A fantastic Thursday Night Football game, seven divisional matchups and two great night games highlight a great Week 14. Also, we have a total of 33.5 and a total of 53.5 in the same week, fun chaos.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 14 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Dec. 2, at 12 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
Crowded Futures
Year of Chaos
The story of the 2025 season is one simple word: parody.
Entering Week 14, we have 17 teams listed below 50-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, which is the most for any season dating back to 2010. The previous high was 15 teams back in 2017.
Right now, there are 12 teams at least 4 games above .500 SU entering Week 14, tied for the most in NFL history, and all 12 of those teams are under 50-1 to win it all.
Digging a bit deeper. We have 10 teams currently listed below 20-1 odds to win it all, which is the most such teams since we had 11 back in 2010.
Under The Radar
Wind Season
Windy unders have been a theme in 2025. Here is the updated weather report for Week 14.
Early Rollercoaster
What A Turn
The 1 p.m. ET window on Sundays has been a rollercoaster.
- Since Week 9, favorites are 9-27-1 ATS in the early 1p ET Sunday window of games.
- The first 8 weeks of the season, favorites went 39-20 ATS in that early Sunday window.
Public Problem
Gone in 60 Seconds
According to Action Network's betting data, NFL teams getting 60% of tickets or more are 46-78 ATS (37%) through 13 weeks.
These 60%+ ticket teams are below .500 ATS in 12 of 13 weeks. The 37% mark is the worst through 13 weeks in the 23-year history of our database.
Here's the kicker: combining both notes.
In games played in that same 1p ET window or earlier, teams with 60%+ spread ticket are 15-47 ATS this year, including 4-21 ATS since Week 9.
Deadly Sin
Hold The Door
Turnovers have never been more deadly. Teams that turn it over 2+ times this year are 30-99 SU (23%) and 34-94-1 ATS (26.6%). The SU mark is the worst for any season since 1990, and the ATS mark is 2nd-worst behind just 2021.
Two Sides
Different Directions
A changing of the guards. This season, the NFC West is 23-10 ATS facing teams outside their division, best mark in the NFL and the 3rd-best mark for any division since 1990 (best mark since 2013 NFC West).
On the other side, the AFC North is 12-21-1 ATS facing teams outside their division, worst in the NFL, and worst for the AFC North in that same span, and worst for any division since the 2016 NFC West.
Every NFL Game For Week 14
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➤Overs and overs for Dallas. They are 8-4 to the over this year, best mark in the NFL. Dallas is also 10-2 to their team total over, best mark in the NFL.
They are also 5-1 ATS as underdogs and 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year. In their six games as underdogs, they’ve scored 20+ pts in all six games.
➤The two staples of Thanksgiving now face off on Thursday Night Football a week later – the first time they have ever played the week after Thanksgiving.
- After the Thanksgiving game, coming up for the Lions. Detroit has won five straight games after Thanksgiving, going 4-0-1 ATS in those games. Since 2005, Lions are 7-13 SU, 10-9-1 ATS the game after Thanksgiving.
- Last 20 years, Dallas is 13-8 SU, 9-11-1 ATS the game after Thanksgiving. Even after dropping their game after Thanksgiving to the Bengals last year, they have won 8 of their last 11 games SU the game after Thanksgiving.
➤The last time these two teams met, Lions got their revenge. In Week 17, 2023, Dallas beat Detroit 20-19 on the ineligible 2-point conversion to Taylor Decker. Last October, Lions beat the Cowboys 47-9, getting payback.
In their last seven meetings, the Cowboys are 6-1 SU and just 3-4 ATS in those matchups.
➤Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 18-12-1 SU, 22-9 ATS off of a SU loss as a duo, but they’ve won 14 in a row outright dating back to November 1st of 2022, going 13-1 ATS in that spot, failing to cover vs. the Giants in Week 12.
In Goff’s career, he is 24-8 ATS indoors off a SU loss and just 10-14-1 ATS playing outdoors. As a head coach, Dan Campbell is 25-15 ATS off a loss.
➤Cowboys have had some two weeks, beating both the Eagles and the Chiefs in consecutive games to stay in the playoff race.
Since 2013, teams off beating b2b teams who had a double-digit win total in the preseason, are just 11-17-1 ATS in their 8th game of the season or later. Eagles lost to the Cowboys in Week 12 at this same spot.
➤Lions defense allowed 31 pts to the Packers at home on Thanksgiving and now look to bounce back.
As a head coach, Campbell is 16-8 ATS after allowing 30+ pts, including 15-4 ATS as coach of the Lions and 11-2 ATS at home in Detroit.
➤In the Lions' last three games, they have gone a combined 0-7 on 4th down, including 0-2 last week vs. Packers
Since the start of last season, Lions are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS the week after not converting any 4th downs with at least one attempted.
