Another year of college football, another year with a wide-open Big 12.
Last season's conference champion, Arizona State, came out of nowhere to win the conference after being picked last in the preseason poll.
Will we see another long shot this season, or will a top contender like Kansas State or Utah take home the title?
Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson broke down the Big 12 and dished out his top futures and win totals for the new season.
With that, let's dive into our 2025 Big 12 Preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2025 Big 12 Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kansas State | +550 |
| Arizona State | +550 |
| Utah | +600 |
| Texas Tech | +600 |
| Baylor | +700 |
| TCU | +850 |
| Iowa State | +1100 |
| Kansas | +1800 |
| BYU | +2000 |
| Colorado | +2800 |
| Cincinnati | +3000 |
| Houston | +3500 |
| West Virginia | +4000 |
| Arizona | +4500 |
| UCF | +5500 |
| Oklahoma State | +5500 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Wednesday, Aug 13.
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It’s a bit troubling to have a 190-pound quarterback in this scheme. I love Avery Johnson — he’s a human highlight reel — but his size and style aren’t great for what the Wildcats want to do on offense.
That said, offensive coordinator Matt Wells doesn’t have any questions with his skill-position talent. Johnson will play under center. Dylan Edwards will serve as the top running back, and Joe Jackson will be his backup. He has Jaron Tibbs and Texas Tech/Boston College transfer Jerand Bradley penciled in at wide receiver.
All the offensive questions start and end on the offensive line.
Sam Hecht ranked 89th among all qualified centers in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) grades. Taylor Poitier ranked 141st among left guards. Blindside tackle George Fitzpatrick never saw the field in three years at Ohio State.
This could be a considerable problem for Johnson, who posted two Big Time Throws (BTT) to seven Turnover Worthy Plays (TWP) in a pressured pocket last season.
I’m worried about the offense, specifically between Johnson’s fit with Wells’ scheme and the upside among the front five.
I’m more bullish on the defense, specifically up front.
Kansas State’s nickel package has the best defensive line in the conference. Tobi Osunsanmi and Cody Stufflebean combined for nine quarterback hits, and strong-side linebacker Desmond Purnell chipped in another six.
Additionally, Austin Romaine returns as the starting middle linebacker after leading the team with 96 tackles last season.
The Wildcats ranked 15th nationally in Defensive Line Yards and fifth in Rush Success Rate allowed. I expect similar results from defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman’s group this season.
I am slightly more worried about the secondary. Safety VJ Payne is a potential All-Big 12 player, but aside from him, the Passing EPA numbers could get worse.
From a scheduling perspective, Kansas State will have three conference bye weeks thanks to its Week 0 matchup with Iowa State. Of note, the Wildcats’ game at Arizona doesn’t count in the Big 12 standings. Additionally, potential key tiebreaker games come on the road against Baylor, Kansas and Utah, alongside the Dublin game against Iowa State.
Ultimately, I don’t have any interest in backing Kansas State. Although I make the Wildcat win total around 8.9 and show some value on over 8.5, I don’t like the offensive makeup of the squad.
Pick: Pass
The most significant question surrounding the Sun Devils is how vital Cam Skattebo was to the offense, and how much does Kenny Dillingham and Marcus Arroyo’s offensive philosophy change without him?
Last season, Skattebo was personally responsible for 65% of the team’s rushing yards and 18% of receiving yards.
From a pass-game perspective, Skattebo earned most of his yardage on wheel routes and curls across the middle of the field, where he embarrassed opposing linebackers week in and week out.
Can Arroyo call the same plays this year? I’m saying no.
Army transfer running back Kanye Udoh was targeted once out of the backfield last season. He has been targeted twice in his entire career.
The entire complexion of the offense might change this season.
There are plenty of explosive plays returning with wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who split time between the slot and outside while racking up over three yards per route run.
Additionally, quarterback Sam Leavitt made massive strides last season, as shown by his 13 big-time throws to five turnover-worthy plays.
I don’t have questions about how explosive the offense can be, and I don’t have questions about Udoh running the ball behind a veteran offensive line. However, I do wonder how much the offensive philosophy will have to change when the Sun Devils can’t rely on dumping it off to Skattebo in the passing game.
On defense, the secondary returns some starters, including 23 pass break-ups (PBUs) with nine coming from cornerback Keith Abney. That said, I suspect some of their struggles last year will continue this year after ranking 132nd nationally in pass rush and 82nd in tackling.
