Virginia Tech vs. Virginia Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Are Hokies Getting Too Much Love?
Peter Casey, USA Today Sports.
- Virginia Tech as a 2-point road favorite over Virginia in the latest odds for Saturday's Commonwealth Cup (12 p.m. ET, ABC).
- Bettors have been all over the Hokies this week, flipping them from an underdog to a favorite behind 69% of the bets.
- Our experts break down Virginia Tech vs. Virginia from every angle and give their betting picks and predictions.
Virginia Tech vs. Virginia Odds
- Spread: Virginia Tech -2
- Over/Under: 47
- TV: ABC
- Time: Friday, 12 p.m. ET
The Commonwealth Cup always means something to the teams involved, but for the first time in a long time, it means something in the bigger picture.
The winner of Friday’s Virginia Tech vs. Virginia game will clinch the ACC Coastal and give itself a good shot to get the league’s Orange Bowl spot, assuming Clemson reaches the College Football Playoff.
So will UVA or Tech prevail on Friday? Let’s dive in from every betting angle.
Virginia Tech at Virginia Line Movement
After opening this spread in the range of Virginia -1, oddsmakers have had plenty of adjustments to make thanks to the response from bettors.
Sixty-eight percent have taken the Hokies, which sent the line all the way up to Tech -3 before a wave of sharp action hit Virginia at the key number to drive it back to -2.5. The 32% of bets landing on the Cavs have now generated 47% of money landing on the spread.
The total hasn’t seen a whole lot of movement, though some of the books that opened on the higher end (around 48.5) have dropped the number a bit to the consensus of 47.5. While bettors are completely split, the money distribution has shown 69% of dollars to be landing on the under. — Danny Donahue
Collin Wilson: Is the Virginia Tech Steam Warranted?
Circa Sports opened this line as a pick ’em, but it has since moved to Virginia Tech -3. Why has the market steamed the Hokies?
First of all, Virginia Tech has absolutely dominated this series, losing just once to Virginia since 1998. That lone win came in 2003 in a 35-21 win for the Cavaliers in Charlottesville.
The Hokies also happen to be one of the hottest teams in the country. Virginia Tech has covered five games on the spin, including a near-upset of Notre Dame. The Hokies have won their last two ACC games by a combined score of 73-0, thanks to an improved defense and dynamic quarterback play from Hendon Hooker.
Since he was installed as the No. 1 quarterback on Oct. 5, Hooker has 10 touchdowns and no interceptions to go along with four scores on the ground. Hooker passed a significant test against Pitt’s fantastic defense, one that ranks inside the top-10 in defensive havoc and opponent passing success rate.
The Action Network projected spread for this game is Virginia -2, so there is plenty of value in this number. There are plenty of positives for Virginia Tech, but overlook this Virginia team at your own peril. I will be looking to back the Wahoos at +3 or better leading up to kick.
Stuckey: Sell High on Hooker, Va Tech?
To me, this handicap boils down to how much of an upgrade you believe Hendon Hooker is at quarterback for the Hokies. The sophomore has been unbelievable since taking over under center (10 TD, 0 INT) and a clear improvement from the previous quarterback situation.
Before he did get the starting job, I had this line as Virginia -6 in Charlottesville. I made Hooker a 5-point upgrade, so that would adjust this line to Virginia -1. Maybe I’m still underestimating Hooker, but my current numbers also have value on the Hoos. To me, these are now two even teams in all three phases of the game.
One area of concern for Virginia will be its depleted secondary. The Cavs will really miss All-American corner Bryce Hall against an offense that ranks ninth in passing explosiveness.
This game could come down to whether or not the Hokies can break off big plays through the air. I don’t expect Virginia Tech’s lackluster rushing attack to have much success and Bronco Mendenhall’s aggressive defense has still been efficient at defending the pass and getting after the quarterback.
In a game for all of the marbles in the ACC Coastal division, I think you have to snag a little +3 with the more experienced quarterback in matchup of two mirrors. I also will be grabbing a small piece of the Under 47.5 in a game I think both defensive lines can control the line of scrimmage. And with so much on the line, you may see both coaches approach this very conservatively, at least early on. I also love having a great punter in my back pocket when I bet an under and the Hokies certainly have one in Oscar Bradburn.