Cardinals-Packers Betting Preview: Winter Weather Moving This Over/Under

Cardinals-Packers Betting Preview: Winter Weather Moving This Over/Under article feature image

Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin via USA TODAY NETWORK Pictured: Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers

Betting odds: Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers

  • Spread: Packers -14
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: One would expect the public to be all over the Packers in an Aaron Rodgers-Josh Rosen showdown. However, given the Packers’ lack of success and the lofty line, it’s the Cardinals who are actually getting 51% of bets and nearly 65% of dollars (check out the updated betting data here).

Once available at +14.5 for a long chunk of time, the Cardinals are largely +14 around the market.

The under is getting just 45% of bets, but more than 70% of the cash, helping the over/under drop from 46 to 44. Also helping push the total down is the weekend weather. — Mark Gallant

Weather report: We could see some classic Green Bay snow this Sunday! Winds above 15 mph are in the forecast per our Sports Insights weather bug, and it looks as if we’ll see the snowiest game thus far this season. — Gallant

Trends to know: The 4-6-1 Packers are double-digit favorites. Since 2003, teams with a losing record favored by 10 or more points have gone 23-37-1 against the spread according to our Bet Labs database.

Aaron Rodgers has been in this spot three previous times with the Packers going 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS. — John Ewing

The Packers became the third team since 2003 to open as a two-touchdown favorite in October or later despite being under .500 straight-up for the season.

The previous two teams in this spot played both their games in November, making this game the latest into the regular season a team has been a two-touchdown favorite in this spot.

The previous two teams also played down to their competition:

2011 Eagles: (-13.5) lost at home 21-17 vs. Cardinals
2008 Chargers: (-15.5) won at home 20-19 vs. Chiefs — Evan Abrams

Did you know? The Cardinals are allowing 26.6 PPG this season, which is tied for 26th in the NFL, but their pass defense hasn’t been a huge issue lately, holding teams below 300 yards passing in six consecutive games.

In Rodgers’ career, he has faced a pass defense that held five straight previous opponents under 300 passing yards 26 times, and he is 20-6 ATS (76.9%), covering the spread by 5.6 PPG, the most profitable quarterback in the NFL in this spot. — Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Packers pass rush vs. Cardinals offensive line

The Cardinals are one of just three offenses that have allowed pressure on at least 40% of their dropbacks this season.

Meanwhile, the Packers rank fifth in adjusted sack rate and boast one of the league’s best home-field advantages. Overall, the Packers have allowed 19.4 points per game at home since 2014 compared to 26.1 PPG on the road. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Cardinals

The Cardinals’ defense is dealing with injuries to linebacker Deone Bucannon (chest), slot corner Budda Baker (knee) and linebacker Haason Reddick (neck), but the offense is almost 100% aside from left tackle D.J. Humphries (knee) and wide receiver Chad Williams (ankle).

The Packers aren’t so well off, as the offense is dealing with injuries to left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee), left guard Lane Taylor (quad) and tight end Jimmy Graham (knee, thumb) in addition to wide receivers Randall Cobb (hamstring) and Equanimeous St. Brown (elbow).

The defense also isn’t doing all that great considering cornerbacks Kevin King (hamstring) and Bashaud Breeland (groin) could join defensive tackle Mike Daniels (foot) on the sideline.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz

DFS edge: Davante Adams and Rodgers have formed one of the league’s most prolific WR-QB combinations in recent memory. Since 2016, Adams has scored a touchdown and or gained 100-plus yards in 25 of his 34 games (74%) with Rodgers under center.

Adams has already been through the Detroit Lions’ den of shadow cornerbacks this season, winning battles against Darius Slay (9-140-1), Xavier Rhodes (8-64-1, 5-69-1), Stephon Gilmore (6-40-1), Tre’Davious White (8-81-0) and Marcus Peters (5-133-0).

Patrick Peterson has a strong case as Adams’ toughest test of the season, but we haven’t seen the same version of the all-world cornerback in 2018.

The Cardinals defense has embraced a more zone-heavy scheme under new head coach Steve Wilks, and Peterson has only ventured into the slot on 10 total snaps all season.

He’s only been charged with two touchdowns allowed this season by PFF, but Peterson didn’t exactly dominate shadow dates against Stefon Diggs (3-33-0), Marquise Goodwin (1-55-1) or Tyreek Hill (7-117-2).

Adams is more than capable of having a productive day against Peterson, although it’s probably not wise to expect either player to approach his ceiling in this battle of elites. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: David Johnson Over Rushing+Receiving Yards

This line isn’t up yet, but when it posts, I have a hard time believing it’ll be anything north of 105.5 — and I like the over at anything around that number.

Now for the handicap: Three weeks ago, DJ put up 85 receiving yards against the Chiefs’ horrendous defense.

Why’s that pertinent in Week 13 against the Packers?

Green Bay has one of five NFL defenses that actually ranks worse than Kansas City against pass-catching running backs, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, which has the Packers 31st overall. That should ease any concerns about game flow impacting DJ’s rushing output.

At this point, Johnson is clearly the Cardinals’ most effective offensive weapon — and new-ish offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich appears to be well aware of that fact.

Johnson has had 19-plus touches in each of the four games since Leftwich took over play-calling duties on Oct. 19, and most notably, Johnson delivered by torching the Chiefs and Raiders for 308 total yards.

The Packers are better than both of those units, but not by much.

Keep an eye out for this line to post and hit the over when it does. It should only go up. — Scott Miller

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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