NCAAF Odds, Prediction for Washington State vs. Oregon State: Our Experts Debate Saturday’s Spread (Sept. 23)

Washington State vs. Oregon State Odds

By Mike Ianniello

Is this game basically the de facto Pac-12 Championship game? They’re the only two teams left. Part of me thinks they should just shake hands and agree to tie as a show of solidarity.

While the Pac-12 does still exist, it has established itself as the conference of quarterbacks this season, and former No. 1 QB recruit DJ Uiagalelei is right up there at the top. He's averaged 9.3 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and leads the conference with a 12.3 average depth of target.

There may be no better way to hype up DJU than to simply point to Clemson’s offense this season. His underperformance for the Tigers seems to be more of an indictment of that system than it does DJ's game.

As good as DJ has looked this year, Oregon State has done an excellent job of zigging while all the other teams zag. As the top teams in the Pac-12 veer towards high-flying passing attacks, the Beavers have maintained a run-first, beat-you-up style of play.

This resulted in Jonathan Smith leading the Beavers to a 10-3 record last season, their first 10-win season since 2006.

Damien Martinez is the best running back in the Pac-12, as he's averaging 117 yards per game and a ridiculous 8.8 yards per carry.

Martinez is a tackle-breaking machine, averaging 5.0 yards after contact per carry, the second-most of any starting running back. He's rushed for over 100 yards in all three games this year after finishing 2022 going over the century mark in the final six games of the season.

Last season, against Washington State, Martinez rushed for 111 yards, with 100 of them coming after contact.

Martinez is also joined in the backfield by sixth-year running back Deshaun Fenwick — who's averaging over 50 yards per game — and the running ability of Uiagalelei. The Beavers' quarterback has added four touchdowns with his legs already this season.

Washington State wants to play fast and run up-tempo, but that's not going to work against Oregon State. This team is excellent at slowing the game down and dragging opponents through the mud with them. The Beavers move the ball slowly, but they move the ball well.

Oregon State isn’t explosive, but it doesn't need to be. The Beavers rank sixth in the country in Success Rate and eighth in the country in points per opportunity. They're going to slowly move the ball down the field, and when they do, they're going to punch it in for the score.

By Tanner McGrath

The Pac-12 is loaded with quarterbacks.

Michael Penix Jr. Bo Nix. Caleb Williams. Shedeur Sanders. Cam Rising. Jayden De Laura.

Currently, the world is infatuated with Uiagalelei.

I understand why. DJU escaping Dabo Swinney’s grasp and capitalizing on his potential is a great storyline, especially with how loathed Dabo is by the college football world.

But I’m not sold yet, primarily because of last week.

Sure, San Diego State always has a good defense. But this squad took heavy losses in the offseason, as Kurt Mattix is working on overhauling his entire front seven.

Yet, this unproven, fresh-faced Aztec defense stymied DJ. He finished with a 47% completion rate, a 40% Success Rate, two interceptions and a 61.9 PFF passing grade, all in Corvallis (where the Beavers are supposedly unbeatable ATS despite the fact that they failed to cover in that one).

Are we sure about this guy yet? That was the only good defense he’s faced this year. The performance brought back Clemson memories, where DJ was one of the nation’s most underwhelming signal callers.

I think the Beavers may be a tad overvalued.

Unfortunately, the Beavers must rely on him this week, as Wazzu’s rush defense has been rock solid.

Behind returning All-Pac-12 defenders Ron Stone Jr. and Brennan Jackson, the Cougars are 26th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed and fifth in PFF’s Rush Defense grades, allowing only 3.6 YPC.

Oregon State has relied on its ground game, and for good reason. The Beavers boast an uber-deep, uber-talented running back room behind a highly-experienced offensive line. They’re averaging 220 rush YPG at 6.3 YPC while leading the nation in Rush Success Rate.

But they haven’t played a rush defense like Wazzu’s yet. And if Jake Dickert decides to take away the rushing attack, that’ll put a ton of pressure on an unproven quarterback in a hostile environment.

I’m not buying DJU rises to the occasion. He’s never before.

Meanwhile, the world is overlooking fellow Pac-12 quarterback Cam Ward.

