The Carolina Panthers (6-5) and San Francisco 49ers (7-4) meet on Monday Night Football on Nov. 24. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. ET from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The 49ers are favored by 7.5 points on the spread over the Panthers (49ers -7.5; -108); the game total is 49.5 points (-112o / -108u). The 49ers are -410 moneyline favorites and the Panthers are +320 underdogs.
Let's get into my Monday Night Football preview and Panthers vs. 49ers prediction.
Panthers vs 49ers Prediction
- Panthers vs 49ers pick: Panthers +7 or better
My Panthers vs 49ers best bet is the Panthers to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Panthers vs 49ers Odds
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -112 | 49.5 -112o / -108u | +320 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -108 | 49.5 -112o / -108u | -410 |
Panthers vs 49ers Monday Night Football Preview
If the season ended today, the 49ers would enter the NFL playoffs as the NFC's No. 7 seed and head to Philadelphia on wild-card weekend.
Meanwhile, the Panthers currently sit as the No. 9 seed but can take the division lead and jump all the way to the No. 4 seed with a victory due to the Buccaneers' recent slide. In a crowded NFC playoff race, every game is extra critical for both for the remainder of the season.
San Francisco's offense is trending way up with better overall health. Since Week 7, it ranks No. 3 in EPA per Play and is one of only two offenses (along with the Rams) to have a success rate north of 50% over that span.
The 49ers should have no issues moving the ball against Carolina's defense in this particular matchup, especially with the Panthers dealing with injuries at linebacker — a position you don't want to be shorthanded at against the 49ers.
The Panthers also run a high rate of zone (you'll see plenty of Cover 3 looks under defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero), which Brock Purdy has historically carved up. It certainly doesn't hurt that Purdy won't have to deal with any real pressure against a Carolina stop unit that lacks juice in that department.
While all signs continue to point up when it comes to Kyle Shanahan's offense, the opposite is true for Robert Saleh's defense, which continues to be hit as hard by the injury bug as any unit in the league.
Coming into the season, the 49ers defense had major question marks after a number of key offseason departures. In order to have a successful season on this side of the ball, they needed to their stars to live up to their full potential and some of the rookies to hit right away.
Unfortunately, they lost their two most impactful stars to injury in Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. They've also since seen a number of other contributors along the defensive line go down with injuries — and they will be without new starting linebacker Tatum Bethune (who took over for Warner) tonight.
The loss of Bosa has particularly hit hard — the 49ers rank dead last in pressure rate (where the Panthers usually reside) since losing their star defensive end, who not only can dominate a game on his own up front, but also commands so much attention from opposing offenses when healthy, which frees up others who now don't enjoy that same luxury.
The numbers back up this story.
While the 49ers have had a top-three offense since Week 7, the defense is on the opposite end of the spectrum. Over that stretch, they rank 30th in both Success Rate and EPA per Play — ahead of only the historically bad Bengals defense and a Commanders unit that has also been decimated by injuries.
In the 49ers' most recent game, Jacoby Brissett (with a shorthanded offensive line and skill-position group) set an NFL record with 47 completions with over 450 yards through the air. Arizona was ultimately done in by turnovers and special teams mistakes, but had no issues moving the ball in a game it outgained the 49ers 488-281.
And in the few games prior to that road victory, we saw the Texans offense control the ball for over 41 minutes while putting up 475 total yards in their best offensive output of the entire season.
Right now, the 49ers have a top-five offense and a bottom-five defense; it's not easy to consistently win by significant margin in the NFL when you can't get stops.
Can the Panthers offense take advantage?
I believe so — assuming Bryce Young doesn't have any lingering issues with his ankle, which I'm not overly concerned about after his practice statuses last week. He also returned to the game after leaving last week to lead Carolina to a road win in Atlanta in one of his best games as a pro.
The extra day doesn't hurt here with Young's health (and the travel out to the West Coast). Carolina is a maddeningly inconsistent team, which is why it has a -42 point differential despite a 6-5 overall record.
Young has also had his struggles on the road and against zone (which he'll see plenty of against Saleh), but he will have clean pockets to operate from all night and should get help from his run game that can also chew up clock for the road underdog.
Panthers vs 49ers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Can the Panthers get blown out here? Absolutely.
Five of Carolina's six losses have come by double digits, including a head-scratching one against the Saints a few weeks ago. If the bad Bryce Young shows up, Carolina is in trouble since it's difficult to envision its defense leading the way to a win or cover on the road against this 49ers offense.
However, since I project this spread closer to 6, I like the Panthers at the key number of 7 or better against a defense that simply doesn't have the personnel at the moment to slow down any functional NFL offense. The backdoor could also be wide open against this shorthanded 49ers defense if needed late.
While the Panthers have had their road woes over the past two seasons, they have won three straight away from home against the Jets, Falcons and Packers. Carolina should also enjoy a special teams advantage and a head coach in Dave Canales who seemingly does all of the little things right in terms of game management each week to give his team some hidden edge.
Pick: Panthers +7 or better
Spread
I like the Panthers against the spread at +7 or better.
Moneyline
I have no play for either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
I lean over on the game total, but the spread is my bet for this game.