The Sun Devils were also atrocious on special teams.
Ultimately, I’m taking the under 8.5 on their win total.
Yes, they have five Big 12 home games. But they also have road games at Iowa State, Baylor and Utah (which is coming off a bye week). I also don’t think the road trip to Mississippi State is an easy win.
Pick: Arizona State Under 8.5 Wins
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I love Utah this season. I make the Utes’ win total 8.8.
New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier and offensive coordinator Jason Beck join the Utes.
Dampier forced a missed tackle on 34% of his 160 carries last season, which is a remarkable number — for context, Heisman Trophy finalist Ashton Jeanty came in at 40%.
Dampier will be joined in the backfield by Washington State transfer running back Wayshawn Parker, who pieced together 20 explosive runs at an average of 3.5 yards after first contact last season.
Those two will be running behind the best offensive line in the Big 12, led by two elite future NFL tackles in Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu.
Dampier also has a versatile weapon to throw to in Ryan Davis, who averaged 2.1 yards per route run with a 12-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in 130 snaps at slot and wideout last year with New Mexico.
Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley’s 4-2-5 might have the best front six in the conference.
Linebacker Lander Barton returns after leading the team in tackles last season while also adding six pass deflections, three tackles for loss and a few sacks. Nickelback Smith Snowden returns to the secondary after recording eight PBUs and four TFLs last season. He’s essential in Scalley’s scheme.
The Utes ranked top 20 nationally in Havoc, Success Rate allowed, Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed. I don’t expect anything to change this season.
From a schedule perspective, I like that the Utes get many of their most challenging Big 12 games at home, including Texas Tech, Arizona State and Kansas State. While they play Baylor in Waco, they get a bye week before that game.
I think the Utes have a clear path to making the Big 12 Championship behind their ever-elite defense and much-improved offense, and that’s the wager I’m making this season.
Pick: Utah to Make Big 12 Championship (+280)
Texas Tech pieced together a massive NIL budget and managed to pull in one of the nation’s top transfer portal classes, including 13 four-star players across 21 commitments.
The Red Raiders pair that with a monster amount of returning production, including 18 starters from last year’s squad.
That said, winning the offseason means nothing right now — just look at Ole Miss last season. I think the Red Raiders are overinflated in the markets.
Hopefully, quarterback Behren Morton can stay healthy. He lowered his turnover-worthy play rate from 4.4% to 2.8% last year while improving his on-target rate significantly. He’s getting more accurate and making fewer mistakes.
The pass-catching room looks solid, led by returning wideouts Caleb Douglas (2.0 YRR), Coy Eakin and Miami (OH) transfer Reggie Virgil, who recorded 2.2 yards per route run.
The offensive line is a melting pot of talent, including guys from the ACC, MAC and JUCO levels. That said, the group that’s been pulled together has a combined 130 career starts, so there’s no shortage of experience.
On the other side of the ball, new defensive coordinator Shiel Wood was among the best hires of the offseason cycle. He runs a base 3-4 hybrid scheme with multiple coverage looks, standing up ends and hidden blitz packages.
The defensive line could be the best in the Big 12. The linebacking corps should be strong behind Ben Roberts and Jacob Rodriguez, who combined for 209 tackles last season.
Transfer edge David Bailey posted six sacks at Stanford. Transfer tackle Lee Hunter was elite at plugging the gaps at UCF, posting 8.5 TFLs. I’m also excited to watch transfer cornerback Brice Pollock, who posted nine PBUs at Mississippi State.
I have no questions about the talent. I think the Red Raiders shored up on defense, and I love the new coordinator on that side of the ball.
All that said, the schedule isn’t easy. Texas Tech has five conference road games this year that could all factor into potential tiebreak scenarios: Utah, Houston, Arizona State, Kansas State and West Virginia.
In three years, head coach Joey McGuire is 15-5 at home and 6-10 on the road. Additionally, BYU gets a bye week before visiting Lubbock on Nov. 4.
I think the win total has been overbet, overblown and overinflated. I project exactly eight wins for the Red Raiders this season, so under 8.5 wins at any plus-money price is an easy wager for me.
Pick: Texas Tech Under 8.5 Wins
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There are plenty of expectations for offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, quarterback Sawyer Robertson and a stable of solid running backs.
But I’m not fully sold.
