an example, this stat read by Geoff Collins after the spring game says it all — a Tech tight end hasn’t caught a pass since 2007! This is a program undergoing big changes.
Here's Geoff Collins explaining his thinking on the formation shift. pic.twitter.com/hU4xhdzllX
— Cody Chaffins (@Cody_Fox5) April 29, 2019
The schedule is bookended by the best teams in the country with Clemson and Georgia. Temple will be highly motivated to beat Collins in a September game that is a precursor to ACC play.
If the non-conference schedule wasn’t tough enough, Georgia Tech will not be favored by more than 2-points in any ACC game.
Win Total: Georgia Tech Under 4.5
The Jayhawks are attempting to make waves in the college football world. Kansas hired former Arkansas Athletic Director Jeff Long, who fired head coach David Beaty after a 3-9 season.
Considering the Jayhawks have not won more than three games since 2009, last year should be considered a success. Long went on to hire former LSU head coach Les Miles, who immediately reminded us that Kansas will more than likely stay in the Big 12 cellar.
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) November 19, 2018
There has been more news about Miles’ acting career than actual football concepts coming out of Lawrence. After bringing in former Auburn offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey to run the offense, Lindsey moved on within 30 days to take the head coaching job at Troy. Journeyman Les Koenning will have full control of the offense this fall, which should be chalk full of schemes from the early 2000s.
Going over 3.5 wins means winning a conference game, but Kansas will be two touchdown underdogs to every single Big 12 team. The Jayhawks will also be two touchdown underdogs at Boston College, while Coastal Carolina may present a tricky option offense.
The Action Network numbers have Kansas at 1.9 wins, making this a play at 3.5 down to 2.5. Don’t be fooled by Jeff Long and Les Miles, as this regime is about fundraising and facilities upgrade. The Jayhawks are still years away from being in a bowl game.
Win Total: Kansas Under 3.5
It is hard for any college football team to recover from losing a program-defining player, as Kentucky has a double dose in losing running back Benny Snell Jr. and edge rusher Josh Allen. Kentucky comes in at 114th in returning production, suffering the biggest losses on the defensive side of the ball.
While S&P+ has the Wildcats at 6.1 wins, the Action Network dictates a win total of 5.5. This number is currently plus-money on the under, but there is an uptick in strength of schedule. Kentucky will be favored in five games at home with Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Arkansas, UT Martin and Louisville.
Losses to Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri are expected. Ultimately, the win total comes down to a sweep of Tennessee and Vanderbilt.
With the current win total under at plus-money, November games against the Vols and Commodores can be hedged easily if needed.
Win Total: Kentucky Under 6
This win total immediately jumped off the page, as our Action Network win total sits at 7.1. S&P+ has a much more bearish projection for the Boilermakers at 5.4. An offensive returning production rank of 121st is partially responsible for the total, as Rondale Moore is the only significant name returning.
Rondale Moore with the DAGGER
— SI College Football (@si_ncaafb) October 21, 2018
The non-conference schedule is nothing but simple, with a road trip to Nevada (altitude) and home games with Vanderbilt and TCU. A win total of 8 will only cash on the Over with an upset outside of road trips to Wisconsin, Penn State and Iowa.
Take Purdue on the under through 7, as a sweep in coin flip games against TCU, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern and Indiana is needed to win nine games.
Win Total: Purdue Under 8