The Cleveland Browns (1-4) and Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) face off in Week on Sunday, Oct. 12. Kickoff is set for in 1:00 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
The Steelers are 6-point favorites on the spread over the Browns (Steelers -6); the game total is 38. Pittsburgh is a -270 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Cleveland is +225.
Who has the edge in this Week 6 AFC North clash? Find my preview and Browns vs Steelers prediction for today's game below.
Browns vs Steelers Prediction
- Browns vs Steelers pick: Over 38.5; bet to Over 39.5
My Browns vs Steelers best bet is the over on the game total. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Browns vs Steelers Odds
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | -270 |
Browns vs Steelers Week 6 Preview
Cleveland Browns Betting Preview: Gabriel, Judkins Lead Way
Dillon Gabriel had a solid performance in his NFL debut, and while his average depth of target was only 5.5 yards, he dealt with an aggressive Vikings defense well.
Against a blitz rate of 34%, Gabriel took only two sacks and successfully distributed the ball by getting it out of his hands quickly. This is extremely important to note because Pittsburgh has the second-highest blitz rate at 37%.
Cleveland has scored more than 17 points only once this season, but its running game has been a consistent force since Quinshon Judkins became the featured running back.
Without a few costly penalties, the numbers would be even more impressive for the rookie from Ohio State. Judkins' 2.6 yards per attempt after contact is right in line with the likes of Bijan Robinson, James Cook and Derrick Henry.
Gabriel will continue to gain comfort in Kevin Stefanski’s system and he’ll have his chances to take shots down the field with the Steelers putting an extra defender in the box to defend the run at the third-highest rate in the NFL.
Keep in mind, the Steelers have held only one team to fewer than 20 points in four games, and that was against a Patriots offense that made costly self-inflicted errors near the goal line.
The Browns defense has kept them in nearly every game this season and is one of the strongest units in the league. With that said, they just traded their best coverage corner in Greg Newsome, which is a significant development considering this defense plays man defense at the highest rate in football.
The Browns already ranked in the bottom half of the league as a pass defense, according to adjusted net yards per attempt.
Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview: Feelin' Fresh Off Bye Week
The Steelers defense has not had a good start to the season, with one of the main reasons being their ranking of 23rd in pressure rate without the blitz. They rank 19th in adjusted net yards per pass allowed and they have surrendered multiple touchdown passes in three consecutive games.
There is a chance they will get Alex Highsmith and Joey Porter Jr. back for this game, but they will be without Jalen Ramsey on the outside due to a hamstring injury.
Only the Cowboys' pass defense has fared worse in terms of completion percentage over expectation and adjusted completion percentage than the Steelers on the back end. Dillon Gabriel will be efficient and should complete a much higher percentage of his throws than his debut (57.6%).
Cleveland will also be without the benefit of a bye week after playing in London. The Steelers are the well-rested team and had extra time to prepare for the Browns’ pass rush.
Arthur Smith and Aaron Rodgers will use the quick passing attack to sustain drives against a defense that couldn’t limit the likes of Carson Wentz when it mattered most.
Browns vs Steelers Prediction, Betting Analysis
When you think of the AFC North and the battles that occur within the division, the thoughts of low-scoring slogs often come to mind.
This matchup between the Steelers and Browns features the lowest total of Week 6. However, only one of the previous seven meetings between two teams have seen fewer than 40 points scored.
The Steelers' offensive line has played better in pass protection than they have been given credit for, allowing a 26% pressure rate, good for fourth-best in the NFL.
While I do not believe this game suddenly turns into a shootout, games involving the Steelers this season have averaged 48.5 points per game. This total is 2-3 points too low at its current price of 37.5, and I’d play this up to 39.5.
Pick: Over 38.5; bet to Over 39.5
Spread
I don't see value in the spread line today.
Moneyline
I'm also not betting on either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I see the total line so low for this matchup, so I'll go with the over here.
