The Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) host the Denver Broncos (12-3) in the final edition of NFL Thursday Night Football on December 25. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will broadcast on Prime Video.
The Broncos are 13.5-point favorites on the spread (Broncos -13.5); the game total is 36.5 points. The Broncos are -1000 favorites on the moneyline, while the Chiefs are +600 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Below, you can find our Broncos vs Chiefs picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread and three player props.
Broncos vs Chiefs Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Thursday Night Football Odds
- Broncos vs Chiefs Moneyline: Broncos -1000, Chiefs +600
- Broncos vs Chiefs Spread: Broncos -13.5, Chiefs +13.5
- Broncos vs Chiefs Total: 36.5
Broncos vs Chiefs odds via bet365
Broncos vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
Not many bettors are looking to back the Chiefs with their third-string quarterback (Chris Oladokun) under center — 73% of all tickets are backing the visiting Broncos tonight.
However, the spot dictates a play on Kansas City.
Over the entirety of BetLabs data, home underdogs of more than 7 points that were favored the week prior are 24-15-1 against the spread (ATS), covering at a 61.5% rate. Over the last five seasons, that rate has increased to a 69.2% rate over a 13-game sample size.
Furthermore, home underdogs playing inside of the division that are catching more than 7 points are 68-52-1 against the number (56.7%). Since the start of 2022, teams are 13-6 (68.4%) ATS in this spot.
With the Broncos throwing the ball at a much higher rate since the loss of JK Dobbins to injury, Bo Nix has brought a level of volatility to this offense.
The Chiefs defense will want to play spoiler as they make their final stand in a primetime spot. This game won’t be pretty, but the Chiefs will find a way to stay inside the number.
Pick: Chiefs +13.5 (-105)
Broncos vs Chiefs Prop Pick: Kareem Hunt
By Derek Carty
There may be some value on the rush attempts prop for Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt.
THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 5.27 rush attempts, and the oddsmakers are implying 7.07. The model believes there is a 62% chance he records fewer than 5.5 rush attempts.
If you can get the under at +120 or better, there is some great value here. This play is good down to at least -117.
Pick: Kareem Hunt Under 5.5 Rush Attempts (+120; bet to -117)
Broncos vs Chiefs Player Props: RJ Harvey
By Nick Galaida
Since JK Dobbins went down with a season-ending injury in Week 10, there has been little debate about who the top option for Denver’s ground game is.
Across the Broncos' last five games, RJ Harvey has received 67 of the 94 attempts that have gone to the running back position, including 16-of-20 attempts inside the red zone and 5-of-6 goal-line carries.
This past weekend, the Chiefs allowed Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears to combine for 154 rushing yards on 34 attempts (4.53 yards per carry).
Harvey should have plenty of running room against a Kansas City team that appears to be in full tank mode.
Pick: RJ Harvey Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Broncos vs Chiefs Player Props: Chris Oladokun
By Sean Koerner
Chris Oladokun is set to make his first career NFL start after Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew both suffered season-ending injuries.
Oladokun was a seventh-round pick by the Steelers back in 2022, and while we saw him drop back in relief last week 22 times, he’s also seen extensive action in the preseason over the last three seasons. As a preseason degenerate, I’ve seen most of his snaps over the years, and one thing he’s consistently flashed is rushing upside.
In 24 NFL dropbacks, he’s scrambled three times (12.5%) and averaged four yards per carry on those scrambles. In 99 preseason dropbacks, he's scrambled 10 times (10%) while averaging 8.3 yards per scramble. Obviously, that came against backups and softer defenses, but either way, he’s shown a willingness and ability to use his legs.
To put that into perspective, Oladokun's 10.5% scramble rate across 123 total regular-season and preseason dropbacks would rank fourth among qualified QBs this season, behind only Jayden Daniels, Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields. Oladokun doesn’t quite have the speed or burst of those QBs, but it’s important to note that he’s willing to take off if the situation calls for it.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid will likely want to lean on the run and not put too much on Oladokun as a passer, but 13.5-point home underdogs, we should still see a decent amount of dropbacks.
I have Oladokun projected for around 34 dropbacks, which opens the door for 2–3 scrambles, if not more. That becomes even more likely against a Broncos defense that has generated the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL. LT Josh Simmons is also done for the season, and his replacement, Esa Pole, has struggled, which could force Oladokun out of the pocket more often.
There’s a wide range of outcomes here. Oladokun could struggle early and get benched for Shane Buechele, or he could continue to take sacks instead of scrambling like we saw at times last week. But I think there’s enough sneaky upside to take a flier on the over here. With the rest of this game being very tricky to cap, this is the angle I feel best about.
I’m projecting Oladokun closer to 19–20 rushing yards, with around a 59% chance to clear 15.5. Since there is a wide range of outcomes, it also makes sense to take his alt overs — but the market has done a fairly good job of pricing them. 30+ yards (+320) at FanDuel seems like the best value when looking at his alt overs as I’m projecting that closer to +290.
Pick: Chris Oladokun Over 15.5 Rush Yds (-110)