➤Any hangover after facing the Chiefs? Last two seasons, teams listed as an underdog after facing the Chiefs are 1-13 SU and 5-9 ATS.
➤When the Cowboys don’t have to lay points, they’ve done well. Cowboys are 5-1 ATS (3-2-1 SU) as underdogs and 2-4 ATS as favorites this season.
Cowboys haven’t finished a season above .500 SU as an underdog since 2016.
➤Since the start of 2022, Dak has started nine games in an early-week spot (before Sunday). The Cowboys are 8-1 SU in those games after beating the Chiefs last week, winning by 8.2 PPG.
➤Lions played an overtime game before Thanksgiving, then played the Packers on Thursday and now the Cowboys on a Thursday.
Only eight teams since 2005 have played in OT, then subsequently had to play before Sunday in consecutive games. Those teams went 2-6 SU in the 2nd leg, losing by 10.6 PPG.
➤The Cowboys have a recipe, it seems. They are 1-8-3 SU on 1st-quarter moneylines, including 3-9 1Q ATS this year. In the 2nd quarter, they are 10-2 2Q ATS, best mark in the NFL.
Dallas is 8-4 against the third-quarter spread and 9-3 against the fourth-quarter spread this season.
➤It’s never a pretty sight when a team gets shut out. But there is usually a nice bounce back. Since 2015, teams that were shut out in their previous game are 33-17-3 ATS, including 3-0 ATS this season.
➤Doesn’t matter who the QB for Minnesota is, they can’t cover the spread this year:
JJ McCarthy: 2-4 ATS
Carson Wentz: 2-3 ATS
Max Brosmer: 0-1 ATS
Vikings have lost four games in a row ATS; they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 overall. The Vikings haven’t lost 5 consecutive games ATS since 2020.
How bad has the QB play been in Minnesota? 50 QBs have played 30+ plays; here are their ranks in adjusted EPA/play. None is even in the top 25 in the NFL.
- Max Brosmer
- JJ McCarthy
- Carson Wentz
➤This is a business trip for the Commanders. Teams simply playing on the road after a SU loss are 45-35 ATS this season. These teams are .500 ATS or better in 6 of the last 7 seasons.
➤If Mariota gets the start, he has struggled early in games throughout his career, going 31-48-3 against the 1H spread in his career, the 3rd-worst mark of any QB dating back to 2005.
Mariota is .500 1H ATS or worse in all seven seasons in the NFL. Jayden has been better, 14-12 1H ATS career, including 8-6 1H ATS on the road.
➤ Vikings' season is spiraling fast. They’ve lost 4 in a row SU/ATS and are 1-6 SU/ATS in their last 7 games. Under O’Connell, Minnesota hasn’t dealt with losing well. After any SU loss, they are just 8-14-1 ATS. Of 7 QBs under O’Connell in this spot, only Wentz is above .500 ATS at 2-1.
➤Ironically enough, Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota have both played exactly 251 plays at QB this year and Mariota has actually been the more efficient QB, which shows how hard a start Washington had.
MM: 19th EPA/play, 15th success rate, 10th CPOE, 2nd in aDOT
JD: 26th EPA/play, 20th success rate, 32nd CPOE, 23rd in aDOT
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➤Nobody loves covering a spread more than Tyrod Taylor. He is 37-21-4 ATS (63%) in his career. Since the start of 2022, he is 7-0-1 ATS in 8 starts.
➤Miami escaped with a win last week, especially considering what Tua Tagovailoa did on offense: 12 completions, 0 TD passes and 4 sacks
Dolphins are 3-0 SU this season after failing to throw a TD pass as a team in their previous game – a decent bounce back spot for the pass offense.
➤Tua Tagovailoa is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS vs. the Jets in his NFL career as a starter, beating New York by an average of 12.8 PPG in those matchups. In those six games, Tua has beaten five different Jets QBs (Fields, Flacco, Wilson, Rodgers, Boyle).
➤Dating back to 2003, Tua’s 16-8-1 ATS mark vs. the AFC East is the 2nd-best in-division mark for the AFC East, behind only … Tom Brady, who went 53-38-5 ATS vs. the division in that span.
On the road, Tua is 7-2-1 ATS vs. the AFC East.
➤From a record standpoint, the difference between Tua at home and the road is drastic. On the road or neutral site, Tua is 15-21 SU, 16-19-1 ATS. At home, Tua is 27-11 SU and 24-14 ATS in his career.
In road or neutral games in December or later, Tua is 3-8 SU/ATS in his career.
➤Dolphins are facing the Jets this week off a full bye week. This is the fourth time Mike McDaniel will coach a game off of a bye week.
The Dolphins are 2-1 SU, but 1-2 ATS, due to being 14-point favorites in both outright wins.
