The Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) and Denver Broncos (7-2) open Week 10 on Thursday Night Football on November 6. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo. The game will broadcast on Prime Video.
The Broncos are favored by -9 on the spread over the Raiders (Broncos -9); the over/under is 43 points. The Broncos are -500 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Raiders are +375 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thursday Night Football preview and Raiders vs. Broncos prediction.
Raiders vs Broncos Prediction
- Raiders vs Broncos pick: Under 43; bet to Under 42.5
My Raiders vs Broncos best bet is the game total under 43. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Raiders vs Broncos Odds
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -500 |
Raiders vs Broncos Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Raiders Have the Ball
The Raiders face a brutal short-week matchup against a Broncos defense that leads the league with a 43% pressure rate. That’s bad news for a Raiders offensive line that’s been one of the weakest in football. Expect Geno Smith to be under heavy pressure throughout tonight's game.
This also comes right after one of the biggest pre-trade deadline moves — the Jakobi Meyers trade to Jacksonville. Without him, the Raiders will likely lean more on two-TE personnel with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer, alongside Tre Tucker and Tyler Lockett.
That setup makes it harder to exploit the possible absence of the Broncos' Patrick Surtain II, who may miss a second straight game. I expect Smith to lean heavily on his tight ends, especially Bowers, as his primary safety valves.
The run game doesn’t get any easier either. The Broncos are third in rush defense DVOA, and rookie Ashton Jeanty has been hit hard by poor blocking — he leads the league in stuff rate (31%), meaning nearly a third of his runs fail to gain a yard.
The Broncos rank top 10 in stuff rate allowed and have held runners to just 0.67 yards after contact, the second-lowest mark in the NFL.
With Smith's EPA/dropback dropping from 22nd with a clean pocket to 28th under pressure, and the ground game unlikely to get going, it’s hard to project many points from the Raiders offense.
When the Broncos Have the Ball
The Raiders defense is on the opposite end of the spectrum, ranking second-lowest in pressure rate. Maxx Crosby has the lowest pressure rate of his career, largely because he’s being double-teamed constantly and is getting no help from the rest of the front.
That should give Broncos quarterback Bo Nix plenty of clean pockets — though oddly enough, that hasn’t translated into efficiency. Nix ranks 19th in EPA/dropback under pressure, but drops to 26th from a clean pocket.
Nix has also been fairly conservative on third downs, throwing short of the sticks at a high rate and relying on yards after the catch from his receivers to move the chains.
The Raiders’ recent defensive tweaks should help neutralize that approach. Jeremy Chinn took over the strong safety/linebacker hybrid role from Jamal Adams, while Elandon Roberts saw an uptick in snaps to help in run support. Isaiah Pola-Mao also lined up three yards closer to the line of scrimmage last week, giving the Raiders more flexibility to specifically slow down the Broncos approach on offense.
That setup could force Nix to take more deep shots, which is something he’s struggled with, ranking 27th in EPA/pass on throws 20+ yards downfield.
Combine that with a Raiders offense that may struggle to score, and both teams could play things fairly conservatively.
Raiders vs Broncos Prediction, Betting Analysis
The spread between 8.5 and 9.5 feels about right.
It’s tough to see the Raiders offense moving the ball much against Denver’s defense, but the Broncos offense has been slightly overrated, and the Raiders’ defensive adjustments could help slow them down.
I think the under is the best play tonight among sides and totals. It’s worth monitoring if this line climbs to 43.5, since 43 is a key total number.
Either way, this game should offer plenty of prop value once I finish my deep dive there so be sure to follow me in the app for those picks before kickoff.
Pick: Under 43; bet to under 42.5
Spread
The spread hovering around 8.5-9.5 points is about right in my opinion. I have no play for either side.
Moneyline
I have no player for either moneyline.
Over/Under
The under is my best bet for tonight's game. Monitor to see if it creeps up to 43.5.