This guy might be the most underrated quarterback in the nation. He’s been a firecracker in the early going, completing 72.5% of his passes for 9.1 YPA, nine touchdowns and zero picks. Behind him, Wazzu is 18th in EPA per play and ninth in Success Rate.

The Cougars exceeded preseason expectations against Colorado State and Wisconsin, a more difficult schedule than Oregon State has played against.

Why isn’t Ward being talked about as one of the elite Pac-12 quarterbacks?

While DJ and the Beavers are being overvalued, I think Ward and the Cougars are being overlooked. I’m betting they continue to exceed market expectations, winning this one outright or covering as field-goal home ‘dogs.

For what it’s worth, it’s also a decent situational spot for Wazzu. Oregon State has a big matchup with Utah on deck, while Washington State gets its early bye next week. The Cougars can unload the tank knowing they have 14 days off following this one.

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Ianniello: I noticed that Tanner didn't mention Ward when listing out all of the top quarterbacks in the Pac-12? Huh. Interesting.

Ward is not talked about as a top quarterback because he was hyped up coming into last season and largely failed to live up to expectations. He completed less than 65% of his passes with 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Sure, he lit up Colorado State and Northern Colorado this season. But let’s dig in a little bit more. DJU is averaging 12.3 yards on average depth of target. Ward has just a 7.8 ADOT. Uiagalelei has five big-time throws and just one turnover-worthy play. Ward has four big-time throws and four turnover-worthy plays.

Tanner mentioned this Oregon State offense line and how it might be the best unit in the conference. DJU has been sacked just once all season. Between his ability to break tackles and this offensive line, he will have all day to throw against this Washington State defense.

Meanwhile, Ward has been sacked seven times already, the second most in the conference. Oregon State’s defense is 15th in the country at creating Havoc. The Beavers lead the Pac-12 with 12 sacks.

The Beavers’ defense is led by Isaac Hodgins up front and Andrew Chatfield Jr. and John McCartan in the middle. They will continue to put Ward under pressure all game.

On the back end, cornerback Jaden Robinson is a lockdown defender and safeties Akili Arnold and Kitan Oladapo keep everything in front of them, helping the Beavers rank 13th at defending passing Explosiveness.

Washington State is a one-dimensional team. It can’t run the ball and the whole offense relies on Ward. This front seven can pin their ears back and get after Ward while the secondary keeps everything in front of them.

Oregon State sacked Ward six times in their meeting last year, and I expect more of the same in this one.

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McGrath: Cool. Wazzu has no problem stopping your “zigging.”

If anything, your “zigging” is a bad thing in this matchup.

I expect Wazzu to stack the box and stop the run. If Oregon State can’t run the ball with the same effectiveness, it won’t dink-and-dunk its way down the field or punch the ball in.

Last year, Martinez racked up 111 yards on 16 carries. But he had one breakaway run for 50. That means he amassed a whole 61 yards across his other 15 carries, good for 4.1 YPC.

Good luck mucking the game up with 4.1 YPC.

Ward’s defense will deliver him the ball enough to control the game script.

The Beavers can’t create explosive plays, which is fine in most weeks. But that’s actually bad in this matchup, given preventing Explosiveness is Washington State's biggest weakness.

And if you put DJ in passing downs, I’m not expecting him to rise to the occasion, especially against a Wazzu defense that ranks 28th in Passing Downs Success Rate Allowed.

Also, sure, your Beavers went 10-3 last year. They also won three games by a combined eight points. Imagine beating Stanford by one lousy point.

Ianniello: Brother, I’ll take 4.1 yards per carry all day. That means you hand the ball off three times, you’ve got yourself a first down.

Oregon State has been excellent at remaining on schedule with its offense and avoiding third-and-long situations. It should continue to thrive in this matchup.

The Beavers rank 10th in the country in Standard Down Success Rate. Washington State ranks 85th in defense on Standard Downs.

That means Oregon State will be able to move the ball on early downs and always be in manageable third down situations, where it has the option to run the ball or throw the ball.

