Jets-Bears Betting Preview: Will Windy Weather Derail Sam Darnold Again?

Oct 28, 2018 06:58 AM EDT

Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold (14).

Betting odds: New York Jets at Chicago Bears

  • Spread: Bears -8
  • Over/Under: 45
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: While 75% of spread tickets are taking Chicago, only 57% of dollars wagered are on the Bears. The lopsided public support pushed the Bears to eight-point favorites on Thursday (find live data here). — PJ Walsh

Weather report: Keep close tabs on the weather forecast in this one. As of Friday morning, swirling breezes of 14 mph are expected at kickoff.

According to our Bet Labs data, unders are 444-352-10 (55.8%) in NFL games played with winds of least 10 mph. — PJ Walsh

Trends to know: The Jets were blown out by 20 points by the Vikings at home in their previous game.

Since 2003, teams that lose by 20 points or more in their previous game and are listed as an underdog of a field goal or more in their next game are 112-82-3 against the spread (57.7%), including 6-0 ATS already this season. — Evan Abrams

Sam Darnold will be the 12th rookie quarterback to start in Soldier Field in the past 20 seasons. The previous 11 are 3-8 straight up and just 5-6 against the spread. Only four of them closed as a dog of a touchdown or more (Bruce Gradkowski, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck), and those teams went 0-4 SU and 2-2 ATS. — Abrams

Did you know? The Bears defense ranks No. 1 overall in defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Sam Darnold completed only 17-of-42 passes last week for 206 yards and three interceptions against the Vikings’ defense, which ranks 16th in that metric. — John Ewing

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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