Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly, so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
Here are the NFL Week 6 picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 6 Picks
Browns vs Steelers Spread Pick
This spot is an absolute gift for the Steelers. They played in Ireland in Week 4 and had a bye in Week 5 while the Browns lost to the Vikings in London. Now, the Browns are on the road once more for a tough divisional game?
Not to mention, the Steelers have been dealing with injuries (Jaylen Warren, Alex Highsmith, Joey Porter Jr.) and got some time to heal up. That's huge for an older team against a younger Browns team entering an unfavorable situation — it's worth noting this will be Dillon Gabriel's first true road start.
The Browns defense will be the best unit that takes the field in this game, but Aaron Rodgers and his quick release could mitigate their effectiveness.
Trends to know:
- The home team has won seven straight games in this rivalry by an average of nine PPG.
- Home favorites of seven points or fewer are 57% ATS in the first half when playing after a bye week.
- Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski is 11-21 ATS (34%) in divisional games.
Pick: Steelers -4.5 (bet365)
Chargers vs Dolphins Spread Pick
I found the Dolphins offense to be quite unimpressive on Sunday; they posted -0.44 EPA per play and a 36% success rate against a bad Panthers defense.
Watching it unfold was a bit bizarre. For example, Darren Waller posted a 5/78/1 receiving line in the first half and then wasn't targeted in the second half.
Miami entered Week 5 ranked in the bottom 10 in Pass DVOA; the Chargers pass defense ranked third. The Dolphins have a gimmick offense that's made worse by the absence of Tyreek Hill. Life is just harder for Tua Tagovailoa when he doesn't have Hill stretching the field.
As for the Dolphins defense, it's a bottom-three unit coming in 31st in DVOA. The pass defense is especially bad; the rush isn't getting home and that's key against a Chargers team with a banged-up offensive line.
Justin Herbert has some of the best weapons to work with in the league — Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston — and he should be able to carve up Miami.
This is a great spot to back Jim Harbaugh and fade Mike McDaniel.
- Harbaugh is 61% ATS vs. sub-.500 teams
- Harbaugh is 28-8 ATS (78%) as a favorite under six points
- McDaniel is 35% ATS vs. teams above .500 and 39% ATS as an underdog
In addition, road favorites of 3+ after losing at home as a favorite are 100-68-7 ATS (60%).
Pick: Chargers -4.5 (FanDuel)