And while Tanner doesn’t think the Beavers will have success on Passing Downs, they rank 11th in the country in Success Rate on Passing Downs.

This is not your older brother’s DJU. He's escaped the outdated philosophy of Dabo and that Clemson offense and is finally showing the talent and upside that made him the top quarterback recruit.

Oregon State went 10-3 last year with a future car salesman playing quarterback. Now the Beavers have a legitimate dual-threat weapon with a ton of talent leading this offense. That will only allow them to open up things even more.

Meanwhile, Washington State managed just 10 points on offense when it faced the Beavers last season. The Cougars ran the ball for 23 total yards and this defense was able to totally shut down the Cougars in the red zone.

Oregon State sacked Ward six times and racked up nine tackles for loss, as its defense wreaked havoc on the Cougars' front. Oregon State had a 47% Success Rate in that game.

Now you add DJ and a passing threat to that mix, and this team has even more upside than it did last year, tilting the matchup even more in its favor.

McGrath: The whole point of my introductory paragraph is that Ward was overlooked and undervalued. You have a college degree (albeit from Penn State). Show some intuition. Read between the lines.

You’re super high on Oregon State’s defense, but I’m unsure. This unit lost 70% of its tackles and pass breakups from last year. Three cornerbacks left in the offseason, and the Beavers should sorely miss linebacker Omar Speights, who led the team in tackles, tackles for loss and quarterback hits.

The Beavers were excellent in coverage grades last season, but they should take a significant step back once they aren’t playing against Jalen Mayden. They were 110th in PFF’s Pressure grades last year, lost their best pressure guy and now are 82nd in those grades in non-conference play.

You mentioned how they have 12 sacks; six of those came against Mayden, the converted safety turned quarterback.

The Beavers have prevented explosive plays, but they’re 47th in Pass Success Rate against. Meanwhile, Ward is happy to take what defenses give him, given Wazzu is 12th in Pass Success Rate.

If anything, Ward’s low aDOT is a good thing against a defense thats main strength is keeping everything in front of it. Ward is happy to get the ball out quickly and kill ‘em with paper cuts.

Washington State might be one-dimensional, but I’m not sold on DJ, so I expect Oregon State to be one-dimensional, too.

The difference is Wazzu can take away the Beavers’ run game, but the Beavers' fresh-faced defense won’t stop Ward.

While all the Pac-12 offenses turn to a flashy style of play and exciting quarterbacks, it's consistently Utah which emerges as the conference champion by playing defense and running the football.

That's exactly what Oregon State does.

Ward might be able to light up a Mountain West squad and a rebuilding Wisconsin team, but he struggled in conference play last season.

And I’ll still take DJ over Ward every day of the week and twice on Saturday. This is not the same quarterback we saw at Clemson, and we'e finally seeing that five-star talent emerge.

Oregon State has the best running back in the conference, an elite offensive line and still has one of the better defenses in the Pac-12. That's what wins football games.

Add in the upside at quarterback, and I’ll take the Beavers across the board here.

In a game between the final two teams left in the Pac-12, the Beavers will emerge victorious, thus the true King of the Pac-12.

So, why isn’t Ward in the elite Pac-12 quarterback conversation? He’s been a god in non-conference play, dropping a combined 81 points on Colorado State and Wisco while covering both games (including beating Wisconsin outright as a 5.5-point dog).

Meanwhile, why is Uigalelei in the elite Pac-12 quarterback conversation? He had one great game against San Jose State and one terrible one against San Diego State, so now he’s fixed? He’s capitalized on his full potential?

Look at what DJU did in his final six games in a Clemson uniform against ACC competition.

Wazzu will stack the box and make Uiagelelei beat it through the air, and that’s the quarterback I expect to show up.

Meanwhile, Ward will slice and dice a young, inexperienced defense facing its toughest test yet.

The market hasn’t caught up to Ward and the Cougars yet, but the world can’t stop talking about DJU’s three touchdown passes against the Spartans. I think this is the case of the wrong team being favored.

Add the solid situational spot, and the fact that the Beavers are 2-4 ATS as road favorites in the Smith era, and the Cougars are the clear right side catching three points at home.

I love Ward and Wazzu here.