Notre Dame vs. Georgia Odds & Prediction: Bettors Loving Bulldogs

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Odds & Prediction: Bettors Loving Bulldogs article feature image
Credit:

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zamir White

  • Get updated Notre Dame vs. Georgia betting odds and our mathematical prediction for the game here.
  • The Bulldogs are a 15.5-point favorite in the latest odds, and have on-paper advantages all over the place.

Notre Dame at Georgia Odds

  • Odds: Georgia -15.5
  • Over/Under: 59
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

All odds above as of Saturday at 12 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

College football games like Notre Dame at Georgia don’t come around too often.

This marquee, top 10 matchup has all the makings for a classic based on the names, but the betting market doesn’t like the Irish’s chances. More than 73% of the money we’re tracking is on the Bulldogs to cover this two-touchdown spread.

Below, get our power ratings prediction and get our picks for free in The Action Network app.

Wilson’s Model Prediction for Notre Dame at Georgia

Collin Wilson uses an oddsmaker-style approach to creating his own power ratings that can set a point spread between any two teams on a neutral field. 

Action EDGE members can get his projections for every Week 4 game here, and his full power ratings for all 130 teams are here.

  • Spread: Georgia -11.8
  • Over/Under: 71.5

One Key for Notre Dame

Stop the run. At least try.

We covered this game in-depth here, but the biggest mismatch on paper is Georgia’s mammoth offensive line and dynamic rushing attack against a Notre Dame defensive line that ranks outside the top 100 in most metrics.

Without some drastic schematic improvements, the Dawgs should run all over Notre Dame.

One Key for Georgia

Prove that the defense can be 2017-esque.

Last year, Georgia was solid on defense but didn’t have the same tenacious pass rush or disruptive linebackers like it did when it almost won the national title two years ago.

This year, we expected Georgia to take some steps forward in that department, and it has, but the schedule hasn’t exactly been challenging.

One Trend

No. 3 Georgia is a 14-point favorite vs. No. 7 Notre Dame. Since 2005. In regular season matchups of Top 10 teams, favorites of 14 or more points have gone 10-1 straight up (8-3 ATS) winning on average by 23.6 points.

Our Pick on Notre Dame vs. Georgia

I need a lot of supporting evidence to go against my power ratings — which have Notre Dame at +11.8 — and play a massive public favorite.

But that’s the situation I find myself in.

I can’t just can’t find a situational, mathematical or personnel-based reason to take the Irish.

Even the most contrarian bettor in the world would struggle to back the Irish. If lowly New Mexico could average 4.6 yards per carry on 46 attempts in South Bend then the Bulldogs should thrive in Week 4 behind the best offensive line in the country. — Collin Wilson

Odds & Line Shopping for Other Key College Football Games

Michigan State at Northwestern (+9, 37)
Michigan at Wisconsin (-3, 44.5)
California at Ole Miss (-2.5, 41.5)
Tennessee at Florida (-14, 48.5)
Southern Mississippi at Alabama (-38, 61.5)
LSU at Vanderbilt (+24, 62.5)
Miami (Ohio) at Ohio State (-38.5, 56)
UCF at Pittsburgh (+10.5, 61)
Washington at BYU (+6.5, 51)
Auburn at Texas A&M (-4, 47.5)
Notre Dame at Georgia (-14.5, 57.5)
SMU at TCU (-8, 55)
Central Michigan at Miami (Fla.) (-29.5, 48.5)
Kentucky at Mississippi State (-6, 47.5)
South Carolina at Missouri (-9, 61)
Oregon at Stanford (+10.5, 57.5)
Charlotte at Clemson (-41.5, 61.5)
Oklahoma State at Texas (-7, 72.5)
Nebraska at Illinois (+13.5, 62)
Colorado at Arizona State (-8.5, 48.5)
UCLA at Washington State (-18.5, 58)

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