The NFL season rolls into Week 7, with the Steelers taking on the Bengals in an AFC North showdown on Thursday Night Football and the Rams and Jaguars playing in the NFL London game.
That's where I begin my NFL Week 7 predictions, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate, including Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football doubleheader.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
Week 7 NFL Picks & Predictions
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| NFL London Game |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 5 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football |
Thursday Night Football
Steelers vs Bengals
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +210 |
The Bengals have turned out to be a surprisingly potent team with Joe Flacco at the helm, and while the defense has ultimately let them down in the last two games, there's been some promise. Cincinnati nearly pulled level with the Lions in Week 5 before falling 27-18 to the Packers in Week 6. After coming through that gauntlet, it will face the Steelers on short rest.
Now, there's nothing inherently wrong with the Steelers, who have won four of their five games, but they've played just one truly quality opponent — the Seahawks — in a game which they ultimately lost.
This offense was ranked just 18th by DVOA before shooting up six spots following a win over the Browns, so I'm not the hottest on them. That goes doubly when you consider their bread and butter has been runs and short passes. The Bengals might not look like an elite defensive unit, but they can at least get to the quarterback at an average rate, which has proved to be trouble for the aging Aaron Rodgers. My gut says take the Under.
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NFL London Game
Rams vs Jaguars
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
The Rams sure look like one of the best teams in the NFL, getting an excellent season from Matthew Stafford thus far despite the veteran sitting out most of camp with an injury. He grades out as the fifth-best passer according to Pro Football Focus, and with that, his offense has averaged eight yards per pass and ranks third with 6.1 yards per play on average.
This is a team that loves to throw the ball and has run wild on plenty of defenses in spite of a volatile run game. Well, the Jaguars have done a pretty good job of stopping the run, but their pass rush has been ineffective and the secondary continues to look like minced meat, serving up 295 yards to Sam Darnold last week on just 16-of-27 passing.
Even without Puka Nacua, I expect this excellent offense to survive, and on the opposite end, you'll never catch me dead believing in a Trevor Lawrence-led offense, particularly against a defense this strong.
Passes
Patriots vs Titans
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -340 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +270 |
I'm really starting to like the Patriots, but not this much. Cam Ward will return home to Tennessee following the best two starts of his young career, which resulted in a win over Arizona in Week 5 but a quieter showing against the Raiders in Week 6.
Ward was sacked six times last week, which was a big deal, but he was far more efficient against a worse secondary and continues to protect the ball somewhat well with a multi-interception game yet to come.
There's some life in Tennessee, but New England does have a rock-solid run defense which should put a ton of pressure on the rookie. It's not like the Patriots are that great in coverage, though, and do fail to get to the quarterback, so I see a clear way to a cover for Tennessee. I'm not feeling too great about anything here.
Verdict: Pass
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Raiders vs Chiefs
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -750 |
I haven't exactly shied away from taking crooked lines this season, but I'm certainly going to be sitting this game out. I do like the Raiders, but we didn't learn much at all last week against the Titans and I'm beginning to doubt the validity of this passing attack.
Kansas City hasn't dominated on defense, but it hasn't been bad, and more than that you have a team which is ranked 11th in interception rate which could spell trouble for the gun-slinging Geno Smith.
It's very hard to trust this Vegas defense against a trendy offense like this, but the Chiefs' defense has been known to throw away games easier than this one.
Verdict: Pass
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Giants vs Broncos
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -360 |
A young Giants offense will meet its first real test under Jaxson Dart when it takes on what appears to be the best defense in football this week, and while I do like what I'm seeing it's going to take a lot for this team to keep the foot on the gas.
Dart has ranked just 25th in passer rating under pressure among quarterbacks to take 20% of the dropbacks, and Denver has the second-highest pressure rate in football. Together with a solid run defense, there should be nowhere to go for the Giants here.
I certainly am not a big believer in Bo Nix, or this offense as a whole, but Denver's done enough to get wins on the board in spite of its scoring output and that shouldn't change here. The number gives me pause, because in theory it does feel like the Giants are better than this, but they just might not be able to score enough.
Verdict: Pass
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Colts vs Chargers
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
Ah, the incomparable Justin Herbert. It seems there's certainly many who can compare these days. After a fast start, the 27-year-old has now lost two of his last three as some interceptions and inefficient outputs have stymied his momentum, and that's had a lot to do with his offensive line slipping down the ranks to 28th in pass blocking according to PFF.
Herbert will have to contend with a strong Colts pass rush, and while corner Charvarius Ward hasn't been practicing this week it at least appears Kenny Moore II may play which would give them at least one healthy player at the position of the two.
Indy has struggled against the deep ball, however, and should at least be down one key man in coverage, so this could easily be a bounce-back spot for Herbert.
Still, the task should be quite sizable given the Chargers' defense has looked pedestrian on defense and will now have their hands full with Daniel Jones and the Colts.
