I've played four sides for NFL Week 4, and I'm still pondering some others including the Saints, Vikings, and Giants.
Here are the games I previewed for this Sunday's slate: Panthers vs Patriots, Commanders vs Falcons, Jaguars vs 49ers, and Bears vs Raiders.
You can also find my favorite anytime touchdown parlay lottery ticket featuring KaVontae Turpin and Matthew Golden.
Let's get into my NFL Week 4 picks and predictions for Sunday, September 28.
Editor's Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These NFL picks have value as straight bets.
NFL Week 4 Picks & Predictions
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Patriots vs Panthers
The Panthers put together an impressive 30-0 victory over the Falcons last week, but that had more to do with Atlanta shooting itself in the foot all game and a horrendous Michael Penix performance. Carolina still only averaged 4.1 yards per play and finished with just 224 total yards of offense.
This is still a very poor offense that remains undermanned at the wide receiver position and is down two key starters along the interior offensive line. That's extremely problematic against the elite New England front, spearheaded by Christian Barmore and Milton Williams, whose interior pressure could cause major issues for the vertically challenged Bryce Young.
It's also hard to see Carolina getting anything going on the ground against a Patriots stop unit that ranks in the top-10 in both Rush Success Rate and Rush EPA. I should also note that Chubba Hubbard is dealing with a minor injury as well.
So far, the problem for the Patriots has been their coverage on the back end. The linebackers are really poor in that department, but I'm not sure the Panthers are capable of exploiting that deficiency, especially without tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders. The secondary has also struggled mightily, ranking in the bottom three in both Pass Success Rate and Pass EPA; however, the return of stud cornerback Christian Gonzalez should provide an immediate boost.
While the Panthers had a somewhat misleading final, the Patriots lost a game they likely would have won nine times out of ten. Despite five turnovers, including two right at the goal line, they still had a chance at the end to beat the Steelers. That naturally sets up a nice buy-low/sell-high spot here to back the home Patriots and their much more trustworthy offense.
If we remove turnovers and garbage time, the Patriots offense ranks 7th in EPA per Play and 12th in Success Rate. Meanwhile, the Panthers rank 28th and 30th, respectively. New England has consistently moved the ball all season, albeit against porous defenses, but that's exactly what they'll face again on Sunday.
The most glaring issue on offense has been the new offensive line (28th pass block win rate) with two rookies on the left side, but the Panthers are incapable of generating pressure (28th pass block win rate).
Lastly, the entire Patriots operation has looked sloppy and out of sorts through three games, but that doesn't surprise me too much, given the brand new staff and roster that dealt with as much turnover as any this past offseason. It should continue to improve with each passing week, and this looks like a great opponent to face off against due to numerous matchup advantages.
Trending: Underdogs coming off a shutout win have gone just 15-26-2 (36.6%) ATS since 2003.
Pick: Patriots -5.5 (-110)
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Commanders vs Falcons
This was the first bet I placed early in the week, given all the injury concerns for Washington following last week.
Many of those concerns did come to fruition, as the Commanders will have to make do without quarterback Jayden Daniels and two of their top three receivers, Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown, in addition to a less-than-100 % backfield.
The receiver injuries are especially noteworthy in this particular matchup. The Falcons will be without their number one corner, A.J. Terrell. That should make life much easier for the Atlanta defense, which looks vastly improved due to some of the rookie talent infusion.
Billy Bowman and Xavier Watts have played very well on the back end, while some of their new additions up front have finally helped provide Atlanta with a semblance of pressure on opposing quarterbacks (even accounting for a fairly high blitz rate).
Washington also has injuries in the secondary of a defense I'm not very fond of, outside of the linebacker position. So far, from what I've seen, Marshon Lattimore looks like his best days are behind him, which really lowers the ceiling of this stop unit.
Michael Penix did have an absolutely nightmare game in Carolina. There was almost nothing positive on tape, but I still have high hopes for him and this offense, which is loaded across the board (and now healthy), with the exception of right tackle, which Washington isn't as capable as most teams of fully exploiting with its below average pass-block win rate despite facing the Giants (without Andrew Thomas) and Raiders (who are a complete mess) in two of their three games.
I'm willing to write off the Penix performance as an anomaly for now. And while Mariota has put up impressive numbers in three games for this offense over the past two seasons, he did so against the following defenses:
- Raiders
- Panthers
- Cowboys
Not exactly a murderer's row. Plus, he'll have to work with an offense that's missing a few key playmakers, with McLaurin being the most impactful absence.
Ultimately, I'm buying low on the Falcons after their disastrous performance, while selling the Commanders after taking care of business (with lots of special teams help) in an ideal spot where they had extra rest against a Raiders team coming across the country on short rest.
Trending: Underdogs coming off a shutout loss have gone 46-29-3 (61.3%) since 2005. Over that same span, underdogs after a 30-plus point loss have gone 115-77-8 ATS (59.9%), which also applies to the Saints and Bengals this weekend.
Pick: Falcons +3 (-120)
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Jaguars vs 49ers
I had to take the hook here with all of the injury uncertainty surrounding the 49ers, who have raced out to a 3-0 start by a total margin of 10 points. Each one of those games easily could've gone the other way. It's also worth noting that the 49ers have the Rams on deck on Thursday. Maybe they are peaking ahead a bit, but more importantly, they may handle some of their injuries more cautiously with that huge divisional showdown upcoming on a short week.
It does appear that Brock Purdy will start under center, but he certainly might still be dealing with lingering effects of his toe injury. He may not be able to drive on the ball as effectively, and he may have to shake off some early rust.
Additionally, George Kittle remains on IR, while San Francisco also has injuries at wide receiver and along the offensive line, where it could be down to a third-string guard due to injuries to both Ben Bartch (IR) and Connor Colby (questionable). Plus, that offensive line has not looked the part this season, ranking 21st in Run Block Win Rate and 29th in Pass Block Win Rate.
