We went two-for-three in Week 6, and for Week 7's slate, I only have one pick.
Let's get into my NFL player prop bet for Week 7, featuring an interception prediction for Dolphins vs Browns.
NFL Player Props — Week 7
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 0.5 Interceptions (+105, BetMGM)
Dolphins vs Browns Player Prop: Tua Tagovailoa
Perhaps this is counterintuitive, but with a forecast that calls for 20+ mph winds and even higher gusts, this is a great spot to fade interceptions, and Tua Tagovailoa's prop offers the most value of the two quarterbacks in this game.
Interception rates droop just over 20% per pass attempt in high wind gusts, in part from attempts being shorter on average and also much harder to catch on deeper ones.
Quarterback pass attempts also drop by almost three pass attempts per game in high wind games.
Tua's career interceptions per pass attempt is 2.21% since 2022 at 30.5 pass attempts (which is his current line, which I'd even lean under) with a 20% drop down to 1.77%. I'd get close to a 60% chance to stay under this, before adjusting for his opponent.
As good as the Browns' defense is, they have only defended 19 passes on 169 attempts, putting them 11th worst in that department, and they've only converted on two of those 19 unto interceptions which, on a per-game basis is sixth worst.
We're getting plus-money on a quarterback that's solidly favored to not throw an interception. I'd play this to -125.
Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Under 0.5 Interceptions (+105)
