It's been a weird NFL season.
If the playoffs started today, the Chiefs and Lions would be at home watching, while the Bills and Ravens are barely hanging onto their spots. Meanwhile, the Bears are the top seed in the NFC, and the top three seeds in the AFC are the Patriots, Broncos and Jaguars — not exactly what anyone expected.
With so many odd results and so many presumed favorites struggling, it can be hard to get a feel for which team will actually win the Super Bowl — and which one to bet on.
It's a wide-open field and feels like anyone's game, especially in the AFC. The right team getting hot at the right team can make a real run.
And that's why it's finally time to invest in Chiefs futures.
Chiefs Season Recap, Analysis
It's been a frustrating year for Kansas City backers.
The Chiefs are a meager 6-6, roughly a coin flip to make the NFL playoffs. They're four losses back in the AFC West, with four losses in the AFC, including potentially damaging tiebreaker losses to the Chargers, Jaguars and Bills.
After going a perfect 10-0 in one-score games last season, Kansas City's magic has disappeared: the team is 1-6 in one-score games. No one is dominating the Chiefs, but suddenly, Patrick Mahomes is either winning games comfortably or losing close ones.
The underlying metrics still like the Chiefs about as much as always, though.
Kansas City ranks sixth in DVOA, third on offense. Kansas City isn't blasting many home runs but it's hitting a ton of singles, running the ball well and hitting short passes to control the clock and consistently move the ball.
Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones haven't been as consistently great as in the past, but are trending up. The run defense is good, and the underrated corners are finally healthy. And don't forget about Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo and the coaching staff.
The red-zone offense is a concern, but that can change in a hurry. The offensive line needs to get healthy. The passing defense got lit up by the Cowboys, but may not be tested by a passing attack like that often.
I still make the Chiefs more than a one-point favorite on a neutral field against any other AFC team, and more than two points against all but one. This is still a really good team, one that typically plays its best ball in January when all those play calls the coaching staff has held back get dusted off and Kelce and Jones go full boar.
We all know the Chiefs will be dangerous in the playoffs if they get there. Mahomes always gives them a chance, on the road or not, and the AFC looks wide open.
And it's that latter fact that is giving Kansas City its real value.
The Broncos and Patriots are by far the most likely teams to finish as the top-two AFC seeds at 79% and 76%, per FTN, respectively. The Chiefs are far more likely to enter as the six- or seven-seed if they make the playoffs at all.
That's typically bad news, but put those two sentences together and it could be good or even great news.
The single most likely playoff game right now is Ravens-Bills. Those are still likely the two most dangerous opponents for Kansas City, and that puts those teams squarely on the other side of the AFC bracket.
Instead, a Chiefs playoff path would likely begin on the road against the Broncos and Patriots in either order — win the first game and you likely play the other one as the rested one-seed next.
A dream playoff path is at home, preferably with a bye, but games against the overrated Broncos and Patriots are about as good as it gets otherwise.
Drake Maye is the MVP favorite for a reason — because the Patriots can't run the ball or stop the pass, and he's having to carry a relatively average team. The Broncos have a Super Bowl-caliber defense but Bo Nix leading a tepid offense.
You don't want Mahomes against Nix in a playoff game? You don't want the Chiefs against a one-man Maye show? Be real.
No other AFC team is even above 15% to be a top-two seed. If the Chiefs make the playoffs, that's the path to the AFC Championship Game — and it's not particularly daunting.
The Chiefs are 98% to make the playoffs (per The Athletic) if they win out, and still around 50-50 if they go 4-1.
But even winning out still leaves Kansas City likely to enter as the six- or seven-seed, with that same winnable AFC path and the Bills/Ravens on the other side of the bracket while Mahomes just has to beat some combination of Maye, Nix, and maybe Trevor Lawrence or Daniel Jones to get back to the AFC Championship Game — right where Mahomes has been every other season as an NFL starter in his career.
Chiefs Futures Odds, Predictions
The Chiefs are +950 to win the AFC (DraftKings).
If Kansas City gets into the playoffs and takes down the Broncos and Patriots to make the AFC Championship Game, that is now a +950 moneyline ticket on the Chiefs. And are you sure they wouldn't be favorites at that point, even on the road?
Kansas City's margin for error is mostly gone, but it's not like this franchise has struggled in playoff settings over the last decade.
The Chiefs finish the season against the Texans, Chargers, Titans, Broncos and Raiders. Three of those opponents are pushing for the playoffs, but Kansas City gets all those games at home, where it has one of the last few true home-field advantages. The two road games are against arguably the worst teams in the league.
Kansas City could absolutely lose to the Texans on Sunday night. If they do, the Chiefs drop to around 10% to make the playoffs, about the same odds as our ticket to win the AFC. That's not great, but that's the risk you take on a ticket like this.
The good news is that the Chiefs need to win anyway, and a win on Sunday also doubles as a loss for the Texans, arguably as dangerous an opponent as there is in the AFC, potentially knocking Houston out of the playoff mix. Kansas City is going to have to knock some tough teams out eventually — may as well get started now.
If you make the Chiefs a coin flip to make the playoffs and give them the same odds to win each of those first two playoff games, that's a 13% chance of making the AFC Championship Game. FTN has Kansas City 12% to get there. I'd personally make Kansas City closer to double that, accounting for all we know about how good Mahomes and the Chiefs are this time of year.
And if Mahomes and the Chiefs do make the AFC Championship, you're definitely going to want a +950 AFC ticket that acts as a moneyline.
Yes, it's finally time to buy Chiefs futures stock — they are still good enough and because they've been bad enough to accidentally lock themselves into a perfect path against an underwhelming top of the AFC.
Bet Kansas City +950 to win the AFC (DraftKings), and you may want to split your bet, in case you want to cash out part of it later.
And if the Chiefs do get that far, we may as well play them at +1800 to win the Super Bowl!
I prefer the AFC ticket if you're only doing one, but in a wide-open season where no one seems particularly good, why not just bet the team we all thought was best before the games even started?
We don't get to bet the Chiefs as sixth-favorites in the AFC very often. It's finally time to bet Kansas City futures.
Pick: Chiefs to win AFC (+950, DraftKings)
