NFL Week 10 opens with AFC West rivals on Thursday Night Football as the Las Vegas Raiders take on the Denver Broncos.
That's where I begin my Week 10 picks, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate, including Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
NFL Week 10 Odds & Picks
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 10 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football |
Thursday Night Football
Raiders vs Broncos
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -115 | 43 -110o / -110u | +390 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -105 | 43 -110o / -110u | -525 |
The Raiders offense finally emerged from the darkness last week against Jacksonville, but it's still incredibly hard to get behind this team in a matchup with Denver.
The Broncos may not offer a ton offensively, but their defense remains one of the best in the league and should command this one.
Las Vegas ranks third-worst in scoring offense, and a big issue is the offensive line. Geno Smith has crumbled under pressure this season, and the Broncos own the fifth-highest pressure rate in football.
I realize Pat Surtain II is missing, and several other members of the secondary were on the injury report this week, but it appears most players will suit up, which should doom Smith.
The veteran owns a poor 42.6 passer rating under pressure this year, and to make matters worse, the Broncos have successfully brought the quarterback down on their pressures with the top sack rate in football.
I suspect that brings this game to a halt; I will rarely bet on Bo Nix to run up the score.
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Passes
Saints vs Panthers
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
The Saints turned to Tyler Shough at quarterback last week, and it only seemed to hurt an offense that has been struggling all season long. New Orleans managed just 224 yards of total offense, going 2-for-9 on third down and 0-for-2 on fourth, and while Shough was sacked just once, he managed a measly 6.4 yards per attempt.
Now, that's not to say things can't change. The Panthers have allowed the eighth-most yards per carry in the league and rank just 16th in scoring defense. The Saints have been largely ineffective on the ground this season, but they did get a boost from Taysom Hill last week and that's certainly in the cards for Week 10.
Without knowing how this offense will take shape — particularly after the Saints traded away Rashid Shaheed this week — it's hard for me to take a side here. I don't like the Panthers, and this is the first time all season they've been favored. They're favored by nearly six points. No thanks.
Verdict: Pass
Jaguars vs Texans
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
Just when I was getting excited about a surging Texans offense, C.J. Stroud goes down with an injury. Nothing has been decided yet, but with Stroud missing practice, it certainly sounds like he's doubtful to suit up, and that means we get to see Davis Mills under center on Sunday.
The good news for Mills is that despite one of the highest blitz rates in football, the Jaguars rank just 23rd in pressure rate and have delivered a generous 79.1% clean-pocket rate to rank around the middle of the league. Houston has also allowed the ninth-lowest pressure rate in the league, so you'd assume Mills gets to fire his best bullet here.
Mills did grade out decently well last season in a small 36-attempt sample, but it's really hard to get a read on his ability with so few starts in the last three seasons. He did show promise around some turnover concerns in his first two seasons, and perhaps he's grown since then. Unfortunately, the Jaguars have recorded the second-best interception rate in football this season.
It's going to be difficult to call this one, as the Jaguars have struggled against the pass but do possess the ability to come away with a big turnover on Mills, who led the league in interceptions three seasons ago. Given they stop the run very well, and Houston offers little there, it looks like a Jaguars win. Don't sleep on Houston's defense against an unproven offense, however.
Verdict: Pass
Lions vs Commanders
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -450 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +350 |
Just when you thought the Commanders couldn't get any more confusing, they lose Jayden Daniels to another injury. It wasn't exactly the best showing for Washington, which allowed four sacks and managed just 4.4 yards per carry — a number which Daniels did well to boost.
Now, the Commanders will be starting Marcus Mariota against the league's second-best pass defense by DVOA, and their already-weak ground game will take a further tumble without the prowess of Daniels.
This doesn't feel like an attainable game, but Mariota has delivered as a fill-in many times in the last few years and Detroit has certainly played down to competition, narrowly escaping with a cover against the Browns and Bengals and losing as a 9.5-point favoried last week against Minnesota. I can't in good conscience back the dogs, but man, why do I want to?
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Giants vs Bears
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
The Giants may have the longest injury report of the season entering Week 10, and that's without counting the season-ending injuries to Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo. New York currently has two starting members of the offensive line listed as questionable, and neither has been able to practice yet this week. It's also got five starters in danger of missing the game on defense, and of those just Jevon Holland and Rakeem Nunez-Roches have been able to practice.
So, we're just looking at a mess here on the Giants' side. As for the Bears, they've been victimized by injuries of their own, but it looks like D'Andre Swift will return and enjoy rising rookie Kyle Monangai in the backfield.
The Giants have been terrible against the run, and Chicago would like nothing more than to pound the rock as the 10th-most run-happy team in the league. It's very hard for me to get a read on anything going on with the Giants, but I do think this number is short. Chicago's covered in five of its last six.