This is just a hard one for me to bet at this number; the Chargers are in a classic buy-low spot with a quarterback who was lighting the league on fire just a few weeks ago, but I don't believe in this defense enough to pull the trigger.
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Leans
Saints vs Bears
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -245 |
Is Spencer Rattler actually good? This is a question I am beginning to ask myself. I mean, he looked pretty bad against the Cardinals in Week 1, but since then, he's been an efficient passer with a 68.5% completion percentage and just one interception to six touchdowns.
It's pretty clear this team isn't going to win a ton of games with the rushing attack sitting just 24th in DVOA and the defense grading out among the worst in the NFL, but is there a world where Rattler just keeps improving and gets the ball out to his plethora of playmakers?
I believe there is, at least in somewhat easy matchups. This should be one of them against the Bears, who rank among the middle of the league in coverage grade and just narrowly outside the bottom 10 against the run according to PFF. Washington was able to cash in on plenty of red zone trips last week and Jayden Daniels averaged 8.1 yards per attempt with three touchdowns in all, leading me to believe in Rattler here.
Caleb Williams still has a long way to go until he's a fully finished product, and while the run game did get going for Chicago, this is a Saints team that has been surprisingly stingy against the run. For the first time all year, I think I like New Orleans.
Verdict: Lean Saints +5
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Dolphins vs Browns
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 36.5 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 36.5 -115o / -105u | -150 |
The Dolphins' offense is one I've been following closely. They've continued to climb the ranks following an inauspicious start to the year, and as it stands right now, it's been the ground game where Miami has made the most inroads in recent weeks.
De'Von Achane tormented the Chargers last week only for Miami's defense to give this game away yet again — this time to Kimani Vidal in a depleted L.A. backfield and Justin Herbert, who was hardly pressured at all.
The question becomes, then, can this Dolphins defense do enough to earn a win? I mean, it's got the Cleveland Browns on the schedule — and while I like Dillon Gabriel, we haven't seen much life out of the offense in the first two weeks.
Miami and Cleveland each rank in the bottom two in pass blocking, which is sure to stymie both offenses given the strength of the Browns' defensive line, so that has me looking at a low-scoring game.
Verdict: Lean Under 40
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Commanders vs Cowboys
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
It's pretty shocking to me that the Cowboys continue to get little respect from oddsmakers — or the public as a whole. They may technically have a losing record because of their tie against the Packers, but that also means they've failed to lose at home this season — which is of note given they were a good team at home under Dak Prescott the last two seasons.
Furthermore, this offense looks great. They've managed to grade out better on the ground, which is quite surprising given the pre-season outlook for this team, and Prescott has looked like his old self in leading this team to some of the best numbers in football.
It's been the defense which has given this team the most issues, and that was evident against a bad Panthers team, but it wasn't as if Bryce Young took the top off this defense. The line was carved up by old friend Rico Dowdle, but now it will have an easier time against a Commanders offense which is still finding its footing with the return of Jayden Daniels.
In theory, this should be a slugfest between two teams which have struggled mightily on defense, and in a game like that I think you have to take the more believable of the two offenses. For me, that's Dallas. Am I crazy?
Verdict: Lean Cowboys +2
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NFL Week 6 Picks
Eagles vs Vikings
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +105 |
It doesn't seem quite time for the Vikings to turn back to JJ McCarthy yet — and the way Carson Wentz is playing it may take a while longer. He's now come up against three pretty solid pass rushes in three starts — beginning with the Bengals, Steelers and Browns, and he's managed to not only survive but torment these defenses through the air.
While it's not certain Wentz will start, it certainly looks like it given he's been able to do more in practice this week and has gone 2-1 in McCarthy's stead.
The veteran has earned back some respect, completing 69% of his passes for 7.6 yards on average and five touchdowns to just two interceptions. He's wound up getting sacked 12 times, persisting through it all, so why would we think the Eagles are going to silence him?
Philly has come crashing back down to Earth after what appeared to be an unsustainable start by the numbers, and now we've seen its true colors. The line has graded out poorly and Saquon Barkley has been unable to overcome it, leading the 17th-ranked rushing offense by DVOA.
Minnesota has been vulnerable to the run but has locked down in the secondary, and that should tip the scales to the Vikings here with Philly's defense looking weak and Minnesota rounding into form with Wentz.
Verdict: Bet Vikings +2
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Panthers vs Jets
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Sometimes as a Jets fan you want to cry, but this season has been particularly rough.
New York is winless through six weeks, but it seems it's had to play in a bad spot every game. The team has ranked 10th in strength of schedule to this point, but with the look of it it could easily be the toughest in the NFL given the Cowboys and Dolphins have played better than their record.
The Jets' offense has shown some promise, but a heavy dose of the run and some costly turnovers have stopped it in its tracks. Now the onus will be on Justin Fields to win this game, given the Panthers rank 27th in DVOA against the pass and seventh versus the run.
