Patriots-Chiefs AFC Championship Spread Moves Off Key Number for the First Time

Patriots-Chiefs AFC Championship Spread Moves Off Key Number for the First Time article feature image
Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andy Reid.

  • The Patriots-Chiefs AFC Championship game (6:40 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS) had seen no spread movement up until Friday night.
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we've identified what has caused the line movement.

All week, the weather and over/under for the Patriots-Chiefs game has been the big story. First it was going to be wicked cold, now it’s expected to be in the mid to upper 20s. Hardly even coat weather.

The total went on a bit of a roller coaster ride thanks to the change in the forecast, but the spread has been on what you could call the world’s most boring roller coaster. If the spread were an EKG, the doc would be preparing to give some bad news.

Since the Chiefs opened at -3, they’ve remained there. The entire week. At every book that I can see.

Boring!

On Friday evening, the flatlined spread finally came to life at one book.

Shortly before 7 p.m. ET, one sportsbook did adjust the spread, moving the Chiefs from -3 to -3.5. Other books remain at -3, though the juice on Kansas City is up in the -120 range for the most part.

The Chiefs haven’t exactly been a popular pick this week, but their popularity has been on the rise. Approximately 72 hours ago, they were getting 53% of spread bets and 50% of the cash. Now, they’re at 56% and 54%, respectively. Not a huge rise, but considering how heavily bet this game is, it’s understandable that the line is trending towards Kansas City.

We’ve seen 24,000+ bets on this game already — about 4,000 more than the Rams-Saints game. By kickoff, I’m expecting somewhere between 70-100k. Expect both the spread and total to see some more movement as books begin seeing more late action.