NFL Week 10 kicks off with Raiders vs Broncos on Thursday Night Football.
The Broncos enter Thursday Night Football on a six-game winning streak that has propelled them to first place in the AFC West. The Raiders, meanwhile, haven't won a game in almost a month.
- For more Thursday Night Football coverage, check out my Raiders vs Broncos preview, which includes my over/under pick for TNF.
Tonight, I'm targeting Broncos quarterback Bo Nix in the prop market as I believe there's an edge on his rushing yards prop. Find my over/under prop bet for Nix below.
NFL Prop Bet: Bo Nix Over/Under Prediction
Bo Nix has cleared 21.5 rushing yards in four of his last five games, but a deeper look shows he’s scrambling at a much lower rate this season — he only has two scrambles over his last three games.
Both of those scrambles went for 21+ yards, which is the clear path for this prop to lose early — one or two long scrambles and it’s toast. Like every prop, there’s a very real way it loses.
However, Nix has only scrambled on 4.5% of his dropbacks this season compared to 7.7% as a rookie. I actually think he should be scrambling more since he’s a good runner, but he’s playing more in structure this year and behind an elite offensive line that keeps his pocket clean.
Nix should have one of his cleanest pockets of the season against a Raiders defense that is the second worst in the NFL in pressure rate. The Raiders' Maxx Crosby has the lowest pressure rate of his career because teams are doubling him and the rest of the pass rush hasn’t stepped up.
That means Nix should face even less pressure that would push him out of the pocket to use his legs. I still expect 1-2 scrambles and maybe a designed run or two, but the Raiders have been one of the best teams at limiting yards on scrambles, allowing just 5.3 yards per scramble (third-lowest in the league) despite facing several mobile QBs.
Plus, they’ve been more aggressive with where their safeties line up; Jeremy Chinn played no snaps deep last week and Isaiah Pola-Mao lined up three yards closer to the line of scrimmage. A similar approach tonight could limit the odds of Nix hitting another long scramble.
It’s possible Nix pops one early, but I think the market is a bit inflated based on those recent long runs.
I have this closer to 18.5 yards with around a 59% chance Nix stays under 21.5.
