Here are my three favorite NFL sides for Week 7.
Let's get into my NFL Week 7 picks and predictions for Sunday, October 19.
NFL Week 7 Picks & Predictions
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Editor's Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These NFL picks have value as straight bets.
Dolphins vs Browns
I'm playing the Browns as a favorite. What could possibly go wrong?
A lot, but I do like Cleveland here based on the matchup and how I see this game playing out in what looks like horrendous weather conditions in the factory of sadness.
With all that wind projected, this will likely come down to which team can run the ball more effectively. To me, that answer is clearly Cleveland.
While the Browns rank in the top three in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush allowed, the Dolphins rank 22nd and 31st, respectively.
I trust Quinshon Judkins to have an efficient enough game on the ground against a Miami defense that just allowed Kimani Vidal to rush for 124 yards on 18 carries (6.9) behind a bunch of backup offensive linemen, just one week after Rico Dowdle went for 206 on 23 attempts.
I just don't see the path for the Dolphins to do anything against this dominant Cleveland defense that plays at another level at home. The one blemish on its statistical profile is explosive passes allowed, where the Browns rank 21st.
Well, Miami ranks 24th in that department, now has no Tyreek Hill, and will have to deal with the potential of 50-60 mph wind gusts, which will completely neuter both downfield passing attacks. That hurts the Dolphins much more.
There also could be some red zone regression in the cards for the Browns, who have allowed a league-worst 80% red zone TD%. Meanwhile, Miami's offense ranks No. 2 in the league at 75%.
This Dolphins team just has no redeeming qualities. Its offensive line is horrendous, and the same goes for the entire defense, which has a bottom-five pressure rate despite blitzing at a top-five rate.
Dillon Gabriel has not looked good, but he has played the Vikings and Steelers defenses away from home to start his career. This will be a nice break, and he did grade out as elite against the blitz throughout his collegiate career.
Regardless, the Browns defense is clearly the best unit in this game, and I believe they will have much more success running it in miserable conditions, which will ultimately prove to be the difference against a Miami team that has gone 10-16 on the road under Mike McDaniel compared to 19-9 in friendly confines.
For what it's worth, I personally parlayed Browns ML with Chiefs ML at about even money. Every point will matter in this game with a total approaching 35 as I type this.
Pick: Browns ML (-150)
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Eagles vs Vikings
For starters, I have arguably the sharpest coaching staff in the league coming off a bye at home in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.
Additionally, Minnesota should be much healthier across the board on Sunday, especially along the offensive line. The Vikings should also benefit from the return of linebacker Blake Cashman, who will help in the run game.
Carson Wentz will start at quarterback, and he's a slight upgrade over J.J. McCarthy at the moment. He will also get to face an Eagles defense that has taken a significant step back in 2025.
This is a unit that grades out below average, no matter how you slice it. They rank 19th in both EPA per Play and Success Rate. The edge rush has cratered, while the run defense has struggled (29th in Success Rate).
They also have issues in the secondary —although it does look like stud cornerback Quinyon Mitchell will give it a go. I doubt he and Jalen Carter will both be at 100%.
The Vikings should have opportunities to move the ball with Wentz, who has actually been okay so far, ranking 12th in Adjusted EPA and 7th in CPOE out of 33 qualified quarterbacks —higher than Philly's QB Jalen Hurts in both.
Additionally, this looks like a nightmare matchup for the Eagles offense, which has gone into the tank for long stretches of almost every game this season.
Under struggling new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, the offense has been especially dreadful against zone and blitz —significantly worse than even under Brian Johnson.
That could spell doom against Brian Flores —one of the most blitz-heavy defensive coordinators in the league, who's also utilizing as much zone as anybody in 2025.
Flores has also used the most Cover 2 in the NFL through six weeks, which might keep Hurts up at night this week. He's essentially been the worst quarterback in the league against that coverage this season, with a horrid 35% success rate.
This Eagles offense is broken. They lead the NFL in three-and-out rate and can't even get Saquon Barkley going behind a struggling offensive line that isn't fully healthy at the moment.
As a result, Barkley has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 36% of his carries —the second-highest rate in the league. Last year, that rate sat at 24%. He's also averaging a whopping four yards less per carry in the second half of games than he did in 2024.
Until I see the operation get any better, the Eagles will remain only a fade look for me.
I also maintain there will be a week where the Eagles finally get bit by the league cracking down on their illegal tush pushes, which could kill a drive or take points off the board.
I'll take the points in what I think is a true coin flip game with some key Minnesota matchup advantages.
Pick: Vikings +2.5 (-114)
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Colts vs Chargers
The Colts are undoubtedly a decent football team with an improved defense (no more Gus Bradley!) and an offense firing on all cylinders under quarterback Daniel Jones.
With that said, they have wins over Bo Nix (thanks to a leaping penalty), Cam Ward, Geno Smith, and Tua Tagovailoa. Not exactly a murderer's row of QB opponents. They've also been fairly fortunate when it comes to things like fourth downs, fumbles, turnover margin and field goals.
Meanwhile, the Chargers have not. For example, Los Angeles has the lowest red zone TD% in the league at 35%. For reference, only one team has finished under 40% over the past five seasons. They will see some positive regression on that front.
The Chargers have been bitten by injuries along the offensive line, which have really hurt the entire offensive operation. However, there's a chance they are a bit healthier this week, and the Colts at least don't feature a completely overwhelming pass rush.
More importantly, the Indianapolis secondary is in shambles with Charvarius Ward out with a concussion. He's arguably been the best cornerback in the league this season and was sorely missed last week when Jacoby Brissett and a banged-up Arizona wide receiver room completely carved up the Indy secondary.
It does look like stud nickel Kenny Moore will return on Sunday from an Achilles injury, but he might not be at 100% and could also be on a pitch count. Chargers QB Justin Herbert will find a way to dice up this beat-up back end.
The Colts will have success running the ball with Jonathan Taylor, but there's a chance the Chargers get some reinforcements back on their defense to help in that department.
Plus, Daniel Jones is way overdue for some mistakes, which I believe Jesse Minter's defense will bait him into. Jones is essentially only throwing to his first read and has completely misread safeties numerous times and gotten away with it. That simply won't last.
In what is projected to be a super competitive game, a turnover or two could swing this result. And Jones is much more likely to make that critical mistake than Herbert, who owns one of the lowest interception rates in the history of the league in addition to a TWP rate that sits two times lower than Jones this year.
Lastly, a missed kick or two could determine this result, and the Chargers have the clear edge in that department with Cameron Dicker — the most accurate kicker in NFL history at 94.6% — while the Colts have Chargers cast-off Michael Badgley, who owns a career 82% make rate.
Give me the Bolts.
Pick: Chargers ML (-130)
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Anytime Touchdown Parlay
- Harold Fannin Jr. Anytime TD
- Mason Taylor Anytime TD