Now, Garrett Wilson's injury has caused the line to shift towards the Panthers, but I still think there's plenty to like here with Mason Taylor operating well as a pass-catcher in his rookie season and the backfield working well to support Fields when he opts to throw.
The big question is about this Jets defense, which has looked unrecognizable without Quincy Williams, but it looks like Michael Carter II will at least play in the secondary to combat one of the worst passing attacks in the NFL.
The Jets may get gashed on the ground here, something that's happened to them before this year, but I don't believe in Bryce Young or this Panthers defense which has lacked much of anything up front. New York should win on the line of scrimmage, at least on offense, which should open this game up for it.
Verdict: Bet Jets +1.5
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Packers vs Cardinals
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -315 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +255 |
I guess it's time to believe in the Arizona Cardinals. They may have fallen to 2-4 last week against the Colts, but Kyler Murray did hang 320 yards on a solid secondary while Arizona's coverage unit held Daniel Jones to just 212 yards on 22-of-30 passing.
If this team can find a way to stop teams from going crazy through the air, there may be some life in it. I mean, it's highly unlikely that this patchwork backfield is going to do much of anything, even against a Packers team which is middle of the road against the run, but why can't Murray work his magic again?
He just did the job against a solid secondary, and he can do it again — particularly given the Packers allow the highest checkdown rate in football and Arizona throws checkdowns at the fifth-highest clip.
The short passing game should be there, and Murray should find some yards with his legs as he always does. I want to ride this secondary, too, and seeing Dontayvion Wicks and Christian Watson limited in practice only reaffirms that belief. Green Bay is also down several members on the offensive line, namely Zach Tom at tackle, and their defense may be down an impact interior lineman in Devonte Wyatt.
There are just so many injuries here for Green Bay in what's already a tricky spot on the road.
Verdict: Bet Cardinals +6.5
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Sunday Night Football
Falcons vs 49ers
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -135 |
The 49ers' reign of terror finally came to an end last week when they met the mighty Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and now that the incredibly easy part of the schedule is out of the way we can finally see this team's true colors.
It's not like this was a bad team on paper, but there were just far too many injuries for San Francisco to maintain its hot start. The team is still missing Brandon Aiyuk at receiver, and has seen Skyy Moore, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall all pick up injuries.
It seems George Kittlecould return from injured reserve this week, but that's no guarantee — and with that I'm just really not feeling this 49ers offense. That's all without saying that we don't even know who the quarterback will be.
Fred Warner and Nick Bosadefinitely won't be playing on defense, however, and that's the bigger story here.
Atlanta's offense was one of the most exciting in football heading into the season and seemed to pick up some valuable momentum last week when Michael Penix Jr. torched Buffalo's secondary — a task made easier by Bijan Robinson having a legacy game on primetime.
San Francisco's defense already looked weak prior to a back-breaking injury to Warner, and last week it sacked Baker Mayfield just once while he had an efficient 256 yards on 17-of-23 passing.
I'm a big fan of the Falcons' offense on the whole, but that goes doubly in this matchup. They should keep improving with every week and there's just not enough this 49ers offense can do to put the pressure on.
Verdict: Bet Falcons +2
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Monday Night Football
Buccaneers vs Lions
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
We know the Lions love to run the ball, doing so at the fourth-highest clip in the league, and we also know they've been made to stop the run this season with the 11th-highest run play rate in the league. Detroit's done it quite well, giving up just four yards per carry to rank 10th, but it doesn't appear that's going to be something it can lean upon here.
The Buccaneers don't run the ball quite as much as they used to, this matchup should call for plenty of passing with Detroit's secondary continuing to slide last week, giving up a dominant game to Patrick Mahomes.
Baker Mayfield has been one of the best passers in football this year — even under pressure — and with his line continuing to excel in pass blocking I'm not sure Detroit's defense will look any better.
I expect plenty of passing, something that's suited the Buccaneers' offense this season, and that should be more than enough with Detroit learning the hard way in Week 6 that it can't get points on the board when it can't run the ball. You certainly can't run on Tampa Bay.
Verdict: Bet Buccaneers +5.5
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Texans vs Seahawks
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 41 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 41 -110o / -110u | -170 |
I'm still not really sure what to make of the Texans. Their secondary started the year on a sour note, but has quickly risen the ranks to the top five in the league by DVOA, though the defense hasn't been able to stop the run to save its life.
Well, Seattle's been all about the pass as it's opted not to run much with the lackluster production it's gotten in the backfield, and that may wind up stopping Sam Darnold and friends right in their tracks. I'm certainly not about to blindly throw my money behind C.J.
Stroud amidst his inauspicious start to the year, but maybe the Texans' offense turns a new page following the bye. I just wish we were getting points with Houston as a primetime home underdog, not laying points with Seattle as a short home favorite. I'll go ahead and pass.
Verdict: Pass
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