Our NFL Luck Rankings have proven to be a highly successful tool for betting NFL sides and totals.
In the three seasons since we introduced the Luck Rankings, games that met significant thresholds for sides or totals have gone 160-112-4 (58.8%) against closing lines, which are the hardest lines to beat!
This year, we introduced Version 3.0 of our Luck Rankings as a way to continue to improve the methodology, as well as to simplify the thresholds and give you even better luck metrics.
As part of that, we've introduced something called the "Luck Score." This single number will tell us whether a game has a significant luck factor.
If the Luck Score is 1.454 or higher, we'll consider that a luck-based side. In addition, associated with each Luck Score will be a letter grade and a Luck-Based Cover% (LBC%). Anything with a "D" and up is playable, with expected improved results as we go up the letter-grade scale (from D to A).
Unlucky teams meeting this 1.454 Luck Score and D-rated threshold or better are 162-113-7 against the closing spread since the start of 2018. That equates to a 58.9% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size of more than 270 games.
In Week 12, the unlucky teams went 1-1 ATS, moving luck-based sides to 19-14 (57.6%) ATS on the year. In these 33 games, the unlucky team has covered by an average of 2.7 points.
For Luck Totals, the criteria is as follows:
- Luck Overs: Luck Total of +1.5 or above
- Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1 or below
However, there are even stronger thresholds for Luck Totals, which we'll call "strong" Luck Overs or Unders:
- Strong Luck Overs: Luck Total of +2.0 or above
- Strong Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1.8 or below
Luck Totals went 1-0 last week, with the weak Luck Under going 1-0 to the under. Overall, that puts weak Luck Totals at 12-14 (46.2%) while strong Luck Totals stay 4-4 (50%) on the season.
All sides and strong total bets are 23-18 (56.1%), while all bets, including the weak totals, are 35-32 (52.2%).
Based on our Week 13 NFL Luck Rankings, there are two major luck-based sides and two luck totals.
NFL Luck Rankings – The Time is Now
Last week, I talked about how the Luck Rankings are performing almost exactly as predicted. This week, there are two things to address.
First, luck totals continue to crush, as expected, after the Week 8 to Week 9 inflection point. Weak luck unders, which were the rough spot early in the season, are 4-0 to the under since Week 9, lining up perfectly with the past inflection point on weak Luck Unders.
More interestingly, all luck totals, whether of the weak or strong variety, have gone 7-0 since Week 9.
Second, and more importantly, we have now also hit a major inflection point in luck-based sides.
As you can see from our preseason Luck Rankings update and primer, Week 13 marked a shortening of the Luck% threshold in our Version 2.0 methodology. With Version 3.0 we see the same inflection, not in Luck% threshold, but in the success of the results.
From Week 13 through the Super Bowl, but removing the last week of the regular season (as we always do because of its uniqueness), all luck-based sides graded D or better are 47-22-2 (68.1%) ATS. Even D-graded luck sides have performed well, going a crazy 13-3-1 ATS in that span (and clearly outperforming expectation). If we limit it to just the regular season, the unlucky teams in games that meet the Luck Score threshold are 40-18-2 (69%). If we limit it further to Weeks 13-16, that record becomes 36-14-1 (72%).
In other words, we're entering the heart of luck season.
With that said, let's get to the games.
