After an eventful Week 6, I've compiled a list of six player prop picks for NFL Week 7.
Let's get into my NFL prop bets for Week 7, including predictions for Rams vs Jaguars, Dolphins vs Browns, Panthers vs Jets, Patriots vs Titans, and Saints vs Bears.
NFL Player Props — Week 7
- Travis Etienne Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (+100)
- Dillon Gabriel Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-114)
- Justin Fields Under 172.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Chig Okonkwo Under 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Christian Barmore Over 0.25 Sacks (+265)
- Rome Odunze Under 4.5 Receptions (-114)
Rams vs Jaguars Player Prop: Travis Etienne Rushing Attempts
Travis Etienne is averaging 14.8 carries per game, but that's been in near-perfect conditions. He's been the clear lead back, especially after the Tank Bigsby trade, helping the Jags to run the seventh-most plays per game.
Not only that, they've only trailed 12% of the time (second lowest in the league).
This week, they're three-point underdogs to the Rams. That doesn't necessarily mean they can't lead/win here and help Etienne clear this prop, but historically, three-point dogs trail at a +33% higher rate than he's seen so far.
That should lead to fewer rush attempts overall.
Rookie Bhayshul Tuten has been banged up, but could start eating into Etienne's workload as he gets healthier and in short yardage, Etienne only has 38% of the team's rush attempts.
Jacksonville has been pass-heavy on 2nd-and-short and often uses Trevor Lawrence, or even wide receiver runs instead of giving Etienne as many of the cheap carries other lead backs get.
I project him closer to 13.8 carries with around a 60% chance to stay under 14.5.
Pick: Travis Etienne Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (+100)
Dolphins vs Browns Player Prop: Dillon Gabriel Pass Attempts
Gabriel has cleared this in both starts, including 52 attempts last week against Pittsburgh, but this is a completely different setup.
We’re looking at 20+ mph sustained winds with 30+ mph gust potential, which should force Cleveland into a run-heavy, conservative approach, and they can get away with it against a Miami defense ranked dead last in DVOA.
Quinshon Judkins’ rushing prop has already been bet into oblivion, so think of this as betting the Judkins over at a discount (we are rooting for him to go off with this prop; that’ll be key in limiting Gabriel’s pass attempts).
The Browns are 2.5-point favorites, projecting them to play with a lead at a +33% higher rate than usual: less trailing, less throwing.
And then there’s Gabriel’s scramble rate. 1 scramble on 98 dropbacks. I never expected him to be Jaxson Dart-level mobile, but he has way too much athleticism to be in the same scramble bucket as Mall Santas like Matthew Stafford and Joe Flacco.
That number has to be corrected upward, which steals pass attempts. There are even situational paths where his volume gets capped.
If Cleveland gets the ball late in the first half backed up deep, I doubt they run a real 2-minute drill in hurricane winds with a rookie QB.. they’ll probably just run the clock and get out of there.
I’m projecting him closer to 29.1 attempts with around a 60% chance to stay under 30.5.
Pick: Dillon Gabriel Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-114)
Panthers vs Jets Player Prop: Justin Fields Passing Yards
I mentioned this on the Fantasy Flex projections pod that I’d take this if it ever hit 170+, so I wanted to lock it in before it potentially drops by tomorrow, considering this is a pretty obvious angle.
Fields should be more efficient against a pass-funnel Panthers defense, but that should also allow the Jets to keep this close and lean on the run.
He had a brutal matchup last week against Denver, but was coming off the easiest two-game stretch possible (Miami/Dallas), so the market may be overrating his baseline.
Carolina should lean heavily on the run with Rico and Hubbard, which will help limit the Jets’ time of possession.
The Jets have trailed at the 4th-highest rate this season, but are projected to play with a lead at about a +20% higher rate here, given that it’s essentially a pick’em.
That should make them more run-heavy than usual.
On top of that, Fields will be without his clear top target in Garrett Wilson. I expect an extremely conservative approach from New York.
If they happen to fall behind and the game tilts pass-heavy, there’s even a chance Tyrod replaces Fields, which lowers his floor further.
Pick: Justin Fields Under 172.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Patriots vs Titans Player Prop: Chig Okonkwo Receiving Yards
On the surface, this number looks low. Chig has cleared it in 4 of 6 games and with Calvin Ridley out, it’s easy to assume he’ll see more targets and sail over.
That’s why I’m guessing 90%+ of the action is on the over and why this number may be a bit inflated. I think there are a few factors that point to the under.
Yes, Ridley being out could help Chig, but Tyjae Spears was much more involved in the passing game last week in just his second game back.
He will command more targets than Tony Pollard did and Cam has already shown he’s more willing to throw to RBs the last few games.
Tyler Lockett and Chimere Dike should also see more snaps and command shorter-area targets that specifically eat into Chig’s share.
Fourth-round rookie Gunner Helm continues to see his role grow as well. With a new coaching regime in place, it would make sense for them to evaluate younger players, which could come directly at Chig’s expense.
This is also a matchup against a Patriots defense that plays man coverage at the 6th-highest rate.
Chig’s target rate drops 10% against man, and his yards per route run falls from 1.91 vs zone to 0.29 vs man — a massive 1.62 drop.
The Titans are “only” 7-point underdogs here, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they rally after Brian Callahan’s firing and keep this closer than expected.
Based on historical 7-point 'dog data, they’re actually projected to trail at a -25% lower rate than their season norm. That should lead to fewer extreme pass scripts and a more balanced approach, which hurts Chig’s volume.
I project his average around 30.5 yards but his median closer to 26.5, with around a 60% chance to stay under 31.5.
Pick: Chig Okonkwo Under 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Patriots vs Titans Player Prop: Christian Barmore Sacks
Worth a sprinkle. Note that FanDuel counts a half sack as a win here and DK is also offering this at +244 (good at that price).
Barmore has been unlucky to have 0 sacks on 20 pressures (5 quick ones).
I project him closer to 2.9 sacks with that pressure profile and his +2.9 sack luck rating is the highest in the league.
He’s faced a tougher stretch of QBs to bring down, especially the last four games, but Cam Ward will be the easiest QB to sack he will face to date, making this the perfect spot for him to finally get on the board.
Projecting this closer to +150.
Pick: Christian Barmore Over 0.25 Sacks (+265)
Saints vs Bears Player Prop: Rome Odunze Receptions
I was high on Rome heading into the season and he was one of my top fantasy targets at cost.. and I’m still high on him. But this is the market to fade him in this specific spot.
The game is expected to open with 20+ mph winds for at least the first half. It may calm down later, but as 4.5-point favorites, Chicago could lean more run-heavy in the second half if playing with a lead.
The wind matters more for Rome than most because his average depth of target is 14.1 yards, which lowers his expected catch rate (which would be even lower with high winds).
When he does haul one in, it typically goes for chunk yardage, so I don’t want to fade his yards.. just the volume.
The Saints play zone at a top-10 rate. Rome’s target share drops from 41% against man to 20% against zone. That 20% is still solid but it’s a 21% dip against the exact coverage he’ll see most here.
DJ Moore is expected to play through a questionable tag, and if he’s limited or exits, that likely means more snaps for Luther Burden III, and I actually project Burden for a higher target rate than Moore.
Any boost in Burden’s involvement comes at the expense of everyone else, including Rome.
I project him closer to 4.1 receptions, with around a 60% chance to stay under 4.5.
Pick: Rome Odunze Under 4.5 Receptions (-114)
