NFL Betting Tip: The Optimal Strategy for Maximizing Super Bowl Futures Profit
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh
- The Baltimore Ravens have value to win Super Bowl 54 according to The Action Network's NFL simulations.
- Learn the optimal strategy for maximing profit when betting Super Bowl futures.
The NFL regular season is in the books. The road to Super Bowl 54 begins Saturday, meaning bettors are running out of time to place championship future wagers.
To help, The Action Network simulated the NFL playoffs 10,000 times using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule to determine the most likely champion:
The model and the betting market agree that the most likely Super Bowl winner is the Baltimore. Oddsmakers at PointsBet list Lamar Jackson & Co. as +210 favorites.
Odds as of Jan. 1 at 9 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
The implied probability of John Harbaugh’s team being crowned champs based on +210 odds is 32.3%. According to our simulations, the Ravens have a 35.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl 54 Betting Strategy: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have the best record (14-2) and point differential in football (+249). Baltimore is the only team that ranks in the top five in offensive and defensive DVOA. Sometimes the obvious answer is the correct answer.
While there is value based on our model betting the Ravens to win it all, bettors would be better off betting them game-to-game and rolling over their profits.
For example, last year the New England Patriots were +600 to win the Super Bowl before the playoffs began. A $100 bettor wagering on the Patriots would have $700 after New England beat the Rams, $600 from the bet plus the original $100 investment.
If that same $100 bettor had wagered on the Pats moneyline each game while rolling over the profits, he or she would have returned approximately $728.88.
A $28.88 difference might not seem like much, but that is free money and a savvy way to build your bankroll.
It will always be more profitable to bet a team game-to-game, with the added benefit of not having to place a wager in the next round if the matchup or odds are unfavorable.