Thursday Night Football in Week 10 features the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High.
- For more Thursday Night Football coverage, check out Sean Koerner's Raiders vs Broncos preview.
For my top Raiders vs. Broncos NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays, I’m highlighting Geno Smith, Ashton Jeanty, and Bo Nix.
Geno Smith
Less Than 32.5 Pass Attempts
If the Raiders are going to keep this game closer than the spread implies, they'll need to run the ball and attempt to control the clock.
However, racking up time of possession is not their thing.
Las Vegas ranks 25th in time of possession percentage on the season, and while Denver is not much better, the game script does not lend itself to the Raiders throwing the ball with much volume.
Geno Smith has stayed under this total in half of his games this season, and in addition to the limited opportunity to throw, he may have a rough go of it when he does drop back. The Broncos are first in sack rate, second in opponent completion percentage and seventh in yards per pass allowed.
Everything points to the Raiders running more tonight as it's their best path for success.
Ashton Jeanty
More Than 0.5 Touchdowns
Building off the scheme highlighted above is the direct beneficiary, running back Ashton Jeanty.
Jeanty has received a ton of volume on the ground, and that does not change when the Raiders get to the red zone.
He has racked up 18 red-zone carries this season, an average of 2.3 attempts per game. However, he's also proven to be a short-yardage receiving weapon, as he's garnered seven red-zone targets as well.
With all eyes on Brock Bowers, look for Jeanty to find his way into the end zone tonight.
Bo Nix
More Than 215.5 Passing Yards
On the other side of the ball, we should see the Broncos have a ton of success through the air. The Raiders rank 23rd in opponent completion percentage, 17th in yards per pass allowed and have generated very little pressure.
While Bo Nix has not been very effective through the air, his offensive line has kept him upright as the Broncos have allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL.
With no pressure against a porous secondary, we should see Nix have one of his better games through the air and sail beyond a total that is lower than his season average.