When McDaniel has coached a team on extended rest, he is 5-8 ATS. When listed as the favorite, he is 3-6 ATS in this spot.
➤Dolphins are just 3-9 against the 3rd quarter spread coming out of the locker room this year, tied for the worst mark in the NFL with the Raiders.
Miami has started fast and faded from there this year. They are 7-5 1Q ATS, 8-4 2Q ATS, 3-9 3Q ATS and 5-7 4Q ATS this season.
➤Both the Jets and Browns have struggled this year and both have played pretty tight games lately. In their last 7 games each, both teams are just losing by about 3.5 PPG and both teams have a win pct of 25% or less on the season.
Since 2003, those bad teams keeping it close lately are just 34-49-3 ATS (41%) in their next game.
➤Can Miami keep it up? They are 5-7 SU on the season, but they’ve won 3 in a row outright, they’ve won 4 of 5 and they are currently listed about 80-1 to make the playoffs as of now.
In December or later, teams still under .500 after a SU win, who are listed as favorites, are actually 107-87-2 ATS since 2003, including 23-12-1 ATS last 5 seasons.
➤The Browns have never been a popular team to bet on. In the last two seasons, they have the 4th-fewest games in which they were listed as the public side. Last decade, Cleveland has been public side 49 times, 2nd-fewest in the NFL to the Jets (40).
In Shedeur Sanders’ first two career starts, he was on the public side. This week, he is about 60% of the tickets. Only one other Browns QB has been public side in three straight weeks, for their first three starts since 2003 – Brady Quinn in 2008.
When the public can’t decide on a Browns game, fade Cleveland. Since the start of last year, the Browns are 2-12 ATS when their bet% is set between 40% and 60% on the closing line.
➤The story in this game will obviously be the over/under.
The lookahead total here was 35.5 about the Tuesday before Week 13 and by Sunday night, it was sitting at 33.5 – which would be the lowest total in any game since December of last year, when the Dolphins and Browns closed at 32.5.
Since the start of the 2010 season, this would be the 3rd-lowest total in an outdoor game in freezing temperatures behind…
32.5, 2022 Saints at Browns (17-10 final)
*28.5, 2023 Jets at Patriots (17-3 final)
*Lowest total in NFL history
➤The last NFL game played between two rookie QBs with an over/under of 33.5 or less came all the way back in 2006 between Washington and Tampa Bay, when rookie Jason Campbell faced off against rookie Bruce Gradkowski.
➤Browns are favored to beat the Titans this week. Last two seasons, Cleveland is 1-5 ATS as a favorite, beating the Dolphins earlier this year.
Under Kevin Stefanski, Browns are 18-26 ATS as the betting favorite, including 8-15 ATS when his opponent is under .500 SU in the matchup.
➤The Titans have struggled vs. their own. They’ve lost 8 straight vs. AFC South, including going 3-14 ATS vs. AFC South since 2023.
The good news? Tennessee has actually covered 3 in a row after a AFC South matchup this year.
➤Since 2003, only one Browns QB is above .500 SU for the franchise with a minimum of three starts for the team: Brian Hoyer at 10-6 SU.
Shedeur is 1-1 SU entering his 3rd start – for Browns QBs to make it to their 3rd career start in Cleveland, he would be just the 2nd over .500 SU after 3 games in the last 40 years with Colt McCoy.
➤Both the Jets and Browns have struggled this year and both have played pretty tight games lately. In their last 7 games each, both teams are just losing by about 3.5 PPG and both teams have a win pct of 25% or less on the season.
Since 2003, those bad teams keeping it close lately are just 34-49-3 ATS (41%) in their next game
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➤The Ravens are favored vs. the Steelers in their fourth straight meeting – a stretch like no other.
Baltimore was never even favored in 3 straight meetings vs. Pittsburgh in franchise history prior to this current streak.
➤We had to wait all the way until Week 14 to see Steelers-Ravens this year.
Since 2005, the underdog in this series is 29-12-3 ATS (71%). In the regular season, when the line is three or more points, the underdog is 23-5-3 ATS in that span.
In the regular season, the underdog is 24-7-3 ATS when Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh.
➤As an underdog against the Ravens, Mike Tomlin is 13-4-2 ATS as head coach of the Steelers, starting his career 13-2-2 before the two most recent losses.
In franchise history, the Ravens are 8-19-1 ATS vs. Steelers when Baltimore has the same or a better outright record than Pittsburgh. This matchup they enter even, at 6-6 SU. When the Ravens are favored, just 7-7 SU and 3-10-1 ATS in those games.
➤Lamar Jackson started his career 0-5 ATS vs. the Steelers and have now won and covered two in a row, beating Pittsburgh by a combined score of 62-31 – both of those wins coming at home in Baltimore, too. Against the Steelers, Lamar and the Ravens have scored 24+ pts in all three home games vs. Tomlin.
