NFL Week 12 wraps up with the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.
The 49ers enter MNF coming off a win over the rival Cardinals; San Francisco has alternated wins and losses since Week 4 and sit in third place in the NFC West. The Panthers, meanwhile, are eyeing first place in the NFC South with the Buccaneers floundering of late.
- For more Monday Night Football coverage, check out our Panthers vs 49ers preview, which includes six picks for MNF.
Tonight, I'm targeting 49ers QB Brock Purdy in the prop market as I believe there's an edge on his rushing yards prop. Find my over/under prop bet for Purdy below.
NFL Prop Bet: Brock Purdy Over/Under Prediction
Earlier this morning I wasn’t seeing much value on the board tonight's Monday Night Football game. The market looked sharp, so I moved on to my Week 13 projections assuming I would sit out Panthers-49ers.
Almost all the action has been on Brock Purdy to go over on his rushing yards prop, which pushed the line from 7.5 to 10.5. That is a massive move for a QB rush prop. I agreed with the opening number and I think the inflation gives us a good chance to hit the under.
I’ve been saying since early 2023 that Purdy had more rushing upside than people realized. He has great short-area speed and I even said he could offer Mahomes-like rushing upside — and he has.
He can rip off big runs when he wants, so this prop always comes with risk. He can erase it with one scramble, but I think this is the right spot to fade him.
Purdy returned from a toe injury last week and I wasn’t expecting him to run much. He didn’t.
His only carry was a broken play where Brian Robinson Jr. wasn’t on the same page and Purdy basically sat down because he saw 300-pound Walter Nolen charging at him. Purdy looked like a man who had zero interest in taking off to run when that play broke down.
Purdy should be closer to 100% tonight, so I expect he will run if he has to, but he may not have to.
The Panthers have the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL, so Purdy should have a clean pocket and be able to stay in rhythm instead of taking off. They also do a good job limiting QB rushing in general.
My colleague Nick Giffen noted the Panthers have the fourth-lowest scramble rate over expected. They’ve also allowed the fifth-lowest yards per scramble at 6.1 yards. They’ve kept good running QBs in check: Drake Maye (3/11/1), Josh Allen (3/7/2), Justin Fields (4/22/0).
I have Purdy projected for 1-2 scrambles tonight. If he gets both he might sneak over, but there’s also a real chance those extra yards get wiped out by kneel downs (the 49ers are 7.5-point favorites).
Mac Jones was the QB sneak guy in this offense, not Purdy. They didn’t use Purdy that way last week and they may want to protect him given the recent injury.
I have his median closer to 7.5, which was the opener. My sim has about a 10% chance he finishes in the 8-10 yard range. That gives me roughly a 60% chance he stays under 10.5.
Pick: Brock Purdy Under 10.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
