Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
Here are the NFL Week 14 picks I made — for Steelers vs Ravens, Texans vs Chiefs and Saints vs Buccaneers — before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 14 Picks & Predictions
Steelers vs Ravens Over/Under Prediction
If you follow me on the Action app, then you got this at Under 47.5 on Sunday morning. This total has since dropped to 45 at some sportsbooks.
Steelers–Ravens is one of my favorite matchups to bet in football. When you have Mike Tomlin vs. John Harbaugh, you bet the underdog and you bet the under.
Nine of the last 11 Steelers-Ravens games have been within one score. The last 10 games have an average of 33.1 PPG — nine of those games finished at 42 points or below, 7-of-10 at 34 points or below.
This rivalry tends to play out with low-scoring, close games — and they're not that far apart this season.
The Ravens are slightly better by Offensive DVOA (12th vs. 16th) and the Steelers are slightly better by Defensive DVOA (15th vs 20th).
Entering this one, Baltimore's defense has been trending up while its offense is trending down, generally looking stuck in the mud and not right for whatever reason. Four of the last five Ravens games have gone under the total after starting the season as an over team.
Tomlin road unders are 85-65-1 (57%), the most profitable coach in our database.
There's also an under trends bonanza for division games from Week 14-forward:
- Home favorites under 7 are 56% to the under.
- Totals from 43-47 points are 57% to the under.
- Outdoor games are 60% to the under.
Picks: Under 45.5 (-110; DraftKings)
Texans vs Chiefs Over/Under Prediction
I also gave this one out on Sunday morning; it was at 43.5 but has fallen quickly to 41.5 at most books as of Monday afternoon.
The Texans are 9-3 to the under this year (best mark in the NFL) and the Chiefs are just behind at 8-4.
These teams play low-scoring games almost by design.
Houston boasts maybe the best defense in the league; it held Kansas City to 27 and 23 points last year. The Chiefs end up playing low-scoring games because they tend to have long, slow drives; their defense is also good enough to suppress points.
Primetime unders (Thursday excluded) since 2019 are 148-93-4 (61%); that mark is at 63% this year.
Unders between 39-44 points when the line drops 1-4 points are at 54.7%. When totals in this range start dropping, that's a sign we should get ahead and bet the under.
This game should be intense — both teams need the win. The Chiefs, in particular, are on the outside looking in of the AFC playoff picture. There's also the revenge nature of this game, with the Chiefs losing twice to the Texans last year.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110; DraftKings)
Saints vs Buccaneers Over/Under Prediction
Another under with similar logic to the Steelers-Ravens pick, where late-season divisional unders with a total between 43-47 are hitting at a 57% clip.
The Saints are 9-3 to the under and they are coming off a game in which they mostly shut down Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins passing attack.
The defenses are the best units in this game for each side. Six of the last eight Saints-Buccaneers games have finished at 40 points or below.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110; DraftKings)
Anderson's Early NFL Week 14 Bets
- Steelers-Ravens Under 45.5 (-110; DraftKings)
- Texans-Chiefs Under 43.5 (-110; DraftKings)
- Saints-Bucs Under 43.5 (-110; DraftKings)