➤The last two meetings between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, have been won by the Ravens by 14 and 17 pts – here were the final margins between the Steelers and Ravens in their previous nine meetings: 2, 7, 7, 3, 2, 3, 1, 5, 4.
Since the start of 2015, the Steelers and Ravens have met 21 times; 16 of those 21 games had a final margin of seven or fewer points.
➤In the Ravens and Steelers last ten meetings dating back to December of 2020, the under is 9-1 in those meetings, going under the total by 6.6 PPG.
➤Must be nice. Steelers are 8-4 against the first half spread this season, their first year over .500 1H ATS since 2018, six consecutive years under .500 1H ATS entering this season.
Between 2019 and 2024, Steelers were the worst 1H ATS team in the NFL.
➤The Ravens have not started fast at all this season. In 12 total games, Baltimore is 1-11 to their 1st half team total over, the worst mark of any team in the NFL.
➤When two division teams play, both with a win pct between 40-60% late in the season (Dec or later), the home team has been dreadful, going 45-73-2 ATS (39%) since 2003 – they are already 0-2 ATS this season.
➤For the first time this season, the Steelers had a tame 4th quarter last week with Buffalo winning just 10-0, basically trying to end the game.
This year, the over is 11-1 in the twelve total Steelers 4th quarters, they were 11-0 entering last week.
➤Steelers offense was anemic in Week 13 vs. Bills at home. They had…
7 total pts
58 rush yds on 18 carries
Under 4 yards per play
0 pass TDs and under 110 total pass yds
Under Mike Tomlin, Steelers are 10-4 ATS after scoring under 10 pts and 34-25-1 ATS when scoring 14 pts or less, including 19-8-1 ATS after scoring 14 pts or less and then facing an AFC North opponent.
➤The 1P ET window has been a friend to Seattle. Entering this week, they’ve won 7 straight outright at 1P ET, including 6-0 SU since the start of last season.
Under Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks are 9-4-1 ATS on the road, including 5-2-1 ATS when playing on the east coast.
➤With Atlanta, it’s been as simple as wins and losses.
Since 2020, the Falcons are 11-24-1 ATS after a SU win, by far the worst mark in the NFL. After the Falcons take a loss, they are just about .500 ATS in that span at 26-28 ATS.
This season though they are 5-2 ATS off a loss, a top-4 mark in the NFL.
➤Sam Darnold has been a favorite of 6 pts or more ten times as a starter in the NFL. He is 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in those games.
In the last 20 years, Darnold’s 10-0 SU mark as a favorite of 6 pts or more is tied for the best undefeated mark with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is also 10-0 SU.
➤After the loss last week, Kirk Cousins is 1-7 ATS in his last 8 starts, but none of those eight starts had him as a 7 pt favorite or higher.
Kirk is 19-26-1 ATS as a favorite in his career, as a dog he is just above .500 at 39-38 ATS, but recently, just not what he used to be: 4-10 ATS as a dog since 2022, going 2-12 SU in those games.
➤This might be peak Kirk though. In his 166 career starts, Cousins has closed above a 7 pt dog just seven times, he is 5-2 ATS in those games, with his last start in that spot coming back in 2020.
He’s never closed above +7 at home in his 72 career home starts entering this week.
➤A recipe that usually leads to covering, not here. Over the last 3 seasons, two teams are below .500 ATS when they run the ball 25+ times: Titans (8-14 ATS) and Falcons (14-20 ATS).
➤Since 2022, Kirk Cousins has started 27 games indoors, he is just 8-19 ATS, including 1-1 ATS this season. That 8-19 ATS mark is the worst of 84 QBs, even 2-6 ATS as an underdog.
➤The Seahawks are hot, rolling and tough to stop. So time to fade?
Teams coming off a win, who have a 70%+ win percentage, a 60%+ ATS win percentage and are winning by 10+ PPG in December or later are 51-81-5 ATS (39%) since 2003.
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➤The Jaguars are always a thorn in the Colts side. Since 2015, Indy is 3-16-1 ATS vs. Jacksonville. In that span, none of the nine Colts QBs are above .500 ATS vs. the Jaguars.
In road/neutral site games in this span, the Colts are 1-9 ATS vs. Jacksonville
➤Trevor Lawrence has started seven games as an underdog vs. either the Colts or the Texans – his real threat in the division lately and he is 5-2 ATS in those games, covering by 6.9 PPG.
➤Five weeks to go and from here on, the Colts have the toughest remaining SOS based on win percentage at 67.2%, with the Jaguars, Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars and Texans left on the schedule – all current playoff teams.
➤Under Shane Steichen, the Colts have started fast. They are 8-4 against 1st quarter spread this year and are 26-20 1Q ATS since he became head coach in 2023.
