Overrated, Underrated College Football Teams in the Week 7 AP Top 25

Oct 09, 2018 10:00 AM EDT
  • Here are the biggest discrepancies between how AP voters, oddsmakers and The Action Network have ranked college football teams after Week 6.
  • For example: The Central Florida Knights jumped to No. 10 in the AP poll, but would be a pick'em against lower-ranked teams.
  • Meanwhile, the No. 12 Michigan Wolverines would be favored against higher-ranked teams.

The College Football Playoff selection committee is only three weeks away from releasing its first set of rankings. Once the numbers are released, this column will evolve into “Overrated, Underrated Playoff Teams” with suggestions on market value for potential champions.

There is a bit of a shakeup in the current AP Top 25 with Oklahoma, LSU and Auburn all suffering losses that knocked each out of the top 10.

The current top 10 has new entries with Texas, Penn State and Central Florida, while the bottom four spots belong to new entries in the poll, including Texas A&M, South Florida, Mississippi State and Cincinnati.

With The Action Network’s Week 7 projections and power ratings in mind, let’s take a look at the most overrated and underrated teams in the AP Top 25.


Overrated College Football Teams

Central Florida Knights

West Virginia became a regular in this column, but we gave the Mountaineers a break in this week’s rankings, even with plenty of Will Grier interceptions against Kansas.

Central Florida beat SMU by 28 points to cover the closing line of 24.5 in Week 6.

But the Knights have a strength of schedule rank of 124th, which should permanently keep them from sniffing the College Football Playoff. UCF is currently 23rd in our power ratings, making the Knights a pick’em against Miami or TCU at a neutral site.

If Central Florida survives Memphis this weekend, the Nov. 17 meeting with Cincinnati has potential to crown a Group of Five champion.

Miami Hurricanes

Miami was able to escape its matchup with Florida State with a one-point victory. The Seminoles led 20-7 at halftime and were up 27-7 in the third quarter before the Hurricanes launched a 21-point comeback led by N’Kosi Perry and his four touchdowns.

One concern is Perry’s ability to protect the ball. He had two fumbles in this past Saturday’s game, one of which Florida State recovered. Perry had the same issues against North Carolina the week before that.

Although Virginia is 20th in our power ratings, the Cavaliers rank 10th in overall Havoc and could upset the Canes.

South Florida Bulls

The inclusion of the Bulls in the AP poll was a bit eyebrow raising, as they’re power rated in the range of Baylor and Arizona. For context, the AP poll’s 24th-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs would be an 11.5-point favorite at a neutral site against the Bulls.

South Florida did cover the 14.5-point spread against UMass this past Saturday, but beat East Carolina and Illinois by only a combined 13 points in prior weeks.

Underrated College Football Teams

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan has been on this list frequently since an opening loss to Notre Dame. With Wisconsin on deck, this could be the last week that people are not talking about the Wolverines.

Shea Patterson is improving within the offense each week, while the defense is posting top-10 rush numbers along with an adjusted sack rate of fifth.

The Wolverines are No. 12 in the AP poll, but would be favored over current top 10 teams such as West Virginia, Washington and Texas.

Utah Utes

The Utes beat Stanford 40-21 in Week 6, but only received five votes in the AP poll. Utah is 17th in our power ratings, making the Utes vastly underrated by the AP voters.

Stanford did have four turnovers in last weekend’s game, but Utah will start the meat of its Pac-12 schedule after suffering losses to Washington and Washington State.

Credit:

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
MSU
MICH
+6.5
47.5
+7.5
41
LSU
MSST
-6.5
44.5
-6.5
45.5
TEM
CIN
-3.5
48.5
-3.5
47.5
ECU
UCF
+24
64.5
+21.5
65
USF
CONN
-31
70
-32.5
69
WASH
COLO
-17
51
-17.5
50
TCU
OKLA
+7.5
61
+7.5
62
WSU
ORE
-2
66
-3
69
UK
VAN
-11.5
48
-12.5
46.5
TENN
BAMA
+28.5
58
+29
57.5
CLEM
NCST
-17
53.5
-17.5
57.5
IOWA
MD
-13.5
51.5
-9
44
PUR
OSU
+12
64.5
+12
69
WISC
ILL
-25.5
54.5
-24
57
IND
PSU
+13
62
+14.5
59.5