NFL Odds: Favorites Are Perfect Against the Spread So Far On Sunday Afternoon, Covering First 7 Games
Pictured: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers. Pictures by Getty Images.
Every NFL Week 6 favorite from the 1 p.m. ET window covered their spread on Sunday, and sportsbooks got burned as a result.
Their worst loss came when the Kansas City Chiefs overcame a halftime deficit to beat the Washington Football Team — and cover a 6.5-point spread.
It required 21 unanswered points in the second half and a lot of sweating until the back half of the fourth quarter.
The Chiefs eventually won 31-13 despite their 13-10 halftime deficit.
But Kansas City had as low as a 39% chance to cover with 8:30 remaining in the third quarter, according to The Action Network’s model. They were up 17-13, but Washington was driving deep into their territory.
That WFT drive ended with a missed 42-yard field goal.
Bettors made out like bandits. Sportsbooks got absolutely hosed on this one.
About 97% of the total money at FanDuel, roughly 90% at BetMGM and about 87% at PointsBet were on the Chiefs to win by at least seven points.
The Green Bay Packers, too, gave bettors a lot of joy on Sunday.
About 90% of the money at BetMGM, 77% at FanDuel and 77% at PointsBet were on the Packers to beat the Chicago Bears by at least 5.5 points.
This one had a little sweat associated with it, too. After the Bears scored on a Justin Fields touchdown pass with 8:44 remaining in the game to make it 17-14 Packers, Green Bay had just a 23% chance to cover, according to The Action Network’s metrics.
Aaron Rodgers proceeded to go on a long touchdown drive to ice the game.
Bettors also locked up a lot of cash on the Minnesota Vikings — though this one was a close affair, too.
About 83% of the money at BetMGM, 79% of the money at PointsBet and 72% of the money at FanDuel was on the Vikings to win by at least three points against the Carolina Panthers.
That looked all but solidified after the Panthers were pinned inside their own 5-yard-line and facing a 4th-and-10 down 28-20 with under two minutes to go.
Because the Vikings are the Vikings, though, the Panthers converted that fourth down. Then, Carolina marched all the way down the field to score and notched a two-point conversion to tie the game.
The Vikings had a chance to end it in regulation, but their kicker missed a potential game winning 49-yard field goal to push the game to overtime.
Thankfully for the broader public, Minnesota proceeded to score a touchdown on their first possession in overtime to finally end this god-forsaken game.
As far as the blowouts from the 1 p.m. window go, bettors made out the best with the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams (-7.5) dismantled the New York Giants 38-11. According to The Action Network’s data, the Rams’ odds to cover hit 99% early in the third quarter and stayed that way until the final whistle.
The Rams spread had received about 90% of the total money at FanDuel, 84% of the action at BetMGM and roughly 82% of the money at PointsBet.
Another good one for the public was the Cincinnati Bengals at -3.5.
That game was such a blowout that Joe Burrow got pulled early in the fourth quarter.
The Action Network’s model gave Cincy’s spread a 99% chance of happening from the third quarter onwards.
About 73% of the total money at BetMGM, roughly 71% of the money at PointsBet and — curiously — just 45% of the money at FanDuel was on the Bengals spread.
One of the favorites — the Baltimore Ravens -3 — actually saw the public collectively fade them. So sportsbooks made money on this favorite covering.
The Ravens blew out the Los Angeles Chargers 34-6 after Chargers coach Brandon Staley made a few gutsy calls in key situations to go for it on fourth down that didn’t pan out.
The Action Network’s model gave Baltimore a 99% chance to cover from the fourth quarter and beyond.
Just 22% of the total money at FanDuel, 13% of the total money at BetMGM and 23% of the total money at PointsBet was on the Ravens to win this game by three points or more.
The last game of the Sunday 1 p.m. slate was a toilet bowl between the Colts (-11.5) and Texans, which Indianapolis won handily 31-3.
The Action Network’s model had the Colts at 95% to cover at the start of the fourth quarter.
Sportsbooks had varied handles on this game. FanDuel made out the worst, with 56% of the total money on the Colts to win by at least 12 points.
Meanwhile, BetMGM and PointsBet netted the best profit with this game. BetMGM saw just 21% of bettors on the Colts spread while PointsBet reported just 26% of the total money.
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