An issue under Steichen has been the bounce back off divisional games, Indy is 5-7 ATS in those spots, including going 0-4 SU/ATS in his last 4 games off an AFC South matchup.
➤Colts had just 86 rushing yards against the Texans last week, a far way away from their season total of almost 135 rush yds. Under Shane Steichen, Colts are 11-5 SU the week after rushing for fewer than 100 yds as a team.
➤Daniel Jones has struggled historically vs. good defenses. After last week, he is now 4-11-1 SU playing outdoors vs. teams allowing under 20 PPG.
At 22 PPG or less, Jones is 7-18-1 SU, including 1-10-1 SU in November or later.
➤Sauce Gardner might be out a week or two for the Colts with a calf strain. He has now played three games for the Colts since Week 10 and here is what Indy could be missing:
- PFF has him graded at 74.3 in coverage. Next closest IND CB is Jaylon Jones at 54.6. Sauce leads IND in pass breakups in that stretch.
- According to SIS, Sauce has played the most coverage snaps for IND since Week 10, he’s been targeted 8 times for 2 completions and his yds per pass attempt allowed as primary defender is just 3.1, lowest on the team.
➤Saints have been a thorn in the side of the NFC South when they hit the road. New Orleans is .500 ATS or better on the road vs. NFC South in 7 of the last 8 seasons.
Since 2018, Saints are 15-6-1 ATS on the road vs. NFC South, including 8-0 ATS as an underdog.
➤At one point, the Saints were a thorn in the side of the Bucs – not so much lately. Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in their last seven meetings with New Orleans.
Of course, there is one exception. At home in Tampa Bay, the Bucs have lost 7 consecutive games ATS vs. the Saints. Tampa has won 2 of the last 3 home games outright, but it’s been a struggle.
➤Baker Mayfield has played well against the Saints in his career. He is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS, scoring 22+ pts in 4 of 5 games, including 23+ in his last three games.
➤Home games have never been Baker’s forte. He is .500 ATS or worse in all eight of his seasons as a starting QB. Overall, Baker is 22-34-1 ATS at home, including 13-23-1 ATS as a favorite.
Since Baker was drafted in 2018, his 22-34-1 ATS mark at home is the worst of 134 QBs.
➤The under has cashed in 8 straight Saints games entering this week. Since 2022, the under is 40-23 in all 63 total Saints games, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind just the Texans.
As a starting QB, Tyler Shough is 4-0 to the under, going under the total by 6.1 PPG.
➤Saints are 1-11 against the 1st quarter spread this season, worst mark in the NFL – they are also 0-11-1 1Q moneyline, not winning any of the opening frames. New Orleans has been outscored 92-19 in the twelve 1st quarters.
Dating back to 2020, here are the worst 1Q ATS marks over a full season:
2021 Packers: 3-15 1Q ATS
2024 Bears: 4-12-1 1Q ATS
2021 Jaguars: 4-12-1 1Q ATS
➤The Saints pass defense played well lately. Allowing just 12 completions to Tua, no pass TDs and in their last 3 games, they’ve allowed under 200 pass yds.
This season, four teams have allowed under 200 pass yds in three straight games and been an underdog vs. their own division, they are 4-0 SU/ATS, all winning outright as dogs.
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➤Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. This will be the 3rd time they face off, not counting the suspended game in 2023 due to Damar Hamlin.
Burrow and the Bengals are 2-0 SU/ATS in those games, winning at home and on the road, as a favorite and an underdog, scoring 24+ pts in both games.
➤Zac Taylor has coached 25 total games for the Bengals where Cincinnati is on extra prep time to prepare for their next opponent – they are 9-15-1 SU and 10-14-1 ATS in those games, including 7-8-1 SU and 8-7-1 ATS with Burrow at QB.
➤ As an underdog, Joe Burrow is 20-11 ATS as a starter in his career. When Burrow closes as an underdog of 3 points or more, he is 10-10-1 SU and 18-3 ATS, covering the spread by 6.5 PPG.
As a dog, Burrow has faced 21 teams who are above .500 SU on the season, he is 15-6 ATS in those games, .500 ATS or better in all six seasons in the NFL.
➤When Josh Allen and the Bills face a team on extended prep time, they are 14-11 ATS, when the Bills are at home in that spot they are 8-4 ATS.
➤Bills are 3-9 against the spread in the 1st half this season — tied for the worst mark in the NFL with the Vikings and Saints.
Buffalo’s 3-9 1H ATS mark is the worst through 12 games for the franchise in the last 20 years.
➤The 2nd half kings face off. Since Burrow was drafted in 2020, he is 46-32-1 2H ATS, 3rd of 124 QBs in that span. Josh Allen is 63-42-1 2H ATS, the best mark.
➤Historically, Josh Allen has performed better ATS vs. good defensive teams and haven’t been able to cover spreads vs. bad defensive teams.
