Stuckey: My Favorite Week 10 NFL Bets for Ravens-Bengals, More
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson
- Stuckey reveals his favorite Week 10 NFL picks, featuring bets for Ravens-Bengals and two more games.
Stuckey highlights his three favorite NFL picks for Week 10 below.
Let’s run through how he’s betting Ravens-Bengals, Bills-Browns and Rams-Steelers.
Odds as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Bengals +10 vs. Ravens
Last week was fun when my team (the Ravens) won and covered for us. But it’s money first, and we are going against Baltimore after that emotional win.
Yes, it’s a great situational spot for the Bengals, who are coming off a bye and seeking their first win of the season against a division rival. And with a new QB under center, I expect a spirited effort from the last winless team in the NFL.
The Bengals aren’t good by any stretch but they are better than what the market has been implying this season. Just take a look at some of their competitive losses (and covers) this season against winning teams:
- Lost by one at Seattle
- Lost by two at Buffalo
- Lost by six at Baltimore
Bottom line: This line simply came out too high. There’s a high risk of a flat spot for Baltimore after such an emotional win, which Cincinnati could take advantage of early against a potentially sleepy Ravens team.
As my colleague Matthew Freedman described in our official game preview, the Bengals’ horrid linebackers do scare me against Baltimore’s elite rushing attack (and tight ends), but anything 10 or above is too high to pass up on.
This is the second time Cincinnati will face the unique Baltimore offense, which can only work in the Bengals favor. We saw how much the Chargers benefited from seeing the Ravens earlier in the season in their playoff win last year.
Also, remember: Cincinnati was +11 at Baltimore just a few weeks ago and covered in Charm City.
Yes, we have a new QB under center, but I don’t think the drop-off is anywhere close to 6-7 points from what I saw of Ryan Finley in college. The Bengals will also have the benefit of two weeks to prepare and the element of surprise as the Ravens don’t really know what to expect with the rookie signal caller.
Lastly, the Ravens usually hold a significant special teams edge each week but Cincinnati’s special teams unit has been superb this season. Per Football Outsiders, the Bengals rank No. 1 in special teams, led by a dynamic kick return unit that the Ravens should know all about (Brandon Wilson returned the opening kick for a touchdown against Baltimore in their first meeting). I still give the nod to Baltimore’s special teams unit but this is not an overwhelming mismatch by any stretch as it has been in recent years.
Take the double digits with a desperate home dog off a bye in a divisional game against a rival that may come out sleep-walking for a series or two.
For you trend players: This isn’t a huge sample size, but it’s interesting to note that teams that beat the Patriots and then open as favorites of seven of more their next game are 0-8 ATS since 2003. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Browns -3 vs. Bills
This is my favorite buy-low/sell-high spot of the weekend.
Yes, the Bills are 6-2, but they’ve beat absolutely nobody: Jets, Giants, Dolphins, Bengals, Redskins and Titans. They have six wins with an almost impossibly low strength of victory of .176 for that many wins. In the AFC, only the Dolphins and Bengals have lower SOV’s and that’s because they’ve combined for exactly one win, which came over the lowly Jets.
The Bills pass defense has played at a high level — albeit against mostly poor quarterbacks — thanks to safeties who give up nothing deep and a solid group of corners, and I expect that to continue barring injuries.
However, the run defense is very vulnerable, which you saw the Eagles exploit a few weeks ago.
In a game that should feature windy conditions, I trust Nick Chubb and the Cleveland rushing attack much more than Buffalo. There aren’t many quarterbacks I trust less than Baker Mayfield right now — he’s been as bad as people are saying; just look at his horrid numbers when he’s not being pressure — but I’d still take him and his group of receivers over Josh Allen and the Bills.
When the Bills went to New England in windy conditions a few weeks ago, the game plan was to feed Chubb against a great pass defense and vulnerable run defense. And if not for some flukey turnovers, they may have pulled out a win. I think that’s the plan again on Sunday (with a few shots downfield) for a Cleveland squad that ranks second in the NFL at 5.2 yards per rush.
Baker Mayfield has the lowest passer rating in the NFL when not under pressure this season per @NextGenStats. He is the only QB with more INT than TD passes when not pressured. pic.twitter.com/OuFERsVDzm
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 5, 2019
Buy low on the Brownies to pick up a home win against a severely overrated Bills bunch that has six wins thanks to a cupcake schedule.
Also, keep your eye out for the impact of hidden yardage, especially in the punt game, as the Browns have the significantly better special teams.
Points may come at a premium in this one, so I actually threw the Browns moneyline in a parlay with the Colts moneyline, but will also be on the Browns -2.5/3. Anything at 3 or under is good in my book. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Rams-Steelers Under 43
Let’s keep this simple: I think the Steelers’ defensive front can get enough pressure on a consistent basis to stymie this Rams offense. And remember it’s a different caliber of defense on the back end since Minkah Fitzpatrick arrived in the Steel City.
Plus, the Rams most likely won’t have the services of Cooks, which really limits the explosiveness of their offense.
Speaking of limited explosiveness, that’s exactly how I’d describe the Pitt offense with Mason Rudolph at the helm. It’s a lot of running and plenty of short, easy passes that keep the clock bleeding.
I’m splitting the game under 44 (like it down to 43) and the first-half under 21.5 (like it down to 21). [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]