LSU-Mississippi State Betting Guide: Time to Fade the Tigers?
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ed Orgeron, Joe Burrow and Nick Fitzgerald
LSU-Mississippi State Betting Odds, Picks
- Odds: LSU -6
- Over/Under: 45
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
>> All odds as of 10 a.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets
Is there any better feeling than backing a team one week then fading it the next, and hitting both? That’s where we’ve been with LSU all season.
The Tigers have pulled off three outright upsets (Miami, Auburn, Georgia) as underdogs of more than a field goal — twice as a touchdown dog or more.
LSU has a week off after this before hosting Alabama on Nov. 3. Mississippi State’s offense has really struggled against SEC competition this year, but the Bulldogs are coming off a bye.
Market Moves for LSU-Mississippi State
After opening this game at LSU -6.5, oddsmakers moved to -7 briefly, but it’s now down to -6. The Tigers have landed a majority of bets (56%), but Mississippi State is actually drawing more dollars (60%).
And while the under has been the more popular bet, attracting 60% of tickets, 61% of money wagered is coming on the over, moving this total up from 44.5 to 45.
Trends to Know
By John Ewing
LSU embarrassed No. 2 Georgia, winning 36-16 as a 7-point underdog at home last Saturday. But be careful chasing that win and cover by LSU.
Since 2005, ranked teams coming off a win against a top-10 opponent have gone 101-132-2 (43.3%) ATS in their next game.
By Evan Abrams
Is this a letdown spot for Ed Orgeron and the LSU Tigers after their big upset of No. 2 Georgia last week? As head coach of both LSU and USC, Orgeron has defeated a top-10 opponent and then subsequently faced a conference opponent twice in his career:
- 2017 at Mississippi — Orgeron and LSU won 40-24
- 2013 at Colorado — Orgeron and USC won 47-29
Special Teams Mismatch
Coaches disregard special teams all the time. Whether they just don’t care or can’t coach it, I’m not sure.
But in my eyes, field position due to poor punting and returning has been one of Mississippi State’s biggest problems. The Bulldogs rank bottom 20 in starting field position on both offense and defense. They rank 104th overall in special teams S&P+. When they need to make comebacks (like they had to against Florida and Kentucky), they haven’t been able to throw the ball with enough consistency to make up for that poor field position.
LSU ranks third overall in special teams S&P+, and that’s been a sneaky reason the Tigers have exceeded expectations. Kicker Cole Tracy is 17 for 19 on field goals, and despite being inefficient as a whole on offense, LSU has scored a solid 4.76 points per possession inside the 40-yard line because Tracy pretty much guarantees it. He hit a game-winner against Auburn and went 4-for-4 against Miami.