Facing teams allowing 28+ PPG, Allen is 8-10-1 ATS in 19 starts, including 5-7 ATS when they allow 30+ PPG.
When defenses allow under 20 PPG, Allen is 27-9-1 ATS in his career.
➤ The Broncos are playing with fire. Denver has trailed in all 12 games this season and they are still winning at 10-2 SU, but just 5-7 ATS. Their 10 wins while trailing is the most for a team in its first 12 games all-time:
2025 Broncos: 10 wins (5-7 ATS)
2025 Patriots: 9 wins (8-4 ATS)
2024 Chiefs: 9 wins (4-7-1 ATS)
1983 Cowboys: 9 wins (7-5 ATS)
In the same vein as luck has been on Denver’s side, they are also 5-1 SU this year when losing the turnover battle and 2-0 SU when losing it by 2-plus.
➤This rivalry has had a heck of a streak series lately.
Broncos have won their last three matchups outright (2-1 ATS).
Raiders were 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS since 2018 before 3-game streak.
Between 2012 and 2017, Broncos went 9-3 SU/ATS vs. Raiders.
➤Pete Carroll and Sean Payton have faced off eight times as NFL head coaches, Payton is 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS, but he’s won four straight over the last decade vs. Pete.
➤Bo Nix has started 13 career games for the Broncos where the over/under closed at 42 or less and Deniver is 9-4 ATS in those games. Higher than that mark, Nix is 8-9 ATS career.
As a favorite, Nix is 15-1 SU in his NFL career, including 4-0 SU vs. the AFC West and he’s 15-0 SU as a 2-pt favorite or higher in all spots.
Last year, Bo Nix went 8-0 SU and ATS as a favorite. This year, he is 7-1 SU, but just 2-6 ATS, the worst mark of any QB in the NFL.
➤No stat is more important to winning than a team total, hard to win without points. Raiders are 3-9 to their team total over this season, worst mark in the NFL. They were 10-7 to their TTO last year.
In Pete Carroll’s last two seasons in the NFL with the Raiders and Seahawks, his teams are 10-19 to their team total over.
➤Raiders are 0-4 SU vs. AFC West this season and now 0-10 SU over the last two seasons, they would become the 3rd team since 2010 to lose all six division games outright in b2b years, joining the 2020-21 Jets and 2016-17 Browns.
➤The Broncos' home and road/neutral splits show a very different team this season.
Home: 6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS, +4.5 ATS margin
A/N: 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS, -0.1 ATS margin
➤Raiders are just 3-9 against the 3rd quarter spread coming out of the locker room this year, tied for the worst mark in the NFL with the Raiders.
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➤The 9-3 Bears. The 8-3-1 Packers. Both off wins, both off extended prep. This should be great.
It’s the first time since 2010-11, both teams have a win pct of 66% or higher entering a matchup and just the 2nd time this late into a season since 2001.
➤In December, Matt LaFleur-coached teams have been dominant. He is 20-4 SU and 13-10-1 ATS. LaFleur has 8+ SU losses every month during football season.
At home, LaFleur is 10-1 SU in December and on 10+ days prep, LaFleur is 4-0 SU in December and 6-1 SU in December or later.
➤Ben Johnson is now 7-4-1 ATS as head coach of the Bears, profiting a $100 bettor $250 this year.
That is currently the highest ATS mark for any Bears head coach since Mike Ditka, who was there btwn 1982-92 and ten games above .500 ATS.
➤This is a different Bears offense. They are 9-3 to their team total over this year, 2nd in the NFL to the Cowboys.
In the Super Bowl era, they are 1 of 7 Bears teams to score 300+ pts in the first 12 games and their 5.65 yards per play with 300+ pts puts them on a list of just two other Bears teams in 2013 and 1995.
➤Even after the win in Week 18 last year, the Bears are 1-11 SU vs. Packers in their last twelve meetings, including 2-10 ATS in those games.
The Bears are going for three straight covers vs. Packers for the first time since 1997 to 1999 when they covered five straight vs. Green Bay.
Since the 2009 season, the Bears have only been favored to beat the Packers four times in a total of 33 meetings. Over the last 20 years, the Bears are a putrid 12-27 ATS (31%) against the Packers. A $100 bettor would be down $1,566, Chicago’s worst opponent ATS.
➤ We’ve entered the Jordan Love zone. In the first 10 weeks of the season, Love and the Packers are 12-13-1 SU. From Week 11 on, he is 15-7 SU.
➤The Packers have made a habit of starting slow this season. Green Bay is 5-7 against the first half spread and they are 3-9 to their 1st half team total over – only the Vikings have a worse mark in the NFC at 2-10 1H TTO.
➤ The most important metric for the Bears week-to-week is pass protection and sacks on Caleb Williams.
