Week 3 College Football Chalk Talk Picks: Our Favorite Week 3 Favorites, Including Iowa vs. Nevada (Sept. 17)
Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam LaPorta #84 of the Iowa Hawkeyes.
- There are a number of big favorites in Week 3, but some hold more betting value than others.
- Stuckey and Collin Wilson dive into their top favorites for this college football Saturday, including Iowa vs. Nevada and Georgia vs. South Carolina.
- Check out both of their breakdowns and picks for Week 3 betting favorites below.
You may be familiar with our weekly underdog moneyline article. Well, we decided this year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we cover weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs" thanks to one of our beloved callers.
After sweeping both bets in Week 1, we went just 1-1 last weekend. ECU got to the window for me, but Collin decided to play with fire by laying points with Graham Mertz. Not surprisingly, he ended up covered in third-degree burns.
YTD: 3-1 +1.9 units
Wilson: Georgia -24.5
-110o / -110u
|South Carolina Odds|
-110o / -110u
Let's go with something a little more reliable this week.
After all of the attrition on defense, the Bulldogs look just fine on that side of the ball after terrorizing Samford and Oregon. They've allowed opponents to reach the red zone just twice while allowing them to cross the 40-yard-line just five times. Neither opponent scored a touchdown.
Kirby Smart's bunch also ranks as the best coverage team in the country.
Even more impressively, the offense has been firing on all cylinders, ranking third in Standard Downs Success Rate. These Bulldogs can move the chains on the ground and through the air.
Meanwhile, South Carolina may have a victory under its belt, but the box scores have been littered with inefficient play. Alongside a net turnover ratio of plus-four, the Gamecocks beat Georgia State despite getting outgained.
In Week 2, Arkansas ran for nearly 300 yards and threw for 162 more while dominating the trench. South Carolina has a bottom-10 rank in Havoc Allowed, which accounts for tackles for loss, interceptions, pass breakups and fumbles.
If the offensive trench is not protecting Spencer Rattler, an opportunistic Georgia defense will feast.
I'd argue South Carolina has the weakest trench play in the SEC, which spells disaster against the defending national champions. Georgia should cruise.
Pick: Georgia -24.5
Stuckey: Iowa -23
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
I never thought I'd be doing this with Iowa, but I do show significant value in this number in a very good buy-low spot after everybody and their mother has spent the past week ripping the Hawkeyes.
The Nevada offense will struggle to do much of anything on the road against this Iowa defense after facing New Mexico State, Texas State and Incarnate Word over its first three games. It's a massive step up in competition, and I wouldn't be shocked if Nevada gets shut out in a game I project it to score under four points.
Therefore, the question becomes if Iowa can get to at least 24 points. Well, there will be chances for both the defense and special teams to score, which we've seen often in the past from the Hawkeyes. Think about it: a pick-six, a long field goal and seven safeties gets them to 24.
In all seriousness, the Iowa offense should enjoy more success in this matchup. It's a pathetic unit, but so is Nevada's defense.
Nevada allowed over 300 yards to an inept New Mexico State offense and just got shredded by FCS Incarnate Word in a 55-41 loss. And if Spencer Petras can't get anything going early, I'm assuming Iowa will make a quarterback change.
The Wolf Pack also have major regression coming their way. After leading the nation in turnover margin in 2021, they lead the country in turnovers forced at 11 through three games. Their current +9 turnover margin is primarily the result of unsustainable flukes.
Additionally, Nevada's three opponents have been penalized 34 times for 307 yards.
Well, what does Iowa almost always do well under head coach Kirk Ferentz? The Hawkeyes don't make mistakes and will dominate special teams. Unsurprisingly, Iowa leads the country in fewest penalty yards per game this season.
Pick: Iowa -23