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NFL Wind History: Where Dolphins-Browns Fits With 20+ MPH Winds Coming

NFL Wind History: Where Dolphins-Browns Fits With 20+ MPH Winds Coming article feature image
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Pictured: Fans walk to their seats at Huntington Bank Field. (Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images)

When bettors talk weather, they talk wind.

Rain makes for messy footing, snow makes for great TV — but wind? That’s what truly changes games. This Sunday in Cleveland, the Dolphins and Browns could be dealing with the strongest winds the NFL has seen since Christmas Eve 2022.

RotoGrinders chief meteorologist Kevin Roth says the current models show a tricky setup:

“Some rain looks likely, though rainfall totals during the game likely stay under 1/10th of an inch. Of greater interest is the wind — right now, models show strong winds pregame and strong winds postgame, but modest 10-15 mph winds in-game. The timing of that isn’t locked in yet, so we need to monitor this game for potential impactful winds along with the rain chances.”

That nuance matters.

The Action Network/Bet Labs model currently lists average in-game winds near 20 mph — which would make it the windiest NFL contest since Dec. 24, 2022, when Saints-Browns (25 mph) and BillsBears (22 mph) games were played in the brutal cold.

The Dolphins vs Browns over/under opened at 43.5 on the lookahead line and is now down to 37.5 — a full six-point move. In games with 20+ mph winds and a 6+ point drop on the total, the under is 9-3.


NFL Wind History Says the Wind Bites Back

Since 2003, there have been 53 NFL games played in sustained winds of 20 mph or higher. Those games have finished 29-24 to the under, missing totals by an average of 3.7 points per game.

The league has learned to respect Cleveland’s lakefront.

In games at Huntington Bank Field with those conditions, totals have gone under in 13-of-15 contests since 2003 by a staggering 13.8 points per game on average.


Add Rain, and It Gets Interesting

Wind is the main story, but light rain could join the party on Sunday.

Of the 53 high-wind games in the database, 25 also featured measurable rain. Those went just 12-13 to the under overall, but in Cleveland, it’s been dominant: 6-1 to the under when both wind and rain hit, with the last five such games all staying below the total.


A Warm Twist to a Windy Trend

If Sunday holds at 20+ mph winds and a temperature above 60°F, it would be the first NFL game with both since JetsChiefs (November 2014).

Warm, windy games are rare — and often deceptive for bettors expecting classic “bad-weather unders.”


Dolphins vs Browns Betting Takeaway

Right now, this is the one game on the Week 7 slate that could swing entirely on weather timing.

If the stronger winds arrive earlier than forecasted, the total could tumble before kickoff. If conditions stay closer to Roth’s modest 10-15 mph window, we might see normal scoring.

Either way, history says Cleveland and wind make for one of the league’s most reliable weather-based betting trends.

Keep an eye on the forecast — and the flags atop the uprights.

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