When Caleb is sacked two times or fewer, the Bears are 11-5 SU.
When he’s sacked three or more times, they are 3-10 SU over the last two seasons.
➤The Bears have now won five straight games by single digits after taking out the Eagles last week. 21 teams in the Super Bowl era have won 5 straight all by single digits, 3 of those 21 teams went on to make the Super Bowl: 2020 Chiefs, 2009 Colts, 1986 Giants.
➤ The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons. Last 5 years, they are 9-17-1 ATS vs. NFC North, worst mark for any team vs. their own division in the NFL.
➤ The Bears have been extremely turnover-friendly this year. They are +17 through 12 games, the best mark in the NFL by 8 TOs. Chicago has 17 interceptions, also the most in the league.
Here are the only teams since 2000 with 17+ INTs and a +17 turnover margin through 12 games. Boom or bust. 5 of 6 lost their first playoff game and the 2007 Patriots, were the 2007 Patriots.
2025 Bears
2019 Patriots – L, Wild Card
2009 Packers – L, Wild Card
2007 Patriots – L, Super Bowl
2005 Bengals – L, Wild Card
2003 Chiefs – L, Divisional (1st playoff game)
2001 Jets – L, Wild Card
➤Welcome to December football, also known as Sean McVay time. As a head coach, he is 26-11 SU and 25-11-1 ATS in the month of December, winning 8 in a row outright entering this year.
Last 20 years, McVay is 3rd-best coach ATS in December behind Mike McCarthy (45-28 ATS) and Bruce Arians (25-11-3 ATS).
➤McVay has enjoyed his games against the Cardinals for the most part. He is 12-4-1 ATS vs. Arizona, his most profitable opponent ATS. For the first time in his 17 total meetings, Arizona has covered in b2b games vs. McVay entering this one.
On the road in Arizona, McVay is 7-1 SU/ATS, with his only loss being his last trip to Arizona last year.
As a road favorite in Arizona, McVay is 6-0 SU/ATS. As a road favorite in Arizona and Seattle, McVay is 9-0 SU, in San Francisco he’s 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS.
➤Overall, McVay is 32-21-1 ATS vs. the NFC West as coach of the Rams. In 2025, the Rams are just 1-2 ATS vs. NFC West though, it would be their first season below .500 ATS in the division under McVay.
➤No Kyler Murray in this Rams-Cardinals matchup. Kyler has faced the Rams 11 times in his career. He is 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS against them, losing 5 of his last 6 games SU dating back to 2021.
Not much different without Kyler, as Arizona is 1-5 SU/ATS vs. Rams and McVay without him, failing to cover the spread by 10.5 PPG.
➤Arizona has started fast this season, with an 9-3 1Q ATS mark, which is the best mark for any team in the NFL. The 1st quarter and 3rd quarter are the more scripted quarters, while the 2nd and 4th have a bit less of that.
Arizona is 18-6 ATS in 1st and 3rd quarters and 11-13 ATS in 2nd and 4th quarters this season.
➤After upset city, Rams get a chance for payback. Rams had been great as road favorites, now they are again.
As a road favorite, the Rams and Sean McVay are beyond consistent. They are 37-9 SU and 28-18 ATS in that spot, going 15-1 SU in their last 16 games.
As above a 4-point favorite on the road or neutral site, McVay and the Rams are 20-1 SU after the loss last week.
➤The Rams had a bad loss last week. Many trends will tell you to back L.A. this week.
- Good teams off a loss, facing an opponent on a losing streak. Demolition.
- Teams off a loss as a 7+ point favorite are 83-58 ATS since 2015.
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➤The Chiefs have been a problem for the Texans lately. Kansas City has beaten Houston in five straight meetings outright, going 3-2 ATS in those games.
Texans beat Patrick Mahomes in their first meeting and have subsequently lost the next five matchups vs. the Chiefs. KC has scored 23 pts or more in all six matchups vs. the Texans with Mahomes.
➤Kansas City is currently on a 4-game ATS losing streak, going 1-3 SU in that stretch with Mahomes at the helm.
This is the first time Mahmes has lost 3 of 4 outright, while on such a long ATS losing streak – at 6-6 this is truly untested territory for KC.
Mahomes has started three games with KC losing 3 of their last 4 games:
2023 vs. Bengals. Won 25-17.
2023 at Patriots. Won 27-17.
2021 at Commanders. Won 31-13.
➤Since November 1 of last year, Mahomes is 9-15 ATS in 24 starts including the playoffs, that is the least profitable ATS mark for any QB in the NFL at -$664 on a $100 bet.
➤The Chiefs are historically clutch under Patrick Mahomes, but this year, despite their six losses, they are 10-2 against the 4th quarter spread, the best mark in the NFL and by far KC’s best mark since 2020. Between 2020 and 2024, KC was 41-55-1 4Q ATS.
