Browns vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 12, 2025

There is a value opportunity on Dillon Gabriel's TD passes prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.00 TD passes, while sportsbooks imply 1.21. The model believes there is a 53% chance he records fewer than 0.5 TD passes, so there is some value on the under at +145. (This play is good down to at least +116.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Back in Week 2 I identified this being the ideal market to fade Jonnu. Sure enough he hauled in a 21 yard catch that week (because of course he did lol). But has yet to have a 10+ yard catch since. He’s seeing most of his targets around the line of scrimmage (0.5 aDot) so has to get most of his yards after the catch. He gets an even bigger hit against the Browns heavy man usage (1st) as his routes run rate drops over a full yard vs. man. Have this closer to 12.5-13 with around a 60% chance he stays under 14.5

Adding a touch so you grab 5.5 before it’s gone I took Steelers -4.5 when this game re-opened Sunday night on the Hot Read, and I still like it even as the line rises toward -7. This is the single biggest schedule advantage spot on the NFL calendar this season. The Browns are on the road trip from hell. They played last Sunday morning in London after playing in Detroit the week before, and now fly back across the ocean again to play in Pittsburgh. NFL teams that play overseas are given the option to take a bye the following week but Cleveland declined and will now pay the price, a third straight road game with warped body clocks and exhausted travelers. But it gets worse! The Steelers are playing with an extra week of rest. They too played overseas — their last game is also overseas against the Vikings! — but they took the early bye and haven't played for two weeks. That turned out to be fortuitous timing for a team that's struggled to gel early and whose defense has been poor amidst a slew of veteran injuries to an older roster. Pittsburgh looks much healthier now coming out of the bye. Corners Jalen Ramsey and Joey Porter return as the secondary should be its healthiest all season, and RB Jaylen Warren is back too. It looks like pass rusher Alex Highsmith should also rejoin T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig, forming the league's most fearsome pass rushing corps. These are huge star names back for Pittsburgh, worth over 1.5 points to the spread for the Steelers. That defense had a chance to get healthy and find itself during the bye week, and now it gets a home game against Dillon Gabriel making his second start and his first true road start, in a hostile environment against a division foe. The home team has won seven straight in this rivalry by an average of nine points, and Mike Tomlin has won seven straight games after a bye week, covering six of the seven. Home favorites tend to play well in the first half out of the bye, which should set up Pittsburgh to play on the front foot and overwhelm Gabriel, and Kevin Stefanski is an ugly 11-21 ATS (34%) in division games. All the old Aaron Rodgers trends say to back him too — as a favorite, at home, in the division, off a bye week. This is a spot I've had circled on the calendar since the schedule came out, the sort of schedule advantage that can't even be quantified — the type you can almost bet blind. I liked Steelers -4.5 and still like them at -5.5 (DraftKings). We know seven is a key number, but those sevens have been slowly fading toward sixes and even fives in recent years as scoring varies with two-point conversions. Be sure to grab before six if you can, and with a daunting upcoming schedule, considering using the Steelers in your Survivor competition.

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/QzEiDAmkmXb

FD

Tailing @wheatonbrando

Have this at 41.3. That's without boosting the Browns after Gabriel's debut, even though he exceeded expectations, given he was facing Brian Flores overseas at a massive travel disadvantage. Steelers' offense has been good, and the injuries to Calvin Austin and Jalen Ramsey may cancel out in their effect on the total.

Horrible spot for the Browns with no bye off their London game, facing a Steelers team with a week to prepare/get healthy.

@wheatonbrando Week 6 Hot Read https://myaction.app/jslDWc2rfXb

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