I've really liked what I have seen from this Jaguars defense so far this season. They are playing much more suitable coverages on the back end for their personnel under new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, and the front seven remains extremely underrated with a strong linebacker room and a pair of elite edge rushers.
We know everything starts with the ground game for a Kyle Shanahan offense. Well, through three weeks, Jacksonville has held opponents to a league-best 29.6% Rush Success Rate. Yes, it has faced three weak offensive lines (Carolina, Cincy, Houston), but that's still a very promising signal.
The one primary weakness on the defense to date has been outside corner Jarrian Jones. He's much better suited for the nickel spot, but was forced to move outside following the offseason addition of Jourdan Lewis. However, Travis Hunter has started to take all of those snaps and has held up reasonably well over the past two weeks.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars offensive line ranks in the top five in both of those aforementioned block win rate categories, thanks in large part to the schematic changes Liam Coen has implemented in his first season as head coach in Duval County. If Jacksonville can reduce the drops (it has a league-high 13 through three weeks), this offense is primed for takeoff.
Speaking of which, the 49ers would have lost last week if not for a wide-open Cardinals drop, while the Jaguars had one that would have sealed a victory in Cincinnati. That's how close these teams are to flipping their records in similarly easy schedules to start the season.
Plus, it's not like this 49ers defense will be operating at full strength. The loss of Nick Bosa is massive. Not only will his elite pass-rushing prowess be missed, but the trickle-down effects can't be overstated with how much attention he usually draws on a weekly basis.
San Francisco also might be without starting cornerback Renardo Green in an already depth-compromised room, which may force Darrell Luter Jr. into his first career start.
Lastly, Jacksonville should hold a special teams edge, which could swing what I believe profiles as a lower-scoring game (do lean under). Just like last year, the 49ers have faced major issues on special teams, particularly with the new kickoff rule, which has resulted in the worst starting field position in the league against their opponents.
Trending: Kyle Shanahan, who can be a bit too conservative at times, owns just a 20-26-1 (43.5%) ATS record as a home favorite.
Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-115)
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Bears vs Raiders
I'm buying low on the Raiders after a blowout loss in Washington in a nightmare situational spot that I mentioned above. There was real optimism surrounding Las Vegas coming into the season, but some of that has dwindled after a 1-2 start with a pair of double-digit losses following an impressive road win to open the season.
So, what has happened? Well, the defense hasn't looked great, but that's not really a surprise, given the lack of talent across the board, especially in the secondary. The main culprit has been the extremely poor offensive line play, which ranks dead last in the NFL in Run Block Win Rate, which has led to a putrid 29.0% Rush Success Rate (only the Texans rank lower).
The Raiders finished dead last in that category last season, but were still better than 2025 at 33%. That was supposed to change this season with the addition of Ashton Jeanty, but he just has no room to operate.
I'm just not sure what they are doing from a personnel perspective by not playing Jackson Powers-Johnson at center and moving Jordan Meredith to guard in place of Alex Cappa. Dylan Parham and DJ Glaze have also had disappointing starts to the season, as left tackle Kolton Miller has been the only reliable piece up front.
Fortunately, things can't get much worse, and the Bears have one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL (30th in PBWR and 22nd in RSWR) and will be without Grady Jarrett on Sunday. Jeanty may actually find some running room against the easiest test so far this season for the offensive line.
The Bears are also extremely thin in the back seven. Linebacker TJ Edwards and All-Pro cornerback Jaylon Johnson remain out, while stud nickel Kyler Gordon looks iffy at best. Geno Smith should have plenty of time to find his plethora of weapons downfield against a very vulnerable coverage corps. The Bears did hold up last week, but they also caught a break when Ceedee Lamb left the game with an injury early on.
Additionally, the Bears are also dealing with injuries on the offensive side of the ball with Darnell Wright, Coloston Loveland and D'Andre Swift all listed as questionable. I love Ben Johnson and think this offense has real potential as the season progresses, but it's going to take time. There will be growing pains. It looked great last week, but that came against a Dallas defense in absolute shambles.
While the Raiders defense isn't anything to write home about, they have held up very well against the run (7th in Success Rate) and always stress taking away the explosive passing play under defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, who I think is very underrated. Can Caleb Williams methodically move the ball down the field through the air? I'm not sure he's there just yet.
Plus, while the Bears have major injury concerns, the Raiders come into this Week 4 matchup relatively healthy, except tight end Michael Mayer, who will not play due to a concussion. Give me the Raiders in a buy-low spot against the beat-up Bears.
Trending: Following a losing streak of two or more games, Pete Carroll has gone 22-5-1 ATS (81.5%), covering by 6.5 points per game. Among 157 head coaches in our Action Labs database since 2003, he is the most profitable head coach by a wide margin in this spot.
Pick: Raiders -1 (-105)
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Anytime Touchdown Parlay
KaVontae Turpin Anytime TD + Matthew Golden Anytime TD
There's no CeeDee Lamb, who is out with an injury, so who can potentially take those targets for Dallas, even in garbage time? I think it's KaVontae Turpin, as the Cowboys could be playing from behind with a passing game script.
The Cowboys are already getting him more involved on the offensive side of the ball. He's probably going to play over half the snaps on offense and get a lot of opportunities. For this parlay, I'm actually going to stay in that game and go with Green Bay's Matthew Golden.
I don't know how the Packers manage to find themselves every year with all their receivers injured. Golden is essentially a full-time receiver now, right along with Romeo Doubs, with Golden as their number two. And he was one of the three Packers to lead the team in routes run in the red zone last week. So he will not just be the deep ball guy.
This is a nice, juicy-money anytime touchdown parlay.
