NFL Betting Tip: A Profitable Over/Under Strategy for Week 2
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joe Flacco
- The Bears' and Broncos' totals went under in Week 1 and the teams have the lowest total (40.5) in Week 2.
- Using Bet Labs, we share a profitable approach to wagering on totals after both teams went under the previous week.
The Bears-Broncos total on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX) is 40.5 — the lowest over/under in Week 2. Oddsmakers expect a low-scoring game after each offense sputtered in Week 1.
Chicago failed to score a touchdown and kicked just one field goal for three points in its opener — tied for the fewest points scored in Week 1. Denver wasn’t much better, putting up 16 points against an Oakland unit that finished 30th in defensive DVOA in 2018.
As you’d imagine, the offensive struggles by the Bears and Broncos hurt over bettors to start the season. Each team went under its Week 1 total, and the public clearly hasn’t forgot the poor performances as more than 60% of tickets are on this Week 2 under.
But history has shown that overreacting to one bad offensive game could be costly.
Since 2003, the over is 478-435-12 (52.4%) in games when both teams went under the previous week according to Bet Labs. Oddsmakers know casual bettors tend to chase results, so if both teams went under in their last game the bookmakers will shade the total to the under anticipating public money.
The most profitable time to bet the over after teams went under is early in the season when we can take advantage of bettors putting too much emphasis on a small sample of player and team performances.
Since 2003, bettors following this strategy in Weeks 2-4 have gone 100-62-1 (61.7%). A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,354 following this system.
The sample size is not huge but that is an inherent problem with the 16-game NFL season. The results, though, have been consistent, returning a profit in 11 of the past 14 seasons.
In addition to Bears-Broncos, three other Sunday games are matches for this system.
Week 2 Matches
- Steelers vs. Seahawks over 46.5 (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Bengals vs. 49ers over 45 (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Packers vs. Vikings over 44 (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Broncos vs. Bears over 40.5 (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX)