Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
Here are the NFL Week 13 picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 13 Picks & Predictions
49ers vs Browns Over/Under Prediction
I'm running it back with an under bet on a Browns game.
Shedeur Sanders wasn't terrible in his first NFL start against the Raiders, going 11-for-20 for 209 yards and one touchdown and one interception. That said, the Browns finished with a 26% success rate on offense, which is terrible. Outside of two explosive plays, Sanders was 9-for-18 for 91 yards.
The Browns defense, however, was awesome. They recorded 10 sacks with Myles Garrett leading the charge and en route to the sacks record.
Cleveland's defense is even better when playing at home, and this is a good matchup for them against a 49ers offense that wants to attack the middle of the field (where the Browns D excels).
The 49ers defense is undoubtedly poor, but the Browns offense is 32nd in DVOA. The Browns run more 21 personnel than any team in the NFL; the 49ers are top five in EPA per play defending that.
Of course, San Francisco plays on MNF so this is also a short week for them.
Browns games have totals of 33, 23, 38, 32, 37 and 34 this season. Since the start of last season in non-Jameis Winston starts, the Browns average 15 PPG in 21 games.
Picks: Under 42.5 (-112)
Broncos vs Commanders Over/Under Pick
Both the Broncos and Commanders are coming off byes for this primetime Sunday Night Football game.
That's notable because teams coming off a bye with a total over 40 are 29-17-1 (63%) to the under. Non-Thursday primetime unders since 2019 are 146-93-4 (61%), including 60% this year.
The Commanders offense is obviously struggling without Jayden Daniels; they are bottom 10 over the last six weeks by DVOA both rushing and passing. Now they have to face an elite Broncos defense that is top four against both the run and pass. Also dealing with injuries, it's hard to see the Commanders having much of a shot.
Backing the Commanders defense seems scary, but you just have to think of it as a fade of Bo Nix.
The Broncos have a 20% success rate on their first two drives (the scripted stuff!), which is last in the NFL.
Denver is 8-3 to the under this season, tied for the best mark in the NFL. Broncos games average 40.9 PPG this season, with totals of 43, 41, 38, 33, 32, 31, 24 and 17.
Washington has struggled against teams that rank in the top 10 of Offensive DVOA (36.2 PPG allowed in five games), but otherwise it has allowed just 19.2 PPG.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-104; FanDuel)
Anderson's Early NFL Week 13 Bets
- 49ers-Browns Under 42.5 (-112; BetRivers)
- Broncos-Commanders Under 43.5 (-104; FanDuel)
