Wilson: Why You Should Bet Utah to Win the Pac-12 at This Price
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zack Moss
- Collin Wilson has been price shopping on college football futures all spring.
- He likes Utah to win the Pac-12 and has found wildly different prices at different sportsbooks.
- Collin outlines his reasoning for taking the Utes and recommends a price that he's comfortable betting it until.
On my departure plane from Las Vegas back to the Midwest, one thought continually crossed my mind:
“This is a buyer’s market.”
Generally that term is reserved for real estate when potential investors have options in the market. But not now. Not in sports betting.
New Jersey and Pennsylvania have joined Las Vegas in the college football betting market, making it a buyer’s paradise for win totals, conference futures and national title futures. The prices can vary wildly.
College Football Win Totals in Vegas came out last night @CGTechnology_
An updated look as of tonight pic.twitter.com/JAa1lDyHre
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) June 8, 2019
My iPhone is now filled with more apps from betting operators than the airlines. I spent much of last weekend in Vegas comparing Golden Nugget, Caesars, and Circa Sports lines to the offerings of FanDuel, DraftKings and SugarHouse on the other side of the country.
This is most certainly a buyers market, and getting down at a better number will always pay off in the long run.
And there’s one future in particular I love that I want to get the best price on.
Why Now Is the Time to Bet Utah and the Price to Look For
You could see some signs that Utah was on the rise in 2018.
After a pair of conference losses to Washington and Washington State, Utah would reel off seven wins in their next eight games. A late season injury to quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss left Utah without their most dynamic players in the Pac-12 title game against Washington.
As 5.5-point underdogs in Santa Clara, Utah came up a field goal short against a loaded Washington defense. The Utes would succumb thanks to three turnovers and averaging 2 yards per carry.
But Utah has every reason to be excited for 2019, as Huntley and Moss return to a roster that ranks 21st overall in returning production. The entire receiving core returns along with a deep defensive line. There isn’t too much worry on the offensive line, as two returners play the important positions of left tackle and center. The secondary returns its most dangerous defenders in Julian Blackmon and Javelin Guidry. Both players combined for 19 pass breakups in the 2018 season.
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 25, 2018
Conference odds began to surface at DraftKings in the beginning of May.
Utah was initially listed at 10-1 to win the Pac-12 Championship. New Jersey runners were being lined up as I stated my case for Utah on The Favorites podcast.
Hint: Think Pac-12 pic.twitter.com/EHYlFpdEho
— The Favorites Podcast (@TheFavoritesPod) May 7, 2019
Utah making the College Football Playoff is still a longshot, and a number dominoes to fall. The Big Ten and Notre Dame will have to cannibalize themselves with multiple 2-loss teams for the Utes to have a shot. But winning the Pac-12 is a much different story.
The Utes avoid Oregon and Stanford from the Pac-12 North. USC presents the biggest challenge in the South division, but the Trojans have physical games with BYU and Stanford leading into Utah. If that wasn’t enough for Southern Cal, Washington follows the Utah game for the Trojans.
With five of nine conference games at home and road travel scheduled with Oregon State and Arizona, Utah has the easiest schedule in the Pac-12 South.
Odds are beginning to surface in a number of places for the Pac 12 Conference. Over the weekend I was able to buy Utah in a range from +800 to +450 in a number of shops.
The last number I would take on the Utes is +350, which represents the value of short odds parlayed at USC, Washington and the Pac-12 Championship Game.
This is a buyers market, and for the Pac-12 Championship, shop wisely on the Utes.
Pac-12 Champion: Utah (down to +350)