Injuries derail seasons, bets, and fantasy rosters. So instead of guessing who might go down next year, we built a QB Injury Index — a data-driven score that ranks every quarterback (3+ seasons) by their exposure to future injury risk.
You can find a link to the full data set here.
The index evaluates three factors:
- Durability — past injuries, games missed, IR trips
- Offensive line exposure — pressures, sacks, blocking performance
- Play style — rush attempts, scrambles, hits taken
Higher score = higher estimated injury risk.
Not medical predictions — just evidence-based exposure.
How the Index Works
Data sources:
- Pro Sports Transactions — missed games, injury history
- Pro-Football-Reference — pressures, sacks, hits, mobility metrics
- ESPN PBWR — pass block win rate (inverted: worse blocking = more risk)
Scoring breakdown:
- 40% Historical durability
- 35% Offensive line exposure
- 25% Mobility / play style exposure
Rookies were removed due to limited injury data.
If you’re interested in how injuries affect betting, you should check out this FanDuel Promo Code.
The 10 Riskiest QBs
| Rank | Quarterback | Team | Risk Score |
| 1 | Deshaun Watson | Browns | 62.49 |
| 2 | Daniel Jones | Colts | 58.32 |
| 3 | Joe Burrow | Bengals | 55.79 |
| 4 | Justin Herbert | Chargers | 55.04 |
| 5 | Anthony Richardson | Colts | 51.91 |
| 6 | Kyler Murray | Cardinals | 48.64 |
| 7 | Marcus Mariota | Commanders | 48.55 |
| 8 | Carson Wentz | Vikings | 47.20 |
| 9 | Tyrod Taylor | Jets | 46.06 |
| 10 | Justin Fields | Jets | 45.53 |
Why Watson Ranks #1
Watson leads the league in risk due to:
- High games missed
- Multiple distinct injuries
- IR time
- Moderate line protection
Even without extreme rushing volume, his long-term durability metrics elevate his score.
The Colts Have a Problem
Both top QBs rank in the top five:
- Daniel Jones — #2
- Anthony Richardson — #5
One brings repeated injuries; the other brings a high-contact play style. Together, they create one of the most volatile QB rooms in football.
Burrow & Herbert: Talent + Exposure
Both rank top-four due to:
- Significant past injury/availability issues
- Persistent pressure environments
- Scramble/hit volume higher than expected
Elite quarterbacks, high exposure profiles.
Mobility Isn’t Automatically High Risk
Running QBs score lower when durability is strong and protection holds up:
| Player | Rank | Notes |
| Lamar Jackson | 26 | High rushing, moderate durability issues |
| Josh Allen | 36 | Tons of hits, almost no missed time |
| Jalen Hurts | 21 | Heavy rushing + strong line offsets risk |
The model punishes mobility more when paired with poor durability — which is why Richardson ranks high.
Safest QBs in the League
| Rank | QB | Team | Risk |
| 62 | Mitchell Trubisky | Bills | 7.58 |
| 61 | Tyson Bagent | Bears | 8.14 |
| 60 | Sean Clifford | Bengals | 11.14 |
Mostly low-volume or protected players with minimal injury history.
Team-Level Results: Riskiest QB Rooms
| Rank | Team | Team Index |
| 1 | Bengals | 194.65 |
| 2 | Colts | 110.23 |
| 3 | Steelers | 97.41 |
| 4 | Raiders | 96.23 |
| 5 | Chargers | 94.40 |
Cincinnati leads due to depth chart age + Burrow’s exposure.
Least risky rooms:
- Broncos (15.36)
- Falcons (29.09)
- Cowboys (31.35)
Methodology
The QB Injury Index measures injury-related risk for NFL quarterbacks using publicly available data on durability, offensive line exposure, and play style. Analysis covers all 32 teams and includes only experienced quarterbacks (3+ accrued seasons) to ensure complete injury histories.
Data Sources & Metrics
1. Durability & Availability (Pro Sports Transactions)
Seasons: 2021–present
Metrics include:
- Games missed due to injury
- Distinct injuries (standardized across sources)
- IR stints
COVID absences and IR activations excluded.
2. Offensive Line Exposure
Sources: Pro-Football-Reference, ESPN PBWR
Metrics include:
- Pressure rate allowed
- Sack rate
- Team Pass Block Win Rate (inverted so worse protection = higher risk)
3. Play Style Exposure (Pro-Football-Reference)
Metrics include:
- Rush attempts
- Scrambles on passing plays
- QB hits
Processing & Scoring
- All metrics normalized for comparability.
- Multi-year averages used to reduce single-season noise.
- Rookies excluded due to incomplete data.
Final Formula:
QB Injury Index =
0.40 × Durability +
0.35 × Offensive Line Exposure +
0.25 × Mobility Exposure
Weights: Durability is most predictive of future injury; OL exposure and mobility increase contact risk.
Ranking
Quarterbacks ranked in descending order by final score:
- Higher score = higher estimated injury risk
- Rank 1 = highest-risk QB
