Bet the Prop’s 4 Favorite Super Bowl Props
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: C.J. Anderson (35), Tom Brady (12), Julian Edelman (11).
- Bet The Prop's Cort Smith has four prop bets that he likes for Super Sunday.
- This piece will focus on Ram RB C.J. Anderson, Patriots QB Tom Brady, WR Julian Edelman and one pre-gam bonus prop.
It’s been a phenomenal run this season, as our picks at Bet the Prop went 337-230 (59%) in the regular season and 42-20 (68%) overall in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Player Props Tool has been humming along at a 64% clip (235-120) clip on bets rated 10 since the start of the season.
Sadly, our time taking the books to the cleaners is coming to a close for now. So let’s take advantage of this final opportunity as we look at Bet the Prop’s four favorite Super Bowl prop bets.
Rams RB CJ Anderson
Under 55.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
We played Anderson’s under on 47.5 rushing yards earlier this week, but that line has been adjusted to the low-40 mark at most books.
Considering that he has just two targets and one catch in these playoffs, this rushing and receiving prop might actually be an even better value. The thrice-cut Anderson is simply not part of the passing game, even as Todd Gurley spent much of the past two games on the sidelines.
With just five receiving yards in the playoffs, Anderson will likely have to rush for at least 50 yards to hit the over here, and that’s just not a high probability outcome. Sean Koerner is projecting him for 42.6 rushing yards and 4.3 receiving for a 46.9 total, 15.5% short of the betting line.
Despite out-carrying Gurley by a 4-1 margin in the championship game, Anderson still managed just 44 yards, and all signs point to the star back being a much bigger part of the game plan this week.
I would play this number down to 53.5, and at this line, would pay up to -130.
Julian Edelman (-8.5) > Robert Woods, Receiving Yards (-120)
Like the Anderson prop, Edelman’s receiving totals have ballooned since they were released last week, to the point where there’s not much meat left on the bone.
But based on what we’ve seen from these two in the playoffs, I like Edelman’s chances of putting up at least nine more receiving yards than Woods.
- Edelman is averaging 11.5 targets and 123.5 receiving yards in these playoffs and has at least 10 targets in 11-straight playoff games
- Woods is averaging nine targets and 51 yards in the playoffs
- He’s gone under 80 yards in seven of his past eight games, while Edelman has 80 or more in four of his past eight
As Ian Hartitz pointed out in his matchup manifesto, Woods also likely has the toughest assignment of any receiver in this Super Bowl in the form of cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
Patriots QB Tom Brady
Over 39 Pass Attempts (-110)
We originally booked this bet at over 37.5 attempts when the lines were released last week, and while the 39 number is less exciting, it’s still a solid value.
- Over his past five Super Bowl appearances, Brady is averaging 49.8 pass attempts with a low mark of 41.
- In his past 14 playoffs games, he’s averaged 45.8 attempts
- He’s gone under 39 attempts in three of those 14 games, and in all three instances, he fell short by just one attempt (38)
Regardless of the score, expect Brady to be chucking it all over the field.
Will Gladys Knight Kneel During the Anthem? No (-1000)
This is likely the first and last time we ever recommend betting a prop with such a poor return on investment, but the chances of Knight kneeling are surely much longer than the 9% probability implied by this line.
Putting politics aside for a moment, she’s 74-years old; kneeling is not something that septuagenarians generally do a lot.
Based on her comments to Variety magazine, proving a political point doesn’t seem to be on Knight’s agenda either. The soul legend told Variety that the two issues of social injustice and the national anthem should “stand alone,” adding that she hopes her performance will “bring us all together.”
That doesn’t sound like an icon who’s ready to embrace the certain firestorm of controversy that would follow from taking a knee.
It’s also extremely unlikely that the NFL would have booked any performer it who it thought posed even the slightest risk of showing them up by kneeling.