Verdict: Lean Bears -4.5
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NFL Week 10 Picks
Falcons vs Colts
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +250 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -310 |
Well, the Colts were finally done in last week by a formidable Steelers pass rush, and now it appears they'll be up against it this week. The Falcons rank 10th in pressure rate and fifth in sack rate this season, and Indy may be down starting right guard Matt Goncalves as well.
The Colts' line has been so good all year, and Daniel Jones has thrived under pressure, but that didn't seem to matter last week. Pittsburgh's elite pass rush sacked Jones five times, and now the question becomes just how potent this Atlanta pass rush is.
I suspect the Falcons' defense comes to play here, but the question is generally about this offense. The Colts will feature a stronger look defensively with Sauce Gardner looking likely to debut, but Kenny Moore II and DeForest Buckner are still dealing with injuries. Indy has been right around the middle league against the run, so there's certainly potential in Atlanta — enough to take what's a hefty line.
Bills vs Dolphins
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | +375 |
So much for that "If only Tua could stay healthy" sentiment, this guy stinks. Whether or not it's the injuries catching up to him is irrelevant, we must call a spade a spade, and this entire offense is now in a brutal spot as a result.
Let's talk about the defense for a moment, however. It looks like the Dolphins will finally have a full bill of health at safety with Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ashtyn Davis both practicing, and Bradley Chubb was able to practice as well.
Miami surprisingly has the 14th-best run defense by DVOA this season, a number which is only shocking because the team ranks 29th overall. That's just how bad the secondary has been, but now it seems it's slowly growing healthier.
This has all the makings of a trap game for a Bills team that loves to run the ball. They do it more than anyone, and it just hasn't been very easy to do against Miami this season. I don't necessarily know if that means the Dolphins can score the ball, but they did do a good job moving it on Buffalo earlier in the season. I think we take the points at home.
Verdict: Bet Dolphins +9.5
Ravens vs Vikings
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +180 |
Now here is a game I want to watch. The Ravens are a desperate team at this point in the season, looking to crawl out of the early hole caused by an injury to Lamar Jackson. Their hero made a triumphant return last week, throwing for four touchdowns in a big win over Miami, and now he's got the Vikings on the menu — a team that just took out the Detroit Lions last week.
J.J. McCarthy made his own return from injury last week for Minnesota, but despite the win it wasn't his best showing. Aaron Jones led the way with 78 yards in the backfield, and as the team found itself in scoring position McCarthy stepped up with two passing touchdowns and a third with his own legs.
There was nothing too potent about Minnesota's look on offense, and now it may have to turn to a less-impactful Jordan Mason in the backfield with Jones missing practice this week. Baltimore's defense has been pretty terrible all season, but as I suspected it looked much better last week with Jackson's return bringing optimism. I just look at both of these teams can't believe the Ravens are only laying 4.5, but I simultaneously can't believe I have this much faith in a 3-5 team.
Verdict: Bet Ravens -4.5
Browns vs Jets
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | +115 |
It's not tank, baby, tank. It's churn, baby, churn. The Jets' defense looked abysmal for much of the year despite starting Quinnen Williams on the line and Sauce Gardner in the secondary, and now that both are gone we're going to see some under-utilized players vying for big roles on the team.
Brandon Stephens has been enjoying an excellent year at corner, and now he's been anointed the Jets' new starter at the position opposite Jarvis Brownlee — who's been a revelation since coming over in a mid-season trade with Tennessee — and Azareye'h Thomas, who's been used mainly in the last two weeks and has graded out well according to Pro Football Focus.
I'm a little surprised the team decided to bench Quincy Willaims, who was one of their best players, but aside from that I'm not nearly as sour on the defense as many are following the trade deadline. The offense has been another story, but the Jets are still moving the ball on the ground with the second-most yards per carry.
Now, Cleveland has stopped the run brilliantly all season while getting to the quarterback with ease, but a heavy dose of the run is the best way to slow the impact of edge rushers and New York can draw up runs for Justin Fields to sweeten the deal.
Cleveland's offense has been so bad with Dillon Gabriel under center, so with a defense filled with hungry and talented personnel that will be playing for a job next season, the Jets are the move.
Verdict: Bet Jets +2.5
Patriots vs Buccaneers
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -150 |
We've got a slugfest on our hands between two excellent defenses. New England and Tampa Bay rank fourth and fifth in DVOA against the run, respectively, and we know the Patriots' offense is designed around the run with the fourth-highest run play rate in the league.
Now, the Buccaneers do love to throw — and the Patriots have struggled to stop the pass — but New England's allowed very few passing plays this season as the offense has taken control of the game early, and the defense has forced opposing quarterbacks into long throws on passing downs.