For starters, I’m lower than many on Robertson. He had 28 touchdowns to only eight picks, but he also posted 15 big-time throws to 16 turnover-worthy plays, and only seven of those 16 came in a pressured pocket. He also ranked 69th nationally in on-target rate.
That said, he should be well-protected behind an offensive line that returns four starters, and his top two receivers from last season return in Ashtyn Hawkins and Josh Cameron.
I’m primarily worried about the mistakes, and I'm uncertain what the ceiling is for a Robertson-led offense that also ranked 50th nationally in Line Yards and Rush Success Rate last season.
On defense, returning middle linebacker Keaton Thomas is important after he led the team with 114 tackles last season. Transfer linebacker Travion Barnes posted 79 tackles at FIU last season while also grading out as elite in coverage.
The secondary is a collection of portal players with high recruiting value, but none of them have had much playing time. I think teams with solid passing attacks will be able to get deep on Baylor.
For example, I’m especially worried about the secondary in Baylor’s Week 1 matchup with Auburn. I believe Jackson Arnold and the Tigers’ top-three wideouts will really test that group, and they might fail that test because they haven’t had enough time together on the field.
I see the upside for the Bears, and I think the best way to target them is to back Auburn in Week 1 and hope you can get Baylor futures at better prices after the loss.
Pick: Auburn -1.5 vs. Baylor (Week 1)
I like TCU. I project the Horned Frogs to win eight games this season. They arguably have the best quarterback-wide receiver duo in the conference. The secondary should be good.
Still, I couldn’t help but nitpick the Frogs.
Josh Hoover carved up opposing defenses last season, but he often struggled to read Cover 1 and ultimately made too many mistakes. He threw 27 touchdowns to only 11 interceptions, but he also posted 18 turnover-worthy plays to only 17 big-time throws while ranking 37th nationally in on-target rate.
Of greater concern, Hoover managed only one big-time throw with eight turnover-worthy plays in a pressured pocket last season, meaning the offensive line has to keep him clean.
I’m uncertain if this front five can do that. The Frogs lost their center and left tackle, replacing those positions through the portal with Incarnate Word and Abilene Christian transfers.
The good news is that Hoover has an elite deep threat weapon in Eric McAlister, the home-run hitter who averaged 2.9 yards per route run with an 11.5-yard aDOT across 58 targets last season. He catches deep balls and runs fast, boasting the ability to take any pass to the house.
That said, the Frogs couldn’t run the ball last year and probably won’t be able to this season.
Defensive coordinator Andy Avalos runs a 4-2-5 scheme that prefers to generate Havoc, although it failed to create any last season. The Frogs ranked 122nd nationally in pass rush and 84th in Havoc.
Avalos needs star Devean Deal and linebacker Namdi Obiazor to step up after combining for 10 TFLs and eight sacks last season.
In the secondary, Bud Clark is a good free safety, and Avery Helm will be a solid cornerback. But the Frogs ranked 100th nationally in contested catch rate last season, and that needs to improve.
The schedule isn’t easy, especially with five Big 12 road games, including a back-to-back spot traveling from Provo to Houston (the Cougars will be coming off a bye week). It’ll be tough for Hoover to face Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU, all of which project with elite secondaries. TCU hosts Baylor in Fort Worth, but the Bears will be coming off a bye week.
Sure, the Frogs might struggle to run the ball, protect Hoover, and could get blown away on defense. Hoover will create big plays but also probably make bad throws against elite coverage units. This is a tough team to handicap.
Still, I’ll likely bet the over on TCU’s win total. From a mathematical perspective, I project 8.1 wins.
Pick: TCU Over 6.5 Wins
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I’m 100% in on Iowa State. I love the Cyclones this season, and I love head coach Matt Campbell.
Quarterback Rocco Becht’s turnover-worthy play rate actually increased slightly last year (2.6% to 3.6%), but that’s mainly because he was throwing the ball down the field to two elite outside wide receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
I think Iowa State is going to install a more old-school Campbell offense, which consists primarily of throwing the ball to huge tight ends. For what it’s worth, offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser also serves as the tight ends coach.
You should see more 12 and 13 personnel with Gabe Burkle and the massive Benjamin Brahmer. Those two combined for 50 targets last season, alongside redshirt freshman Cooper Alexander.
Becht does have a legit outside weapon in ECU transfer Chase Sowell, who put up 2.8 yards per route run with the Pirates.