➤Mahomes and the Chiefs have struggled to get wins against great defenses lately. Looking strictly at defenses allowing under 20 PPG, the Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. such teams, including 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 dating back to Week 1 of last season.
At 18 PPG or less, KC has lost 5 consecutive games ATS and 3 straight games outright vs. top-notch defenses.
➤DeMeco Ryans and the Texans are coming off a big win against the Colts last week. Under DeMeco, Houston is 11-5 ATS after facing an AFC South opponent, including 8-4 ATS after a SU win.
➤It’s never easy to beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead with Mahomes, but coming off a road game hasn’t helped.
Teams playing a road or neutral site game before taking a trip to Arrowhead to face Mahomes are 2-21 SU. The winners? Just Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. All other QBs are 0-20 SU in this spot.
➤Chiefs defense allowed 31 pts to the Cowboys last week. In November or later, KC and Mahomes are 8-0 SU in the regular season the week after their defense allows 30+ pts in their previous game.
➤The question for this matchup surrounds Justin Herbert, who had hand surgery Monday afternoon and is going to try and play Monday night.
Jim Harbaugh has coached in the NFL for six seasons and he’s coached 102 total games, he’s only had 3 total QBs: Justin Herbert, Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith. He started with Smith, who got hurt, was replaced by Kaepernick, who never gave the job back.
In Kaepernick’s first game, 49ers won 32-7 at home vs. the Bears. If Herbert can’t go, it will be Trey Lance under center – he has made 5 career starts amd his teams have had 5 total TD drives.
➤ The bounce-back spot hasn’t been great for Nick Sirianni’s Eagles. When Philly is coming off a loss under Sirianni, they are 8-15 ATS in their next game.
Least Profitable Coaches ATS Coming Off a SU Loss (since 2021, of 70 coaches):
70. Brian Callahan: 3-14 ATS
69. Matt Rhule: 3-11 ATS
68. Nick Sirianni: 8-15 ATS
Even after consecutive losses with Philly, Sirianni is just 3-5 ATS in their next game.
➤Justin Herbert is trying to stop the stigma.
Last four seasons, Herbert is 8-15 SU vs. teams above .500, in Herbert’s career he is 14-23 SU vs. teams above .500 SU. Of 114 QBs, since 2020, Herbert is the least profitable on the moneyline vs. teams above .500. This season, Herbert is 2-2 SU (-$93) vs. teams above .500.
➤When the Eagles lost at home as a favorite outright, they are surprisingly just 1-5 ATS in their next game with Hurts at QB, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite.
➤Hurts and the Eagles haven’t been their best on Monday Night Football, even after their win vs. Packers a month ago. Philly is 1-4 ATS in their last five MNF games, and their one cover came when they scored juts 10 pts – Hurts is 4-6 ATS on MNF.
In night games, Hurts is 12-5 SU when playing at home or neutral site and just 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS on the road.
➤The Chargers have never been an easy game for Philadelphia. In the last 30 years, Eagles have faced the Chargers eight times, going 3-5 SU and 2-5-1 ATS, losing their last such meeting at home to the Chargers back in 2021.
➤Herbert has started 19 games in his career where he was listed +3 or higher, the Chargers are 12-6-1 ATS in those games.
➤Jalen Hurts has started seven career games in either the MST or PST, he is just 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS, but in those last five road games out west, Eagles defense has allowed 20 pts or less in all five.
The good news? Eagles have started out. They are 5-2 1H ATS in the seven trips out west, covering the 1H spread in their last five trips.
➤ Lane Johnson is vital to the Eagles offense.
Without him vs. the Cowboys, the Eagles had just 63 rushing yards on 18 attempts. The 63 yards is the 5th-lowest in 82 games with 18+ attempts under Sirianni.
Without him vs. the Bears, Philly had 87 rush yds on 17 carries.
Just how had has the rush game been in 2025 for Philly? They are about to play their 5th game this year where they had less than 90 rush yds in b2b games entering that matchup, their most such games as a franchise since 2005 (T-most since 1990). Every game seems to be the bounce back spot for the run game.
Over the last decade:
Philly is 96-41-1 SU when Lane starts
Philly is 12-25 SU when he doesn’t
Since 2013 (including playoffs):
Eagles are 120-62-1 SU when Lane plays
Eagles are 15-26 SU when he doesn’t
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Welcome to divisional unders season.
Matches: IND/JAC, GB/CHI, LAR/ARI
System: Bet big home dogs.
Matches: ARI, LVR, ATL
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System: The Ravens had a lot of time to think about that Bengals loss and that may not be a good thing.
Matches: PIT
System: It isn't easy for dogs to win again.
Matches: CIN, NYJ
System: Bad game = advantage.
Matches: MIN, TEN
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