Freedman’s Favorite Week 4 NFL Prop Bets on DraftKings
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Allen
- Matthew Freedman highlights his two favorite Week 4 NFL prop bets available on DraftKings.
DraftKings is consistently one of the first sportsbooks to post NFL player props each week, releasing lines on Friday afternoon for the slate of Sunday games.
Lines for the Week 4 games have just been posted, and since the prop market can move quickly, I’m highlighting two bets I’m making immediately: Bills QB Josh Allen’s completions and Broncos RB Royce Freeman’s receiving yards.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200.
We’ll also highlight how our FantasyLabs Props Tool grades both props.
Josh Allen 20.5 Passing Completions
- Over 20.5: -112
- Under 20.5: -112
The Patriots are No. 1 with a 90.9 Pro Football Focus coverage grade, and they have held opposing quarterbacks to just 19 completions per game.
Against the subpar pass defenses of the Jets, Giants and Bengals, Allen has averaged just 22 completions per game.
I expect that No. 1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore will shadow wide receiver John Brown, so completions will be all the harder to come by for the Bills.
Allen has certainly matured as a passer since his rookie season, but in Week 16 last year, he was just 20-of-41 passing against the Pats.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Allen projected for 17.5 completions.
Pick: Under 20.5 (-112)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 9 (out of 10)
Royce Freeman 18.5 Receiving Yards
- Over 18.5: -112
- Under 18.5: -112
For a big-bodied back, Freeman is a competent receiver, but in the Broncos backfield, Phillip Lindsay has historically handled most of the pass-catching work.
Freeman has an average of 21.0 receiving yards per game this year, but that number is skewed by a big Week 2 performance in which he turned seven targets into 48 yards. In Weeks 1 and 3, he had just five and 10 yards receiving.
In fact, in 17 career games, he’s had more than 18.5 yards receiving just twice.
On top of that, Freeman (shoulder) has been limited in practice this week with an injury. He seems likely to play, but it’s possible that he could see fewer snaps than he otherwise might, especially after Lindsay’s big performance last week.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Freeman projected for 16.1 receiving yards.
Pick: Under 18.5 (-112)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Ratings: 9
To see the rest of the player props I’m betting for Week 4, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my prop card throughout the weekend.