Still, I imagine his mistakes will decrease because he’ll be conducting a shorter, quicker passing game with bigger personnel and more pre-snap motion.
Also, there are over 100 career starts on the offensive line, so the front five has experience.
On the other side of the ball, the biggest issue with Iowa State’s defense last season was a lack of pressure, pass rush and Havoc, as the whole team combined for only 17 sacks.
That should change this season.
Outside linebacker Caleb Bacon was hurt all last year, but he generated 22 pressures in 2023. Iowa State needed more pressure from the defensive ends, so they snagged Tamatoa McDonough in the portal, who amassed 40 pressures, 27 quarterback hurries and seven sacks across three seasons at Yale.
I am a bit worried about the defense at large. McDonough and the front three of the 3-3-5 stack need to generate more pressure because the secondary won’t be as good. Cornerback Jontez Williams and safety Jeremiah Cooper combined for 12 PBUs last season, but there isn’t a ton of talent at the other positions.
That said, the Cyclones prefer to develop players rather than relying too heavily on the portal. I’m hopeful that some back-end pieces can step up in the upcoming season.
Additionally, the Cyclones won the schedule lottery this year.
They have three bye weeks during Big 12 play. They get BYU at home the week after the Holy War. They avoid Baylor and Utah. Two of their four road games are at Oklahoma State and Colorado. The most challenging game on their schedule is probably at TCU.
I’m in on Iowa State. I’m betting the Cyclones to win the Big 12.
Pick: Iowa State to Win Big 12 (+1200)
The offensive system is there — it’s just a matter of execution and staying healthy.
When Lance Leipold took over, and with Matt Lubick co-coordinating alongside Andy Kotelnicki, Kansas made some solid strides. From a rough 2-10 debut season, it improved to 6-7 in Year 2 and then to 9-4.
The offense played a huge role in that growth. You could credit player talent, but ultimately, the system they’re dialed back into has shown it can deliver big results.
That system is all about heavy pre-snap motion, mainly to manipulate 3-3-5 defenses and get them to reveal their intentions before the ball is snapped. The wide receivers are constantly moving, running reverse orbits and pulling off some wild stuff out of the backfield. The timing has to be flawless for it to work.
But sometimes that leads to mistakes. So I’m going to be watching closely and see how well Kansas can recapture that offensive mojo from a couple of years ago.
A big part of that is quarterback Jalon Daniels staying healthy. It’s getting frustrating watching Saturday morning live shows when he suddenly goes down with no warning.
Daniels is vital to this offense. Last season, he ran for 300 yards on designed runs, and that number will probably climb.
Running back Daniel Hishaw averaged just 3.3 yards after contact but had 12 explosive runs. He’s poised to fill that workhorse role well, though we’ll see if he can add a bit more spark to his numbers. The Jayhawks also brought in Iowa transfer Leshon Williams, who ran for 821 yards in 2023.
The offensive line brings questions and uncertainty about how they'll shape up, but the offense uses a lot of pocket movement to keep defenses guessing.
On defense, it’s a different story. Kansas lost nine of its top 11 tacklers, but it brings back edge rusher Dean Miller, who will be a big boost with six sacks last year.
The team’s portal activity was low compared to others in the Big 12. It didn’t go nearly as hard after talent as Texas Tech or others did. Cornerback Syeed Gibbs from Georgia Tech enters as top defensive back pickup, but overall, the defense has its work cut out for it.
The Jayhawks ranked 126th in Defensive Line Yards and 117th in creating contested catches last season.
D.K. McDonald enters his second season as defensive coordinator, and he’ll need to turn things around quickly. Don’t expect him to get a long leash if performances don’t improve.
Looking at the schedule, there are definitely winnable games: they host Oklahoma State, West Virginia (fresh off the Backyard Brawl) and Cincinnati, and have road trips to UCF and Arizona.
That’s a reasonable path to five wins, my projection for their Big 12 conference win total comes in at 5.4. The market currently has it around 4.5, so I’m leaning over there.
If Daniels stays healthy and the offense fires up, Kansas could even pull off an upset or two.
Kansas has a clear blueprint for success on offense and a defense that needs improvement, but it has some talent coming back and a schedule that carves out a decent path to a winning season.
Pick: Kansas Over 4.5 Conference Wins
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I like the Cougars this year, but we were not fans of Jake Retzlaff.
