For a few years now, I’ve been trying to remind people that Purdy has more rushing upside than I think the market gives him credit for. He has incredible burst. His 1.55-second 10-yard split is elite and 90th+ percentile among QBs. He tends to play within structure and usually uses that burst to escape pressure and buy time rather than immediately take off and run. It’s a huge reason why his 9.2% pressure-to-sack rate was the lowest among all qualified QBs last season. He’s one of, if not the toughest QB in the league to sack. However, Purdy has mentioned that he wants to use his legs a bit more this season to keep the chains moving, so I think this is a sneaky Week 1 market to invest in. There are also several factors that could elevate his scramble rate tonight. The Rams should be able to generate even more pressure with Myles Garrett now on the team, which could force Purdy out of the pocket at a higher rate. More pressure isn’t necessarily a bad thing for this prop given how good Purdy is at avoiding sacks and extending plays. The 49ers also have a QB sneak play that tends to pick up 2-3 yards at a time. They were a bit more cautious using it with Purdy last season due to his toe injury, but we could see 1-2 of those tonight. Those are valuable hidden yards when we only need 18. There are some game-script factors working in our favor as well. As 3.5-point underdogs, there’s a lower chance Purdy is taking kneels at the end of the game for negative yardage. If the 49ers are playing from behind, that should also increase his dropback volume and create more potential scramble opportunities. I have Purdy closer to a 58% chance to clear 17.5 rushing yards, but this is one of those Week 1 props where I think he may have even more upside than I’m accounting for in my raw projections given his stated intention to run more. Brock Purdy Over 17.5 Rushing Yards is my prop of the game.

There is a value opportunity on Brock Purdy's interceptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 0.74 interceptions, while sportsbooks imply 0.96. The model believes there is a 61% chance he records fewer than 0.5 interceptions, so there is some value on the under at +135. This play is good down to at least -111. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz