Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
Here are the NFL Week 10 picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 10 Picks & Predictions
Jaguars vs Texans Over/Under Pick
Just keep riding Texans unders in Week 10. Not only is their defense great and offense bad, but now C.J. Stroud is in concussion protocol.
The total has dropped from 41.5 to 39.5/38.5 at some books given the Stroud injury and uncertainty surrounding his status.
The Jaguars offense continues to be uninspiring even after their bye week. They are also undermanned with Travis Hunter on injured reserve and Brian Thomas getting banged up against the Raiders. Their passing attack will almost assuredly be eliminated against the Texans, who have the No. 1 pass defense by DVOA.
The Jaguars have a good run defense so that will stress the Texans' passing attack, which could be led by Davis Mills. It's hard to see that going well.
The last seven Jaguars-Texans games have averaged 35.3 PPG, all but one game at 45 points or below.
The Texans are 6-2 to the under this season. Their game against Baltimore hit 54 points, but otherwise their game totals average 33.6 PPG. Houston's already played five games that have stayed under 39.5.
The Jaguars have played games with the following totals: 42, 36, 32 and 27. And don't forget the Jags-Raiders game on Sunday had 15 total points through three quarters before an explosion of scoring in the fourth. The Jags somehow had six points against the Raiders in three quarters off their bye week. Insanity.
The Jaguars are 6-2 to just the 1st-half under if you want to wait, but this total is dropping fast.
Pick: Under 39.5 (DraftKings)
Rams vs 49ers Spread Prediction
I'd love to get Rams -2.5, but it's -3 across the board at the time of writing and I'm not waiting around for it.
These NFC West rivals are trending in opposite directions.
The 49ers may be 6-3 after beating the Giants on Sunday, but they somehow keep taking on injuries after losing Mykel Williams, who was their best defensive lineman left.
I have the 49ers defense ranked last at the moment — they're basically worse than the Cowboys now.
On the quarterback front, it doesn't sound like Brock Purdy's close to being activated either.
The Rams have a case for the title of best team in the NFL. They entered Week 9 in the top quarter of the league in Offensive and Defensive Pass/Run DVOA.
It's hard to see what the 49ers are better at. They have Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle … and that's it. They don't even have a special teams advantage.
In the past, you wanted to back Kyle Shanahan when he faced Sean McVay (starting 10-3 against the spread), but the Rams covered in four straight games until the disaster on Thursday Night Football a month ago when L.A. lost to the 49ers backups. The Rams will be focused and ready in this revenge spot.
The 49ers have topped 21 points just three times this year (against the Giants, Saints and that weird Rams game).
Since the start of last season, the Rams have 17 wins; against a -3 spread, they are 15-1-1 in those games.
Pick: Rams -3