The numbers look decent on paper with 20 touchdowns to 12 interceptions—but that doesn’t tell the full story. He just made way too many mistakes. He took shots that just weren’t there and ended up turning the ball over way too much. It felt like a turnover waiting to happen every other play.
Offensively, it’s uncertain what they’ll become this year.
Running back LJ Martin is a bright spot after averaging just 3.5 yards after first contact and creating 38 missed tackles.
The offensive line has some experience under its belt — at least half a season — but last year, it ranked 63rd in Havoc Allowed, so pressure will be an issue no matter who takes over at quarterback.
The problem is that Retzlaff was the Cougs’ second-leading rusher with over 400 yards on the ground. That rushing production was more valuable than his mistake-prone passing, so I think the team is still figuring out its identity right now.
Speaking of identity, the real turning point for this team was when Kalani Sitake brought in defensive coordinator Jay Hill from Weber State. Hill was one of the best defensive minds in the FCS and totally flipped BYU’s defense around last year.
Sitake was on the hot seat before Hill came along. With Hill, the defense cleaned it up big time, finishing 44th in Havoc and 26th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
They still need work against the run and could use a stronger pass rush, and losing two key pieces in the secondary means new faces will have to step up.
The linebackers, Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker, are expected to anchor one of the conference’s best units, but I have some concerns about the edge rushers.
Hill’s defense relies on pressure from those spots, but the listed edge players weigh just 235 and 255 pounds. That’s way too light to handle Big 12 offensive tackles, especially when playing teams like Kansas State.
Looking at the schedule, there are only four Big 12 home games but some byes before tough road trips at East Carolina and Texas Tech, so there’s some rest built in.
The Cougars also have a trip to Iowa State after the Holy War, which is awful timing. Nobody likes going to Ames, and heading there right after that rivalry game is brutal.
I’m really scrambling to find a reason to take the over on their win total. My projection says 6.5 wins, and I just can’t get over that number. This team has some pieces, but it has some big questions to answer before it can push beyond that.
Pick: Pass
The offensive line seems set to slide back to where it was during Deion Sanders’ first year in 2023. That's a huge concern.
Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter should take over as the starting quarterback after racking up 56 passing touchdowns and 21 rushing touchdowns over his four-year career.
Two years ago, a big chunk of the offense revolved around Shedeur Sanders getting flushed out of the pocket and finding someone deep downfield.
The key difference now is that Salter is more mobile; he can take off running when needed and has a bit more size to absorb hits.
Highly-touted freshman quarterback Julian Lewis is also expected to see playing time at some point this season.
But the running backs are the biggest concern here. It’s what really gives off the vibe that this team resembles the 2023 version of Colorado football — the one that mainly just dumped the ball off to Dylan Edwards because the running game was nonexistent.
Back then, the offensive line struggled to create any kind of push, and defenses consistently stuffed running lanes. That could happen again this season.
Backs Dallan Hayden and Micah Welch had a combined 108 carries last season but forced only 15 missed tackles. That’s bad. Forcing missed tackles should be second nature for a running back. Even a simple move can break a defender’s grasp, but these guys showed zero flash or explosiveness.
On defense, Robert Livingston returns as defensive coordinator, but the team lost six of its top eight tacklers from last year. Travis Hunter is also gone from the secondary, which is a big hit.
That said, safety Carter Stoutmire and cornerback DJ McKinney are back after combining for 16 pass breakups last season. The linebackers, though, are all junior college transfers, adding another layer of uncertainty.
It begs the question: Where would the team stand without Deion Sanders? Now that his sons and Hunter have moved on, what kind of leadership exists? That’s hard to quantify or analyze with stats, but it’s an important piece that this team will have to figure out in real-time.
To make things even more challenging, the first five Big 12 games come against some of the league’s best secondaries: Houston, BYU, TCU, Iowa State and Utah.
That’s a tough slate right off the bat, especially with question marks at key offensive positions.
This looks like a team in transition, trying to rebuild its identity after a whirlwind couple of years under Sanders.
Pick: Colorado Under 3.5 Conference Wins
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Quarterback Brendan Sorsby racked up 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions a season ago, but a closer look at the numbers shows he had a 9:13 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio.
He heads into this season with tight end Joe Royer — who could be the best in the Big 12 — still on the roster. But outside of him, the team loses four of its top five targets from last year.
Meanwhile, running back Tawee Walker has never posted more than three yards after first contact during his three years splitting time between Oklahoma and Wisconsin.
On the line, expect Albany and South Dakota transfers to step in and fill the gaps.
A big storyline is the return of Dontay Corleone at the nose tackle spot. "The Godfather" is the captain and the ultimate clubhouse guy. He can absolutely be a rock for Cincinnati. Having him back is a serious boost.
In the secondary, Coastal Carolina transfer Matthew McDoom anchors the unit from the cornerback position. Last season, he posted 10 pass breakups and three interceptions and wasn’t far off the year before with seven breakups. He’ll be key in locking down opposing receivers.
The schedule looks friendly overall. Not a single opponent comes off a bye week when they play, and the team gets its own bye before a challenging road trip at Kansas and a home game against Arizona. Baylor’s on back-to-back road travel come Oct. 25, adding a slight edge in conference matchups.
Putting it all together, I peg the win total at 7.3, so I'm rolling with the over.
Pick: Cincinnati Over 6.5 Wins
Offensive coordinator Slade Nagle is back alongside head coach Willie Fritz to build up the offense, and it starts with Texas A&M transfer quarterback Conner Weigman.
Weigman comes in with a 17:21 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio over three years at Texas A&M.
Now, Nagle joining the fold is significant. These are the kind of coaches who don’t just call plays; they build programs and make players like Weigman shine.
It didn’t quite click for Weigman at A&M, and it didn't for Zach Calzada either. Meanwhile, Calzada headed to Incarnate Word and essentially reinvented himself. Could that happen here? There’s definitely potential.
New additions include former UAB slot Amare Thomas, who brings 1.9 yards per route run, and former Rice running back Dean Connors, who averaged 3.5 yards after first contact. Both guys bring solid production and should fit smoothly.
On defense, coordinator Austin Armstrong will stick with his aggressive blueprint, loading up on heavy blitz packages designed to create Havoc.
That approach should only get better in 2024, especially since a bunch of key linebackers missed significant time due to injuries but are now returning. They’re older, wiser and hungry to make up for lost time.
The defensive line also gets a boost with Eddie Walls III, who racked up 40 pressures and 30 quarterback hurries at FIU. Before that, he made waves at Bethune-Cookman.
Looking ahead, this team could start 4-0, hosting Colorado in Week 3, then enjoying a bye before a tough road trip to Corvallis, where the Beavers are coming off a road trip to Eugene. Conference travel isn't bad, either, with trips to Oklahoma State and UCF on the docket.
All in all, there’s an intriguing mix of returning talent, new pieces and a defensive scheme that promises action. If the health holds up and development continues, Houston will be a team to watch early in the season.
Pick: Houston Over 6.5 Wins
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Now, West Virginia is a team I’m keeping a close eye on this year as more of a situational play.
Head coach Rich Rodriguez is known for pushing a top-five tempo nationally, and while his offense can be electric, West Virginia’s defense looks shaky to me. That's why I think they’re being overvalued by the market.
Take the Week 1 game against Robert Morris — the total hasn’t been set, but I’m already circling it. When that number drops, I expect the over to be the smart play right out of the gate.
This team brought in running back Jaylan Knighton from SMU after he spent his first three seasons at Miami. However, he was taken off the roster this month, leaving Jahiem White to lead the way without CJ Donaldson.
White racked up 844 yards last year, averaging about four yards after initial contact, so he can make an impact with the backfield to himself.
Schedule-wise, be on the lookout for the Sept. 20 game against Kansas. That’s going to be a brutal matchup with West Virginia coming off the Backyard Brawl to face a rested Kansas team after a bye week. Giving one of the best coaches in the conference two full weeks to prepare against you is a recipe for disaster.
Other than that, I don’t see enough reason to play the under on the Mountaineers. Rich Rod’s offense was sharp right from the start last year in Jacksonville State, and his system can give defensive coordinators headaches.
So, I’m all in on the overs when he’s on the sideline.
I’m not fading Rich Rod’s offense anytime soon, except in that tricky Kansas showdown. Keep an eye on those overs and be ready to jump in when the Robert Morris total finally drops.
Pick: Play Overs Week-to-Week
Arizona struggled to surround quarterback Niah Fifita with weapons, finishing 11th in the Big 12 transfer portal rankings.
After a strong 2023 where Fifita had a 9:8 ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays, last year saw his numbers slip to 16:14 with 170 pressures.
