Bills Super Bowl Odds, Win Total, More Futures: Expect Josh Allen To Dominate In 2021
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Action's Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, simulated the 2021 NFL season 10,000 times to project win totals and playoff odds for every AFC East team in order to identify early value on their futures.
Here's how he sees things shaking out for the Buffalo Bills.
Bills 2022 Super Bowl Odds
After Josh Allen's breakout performance last season, the Bills sit at +1200 to win Super Bowl LVI as of July 30.
| Super Bowl Odds at FanDuel | +1200 |
Bills Win Total Projections
| Average Wins | 11.2 |
| Make vs. Miss Playoffs | 83.8% vs. 16.2% |
| Win Total at FanDuel | Over 11 (-110) / Under 11 (-110) |
Bills Betting Predictions
Allen is coming off a breakout season where he finished as runner-up for the 2020 MVP award.
Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll deserves a ton of credit for Allen's Year 3 breakout. Not only did he turn the Bills into a pass-heavy offense (second-highest early-pass down frequency), but he also dialed up more play-action dropbacks for Allen (led the league with 217). Daboll created an offensive scheme that was able to unlock the young QB’s massive potential.
Neither Daboll nor defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier was plucked away from another organization to become a head coach, meaning both will return to Buffalo for the 2021 season. That is a big reason why I lean on the Over 11 wins for the Bills. They maintain the continuity of being one of the best-coached teams in the league.
Their Pythagorean expected win total of 10.6 makes their 13-3 record last season seem a bit lucky. However, I like to also look at Game Time (Leading) that Football Outsiders tracks. Last season the Bills led for 38:02 of game time on average, translating to roughly 13.1 wins based on my expected wins metric. It's likely the Bills played softer defense with the lead — which hurt their point differential — but were every bit as dominant as their 13-3 record would indicate.
Lean: Over 11 (-110) at FanDuel
2021 AFC East Projections
The Bills currently sit as my favorites to win the AFC East.
| Team | 1st Place | 2nd Place | 3rd Place | 4th Place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 63.1% | 23.5% | 11.3% | 2.1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 19.7% | 33.8% | 32.1% | 14.3% |
| New England Patriots | 15.5% | 35.2% | 37.5% | 11.8% |
| New York Jets | 1.5% | 7.7% | 19.3% | 71.5% |
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