Notre Dame vs. Georgia Betting Odds & Pick: Do Irish Have One Advantage Over Bulldogs?

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Betting Odds & Pick: Do Irish Have One Advantage Over Bulldogs? article feature image
Credit:

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jake Fromm.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Betting Odds 

  • Odds: Georgia -14.5
  • Over/Under: 58
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS

All odds above as of Saturday at 5 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

In 2007, Notre Dame lost 41-14 to LSU. Six years later in 2013, it lost 42-14 to Alabama.

Those marked the only times over the past 15 years that Notre Dame faced an SEC team ranked in the top 5. Well, it’s now six years later.

Is it time for another blowout, this time against Georgia?

Odds Movement on Notre Dame vs. Georgia

The Notre Dame vs. Georgia line was released down at -11.5 at the first books to town, but obviously has had a bit of a shift since then. Behind 63% of bets and 71% of money, Georgia has moved completely through the key number of 14 and is now favored by more than two touchdowns.

The activity on the total has been much more split (52% of bets and 58% of money on the over), which has settled this line at the opening number of 58. — Danny Donahue

Wilson: Trying to Find a Reason to Back Notre Dame

I need a lot of supporting evidence to go against my power ratings and play a massive public favorite. But that’s the situation I find myself in.

I can’t just can’t find a situational, mathematical or personnel-based reason to do it.

I just can’t take the Irish.

Even the most contrarian bettor in the world would struggle to back the Irish. If lowly New Mexico could average 4.6 yards per carry on 46 attempts in South Bend then the Bulldogs should thrive in Week 4 behind the best offensive line in the country.

Georgia’s offensive line is the best in the nation in almost every statistic:

  • Line yards
  • Opportunity rate
  • Standard downs sack rate

The line has helped new offensive coordinator James Coley execute some explosive plays early this season.

The Notre Dame defensive line, normally stout, has not put up the same advanced splits thus far in the season.

The Irish are top 15 in Havoc so far in the season through just a sample of 150 plays, but the defensive line is 119th in opportunity rate.

That means teams are getting four yards with relative ease, and the Irish line isn’t doing anything to put teams in bad situations on third down.

Further, Notre Dame is 101st in passing downs sack rate, meaning quarterback Jake Fromm will have plenty of time to execute if Georgia does fall behind the sticks.

Finally, the Irish are 117th in opponent third down conversion rate. They just can’t get off the field in key situations. We saw it against Louisville, where Notre Dame needed turnovers to get off the field.

That will be a huge issue against Georgia’s mammoth offensive line and seemingly unlimited stable of star running backs, who rotate frequently and stay fresh.

Assuming health and turnovers do not play a large factor, Georgia should be able to name the score. Collin Wilson

Collin’s Pick: Georgia -14.5

Stuckey: Is 14.5 Too Many Points?

The biggest question mark is how can Notre Dame stop Georgia’s elite rush offense. An offense that has averaged 7.6 yards per carry, which ranks fifth in the nation.

Unfortunately for Irish fans, I don’t think there’s an answer. Notre Dame is one of only 24 teams in the country that is allowing 5.0 or more yards per rush, meaning ND sits outside of the top 100 in the most important defensive category when facing Georgia. And that’s after facing Louisville and New Mexico. The former ran for 249 yards, while the lowly Lobos ran for 212.

ND just can’t match up along the defensive line, as they are simply overmatched against Georgia’s gigantic offensive front. The Bulldogs average a school-record 6-foot-5, 328 pounds along the offensive line and might just have the best unit in all of college football. Notre Dame has extremely talented and speedy defensive ends that can cause havoc but the interior will likely be dominated by Georgia.

And on the other side of the ball, there are major question marks surrounding the Notre Dame offensive line, which has struggled at times to generate push against two inferior opponents to start the year. Georgia should have the edge in both the speed and power departments. That’s a deadly combination.

Throw in a special teams advantage for Georgia in a game under the lights on a Saturday night in Athens and this could get ugly.

That said, I can’t lay 14.5 since it’s about right where I make the number. If a 13.5 pops, I’ll certainly consider Georgia but this looks like a stay away and look for a live opportunity on Georgia if ND takes an early lead. Stuckey

Stuckey’s Pick: Georgia only -13.5 or better

Trends

No. 3 Georgia is a 14-point favorite vs. No. 7 Notre Dame. Since 2005. In regular season matchups of Top 10 teams, favorites of 14 or more points have gone 10-1 straight up (8-3 ATS) winning on average by 23.6 points. John Ewing

More than 65% of spread tickets are on Georgia to cover. Since 2005, in Top 10 matchups, the teams receiving a majority of bets have gone 74-94-3 (44%) ATS. John Ewing

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