What’s intriguing is that he actually performs better under pressure with a 10:5 ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays. But when he’s in a clean pocket, he’s noticeably worse, finishing 48th in the on-target rate.
With Seth Doege stepping in as the new offensive coordinator, Arizona utilize an Air Raid scheme.
Doege has already made moves to bring in some new talent, like Braedyn Locke from Wisconsin via the portal and Sawyer Anderson, who flipped from Purdue. That doesn’t exactly say that he has confidence in Fifita.
On the receiver side, Luke Wysong transfers in from New Mexico, where he put up 2.5 yards per route run on 110 targets last season.
The offensive line is a bit of a question mark heading into 2024 with plenty of redshirts and injuries, although many 300-pound players return in the trenches.
Defensively, new coordinator Danny Gonzales is bringing in the Rocky Long nickel scheme. The top four tacklers from last year return, but most of those guys were playing in the second and third levels.
The Wildcats struggled to stop the run, ranking 130th in PFF tackling and 125th in first downs allowed.
Looking at the schedule, Arizona should be able to pick up easy wins over Hawaii and Weber State, while Kansas State is a nonconference game this season.
The Wildcats host Oklahoma State and BYU in winnable games, and then face coin-flips at Colorado, vs. Kansas and at Cincinnati.
Overall, I think there's enough here for the 'Cats to go over their win total.
Pick: Arizona Over 5.5 Wins
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I could make a case for the under on UCF’s win total.
As long as Alex Grinch is the defensive coordinator, things are going to be bad. Things have gotten worse at every place he’s coached.
There’s a three-way quarterback battle between Tayven Jackson (Indiana transfer), Cam Fancher (FAU transfer) and Jacurri Brown. If Fancher wins the starting job, I’d bet the under right away.
Every single wide receiver from last year’s squad departed in the offseason.
Myles Montgomery takes over the lead running back role from the departed RJ Harvey, which is a monster loss. Montgomery averages a modest 3.5 yards after first contact.
The defensive line could be decent behind Nyjalik Kelly and Malachi Lawrence, who combined for 10 sacks last season. However, the linebacker corps is composed entirely of transfers, and the secondary is super light on talent — a problem when facing opposing Big 12 passing attacks.
I think they’ll be able to create some pressure, but they’ll likely struggle to stop the run and play decent coverage.
The Knights should start 2-0 after playing Jacksonville State and North Carolina A&T in the first two weeks. But after that, it’s coin-flip game after coin-flip game, including home games against West Virginia, Houston and Kansas alongside five Big 12 road games.
I’m passing on this team altogether. There’s a lot of uncertainty with the roster and the schedule.
Pick: Pass
Let’s take a different look at Oklahoma State here.
A couple of years back at Big 12 Media Days, I was chatting with running back Ollie Gordon II. He was apologizing for getting caught driving with open containers. I asked him what flipped the switch the year before and turned him into such a dynamic running back. He told me it was all about a full offensive overhaul, switching from man blocking to zone blocking.
That change came right up to the bye week. In the first three games, Gordon barely made a blip. Then, after they revamped the run-blocking scheme, he took off. It wasn’t working before, so head coach Mike Gundy pulled the plug and rewired the whole offense in the middle of the season. Totally bold move.
And speaking of offense, we’re about to see Doug Meacham return as offensive coordinator — the same guy who was here from 2005-12 when Gundy first showed up.
I think Gundy is on his last card. There’s nowhere else to turn to find a solid offensive identity. He’s been rewiring things midseason for years now, moving blocking schemes from man to zone and vice versa.
On defense, things have been sliding since Jim Knowles left. It has slowly gotten worse and more watered down.
New defensive coordinator Todd Grantham steps in and is trying to run a 3-4 defense, but it doesn’t fit here. The personnel is all wrong, and they just don’t have the right players for it.
It feels like Gundy is grasping at straws again. He’s been changing up blocking schemes and defensive schemes midseason, year after year, which tells me they're really just shooting from the hip. This whole mess feels like a desperation move.
Maybe I’m wrong, and maybe he pulls some magic and they rack up six or seven wins. Maybe he says he’s had his guy at quarterback all along and knew what he had. But you can’t keep rewiring both offense and defense on the fly every single season and expect it to work.
That lack of a steady identity is a big part of why Oklahoma State is struggling right now. I'm going under no matter what the number is.
Pick: Oklahoma State Under 4.5 Wins