We spoke about it last week, but Drake Maye has been tremendous under pressure. He grades out as the 10th-best quarterback against the blitz according to PFF, and Tampa Bay runs a blitz on 38.1% of snaps, the fifth-highest in the league.
That could be a deciding factor here as we look to find an edge in a game that's hard to call, but another deciding factor is certainly going to be how well New England's defense fares. It's had the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, and it seems it's only going to remain easy with Tampa Bay ranking 28th in rushing DVOA and just 19th through the air.
The Buccaneers are just the 15th-best scoring offense in football and 19th in yards per play, and critically they've been one of the worst teams on third and fourth down, an area where the Patriots rank in the top five defensively.
Verdict: Bet Patriots +2.5
Cardinals vs Seahawks
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +255 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -315 |
If there were ever a time for the Cardinals' defense to make a statement, it's right here. Sam Darnold and the Seahawks own the most dangerous passing attack in the game, and Arizona's secondary has been one of the surprise stories of 2025.
Now, Seattle isn't exactly throwing it all that much on account of its early-game dominance, and despite running the ball at the second-highest clip in the league it has managed just 3.7 yards per carry. Arizona's continued to improve against the run, now sitting 20th in DVOA, and behind the line it's allowed just 6.5 yards per attempt — the fifth-fewest in the league.
With the Cardinals' stinginess against the deep ball and their defense coming in with a near-full bill of health, I'm confident they can slow Seattle enough to make this a game. I'm even more assured after watching Jacoby Brissett last week.
Verdict: Bet Cardinals +6.5
Rams vs 49ers
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
Will the 49ers' luck machine ever lose steam? They're now 6-3 despite rotating Mac Jones and Brock Purdy at quarterback for an offense that's missing so many key names. Ricky Pearsall has still not been able to return to practice, Brandon Aiyuk has already been lost, and while Jauan Jennings is back he's still working his way back to full health.
That's to say, we don't even know once again who the quarterback will be. Brock Purdy is back at practice after nursing turf toe, but how confident can we truly be in the 23rd-ranked scoring offense? San Francisco's dead last in yards per carry to boot, and while it's been efficient through the air that's only because its completion percentage has been so low. The offense has relied upon yards after the catch on checkdowns.
Well, the Rams have allowed the third-fewest yards after the catch on average and that should just about stick a knife in the 49ers here. The defense has simply been too bad to make up for any more shortcomings by the offense, and this is a matchup nightmare.
Verdict: Bet Rams -4.5
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Sunday Night Football
Steelers vs Chargers
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 45 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 45 -110o / -110u | -150 |
While a strong Steelers pass rush ultimately helped them stop the seemingly unstoppable Colts offense, this matchup is going to be as little bit tougher.
Justin Herbert has stood tall this season as the league's best passer against the blitz, according to PFF, and he ranks second against overall pressure.
Now, it doesn't mean he hasn't been vulnerable in these spots — the Chargers have allowed the most pressures and third-most sacks in the league. With that said, though, the Steelers don't stand as an efficient defense and have allowed 7.4 yards per attempt with the front seven doing most of the heavy lifting in slowing the run.
The Chargers throw the ball the seventh-most in the league and have proven they can do it in the face of pressure, so why can't they do it here?
Pittsburgh hardly runs, and when it has it's been a bottom-five offense. That covers up the biggest weakness for L.A.'s defense, and should mean a big win.
Verdict: Lean Chargers -3
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Monday Night Football
Eagles vs Packers
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -130 |
I don't really understand how the Eagles work. You're telling me they rank 19th in scoring defense and 17th in yards per play, yet stand tall at 6-2?
Well, there are a few factors. First is that they've scored a touchdown on an insane 85% of red-zone trips — the best mark in the league by a considerable margin. The second is that they've gone 11-for-14 on fourth down to rank fifth-best, meaning if they do find themselves in a desperate situation they've generally been able to get out of it. Such is life with the Brotherly Shove.
Anyway, you need a great front seven to beat this Eagles team, and the Packers have one of those. They've been top-10 all year in most rushing categories and have only allowed a run on 36.4% of snaps — the second-lowest clip in the league.
Green Bay's making you beat it through the air, which has been tough on account of its league-best 5.8 yards allowed per attempt, and while Philly has been efficient when passing it's thrown the third-fewest times on average.
We'll have a stalemate as a result. I'd reckon the Packers fare better, considering their rushing offense has been better than Philly's passing offense, and that will be important with a big pass-catcher in Tucker Kraft now out for Green Bay.
I also think the Packers' excellence on third down, and the Eagles' poor numbers in that split, could play a role in deciding this one.
Verdict: Lean Packers -2.5
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