NFL Week 16 opens with an NFC West rivalry matchup on Thursday Night Football as the Los Angeles Rams take on the Seattle Seahawks.
That's where I begin my Week 16 picks, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate, including Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
NFL Week 16 Odds & Picks
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 16 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football |
Thursday Night Football
Rams vs Seahawks
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 42 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 42 -110o / -110u | -125 |
The last three weeks have been a bit troubling for the Rams' defense. They allowed 31 points in a loss to the Panthers, 34 in a win over the Lions and a whole bunch of rushing yards against a Buccaneers team that lost Baker Mayfield to injury early on. The team still sits inside the top five in DVOA against the pass and run, but it's not as if this recent trend was due simply to injuries on defense — nor a tough schedule.
The Rams will meet a Seahawks offense that had some issues last week against the Colts in a win, but has still been one of the best in the league through the air. I don't know about you, but I certainly like Seattle to hang some points if Jared Goff was able to carve up this secondary last week with little help from his backfield.
Seattle should continue to cook through the air against a defense that has allowed a generous 6.6 yards per attempt, and on defense, it can rely on the top unit by DVOA, which will get a bit of help with Davante Adams still missing in action.
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Passes
Bengals vs Dolphins
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
You just have to love this time of year, where we're forced to speculate on a quarterback we've never seen at this level. Quinn Ewers had a great showing in Miami's final preseason game, going 7-for-8 for 66 yards, and overall, he did a good job after a 5-for-18 showing in his debut, throwing two touchdowns to no interceptions.
He also looked efficient in a quick stint against the Browns in Week 7, but was sacked twice — a common theme beginning in the preseason.
The Bengals' pass rush hasn't been great this year, and they rank just 18th in pressure rate. The tough news is that Miami's line grades out fourth-worst in pass protection according to Pro Football Focus, but at least it looks like the starters will be playing.
So, can Ewers do it? I don't really think so behind this line, especially with a consistent history of taking sacks. It sounds funny to say, given we're working with a sample size that's probably like seven drives, but holding the football is a common issue with rookie passers at any rate.
The Bengals still have Joe Burrow, even if their season is over, and Miami's defense is bad — and now missing key names due to injury. I'm not going to play this one or even shout the Bengals as a lean, but I suppose that's where I'd go.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Packers vs Bears
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
The Bears were gifted a game against the Browns last week amidst their quest to lock up the NFC North, but now a huge one awaits against a very game Packers team, which just went to war with the Denver Broncos' defense in a tight loss on the road last week.
We pretty much know what we're getting at this point from Chicago; there will be some moments of brilliance in the secondary, but overall, this defense is firmly below average. They've given up the third-most yards per carry in the league, and they've also ranked fourth-worst in completion percentage against the deep ball, which has compounded their issues further.
Now, Chicago's offense is what's gotten it here, and Green Bay is dealing with some huge injuries up front. Micah Parsons is on injured reserve, and starting defensive end Kingsley Enagbare also looks unlikely to play. That will take some bite out of an already middling run defense, and it should also mean a Packers team that ranks just 16th in pressure rate has a slim chance of moving up the ranks.
With a laundry list of impact players on the offensive line on the injury report, along with Josh Jacobs and Christian Watson, Chicago is certainly looking like the play here. Watch closely for the status of Zach Tom as well — he's been banged up for weeks, but his back and knee injuries may keep him out of this one. Even with Jayden Reed returning, I don't think the offense can muster up enough to cover up the expected shortcomings on defense.
Verdict: Lean Bears ML
Bills vs Browns
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -575 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +425 |
The Bills haven't locked up a playoff spot yet, but even a loss here would still leave them a 99% probability of making it. You'd certainly have to think Buffalo exercises some caution with its injured players as a result, such as tackle Dion Dawkins and tight end Dalton Kincaid, who both haven't practiced this week, and the same probably goes for kicker Matt Prater if you care to weigh that injury.
I'm just trying to make Buffalo look a little human in this one; we're probably not going to see great football either way, however. Cleveland is gearing up to hold even more players out with the season lost, and Shedeur Sanders is ready to make another start. He had an ugly game last week against a poor Bears secondary, and this matchup will be exponentially harder. Cleveland's rushing offense continues to be nonexistent, so even against a bad run defense, I still have a hard time believing in the home dogs.
Verdict: Lean Bills -10.5
Chargers vs Cowboys
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
The Cowboys are hanging on for dear life in the playoff race, and a loss here all but eliminates them from contention. The Chargers are still hopeful to take control of the AFC West, and a hard-fought, cagey win over the Chiefs last week has them on a three-game winning streak.
Now, the Chargers haven't exactly had the easiest schedule, but last week this defense stood up an elite offense by the metrics. They limited the Chiefs to just 2.3 yards per carry, and while Patrick Mahomes averaged 6.8 yards per attempt he was intercepted once and sacked five times before his late injury.
That was impressive, but the offense's day certainly wasn't when you consider how Kansas City has looked defensively. I suppose Justin Herbert didn't play terribly, but he was sacked four times and L.A. averaged just 3.2 yards per rush.
We know Dallas doesn't offer much in terms of defense, but we do know their offense is one of the best around which will put the onus on L.A. to score. With Keenan Allen injured and countless big names on defense hurt from Khalil Mack and R.J. Mickens to Elijah Molden and Bud Dupree, Dallas could find enough scoring here to win.
It's done so against better defenses, and I just generally do not like betting on this team in a game where its shaky defense is under the spotlight.
Verdict: Lean Cowboys -2
Chiefs vs Titans
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
I probably won't be watching Gardner Minshew against Cam Ward in a meaningless game for both sides, and with Rashee Rice leading a list of several receivers and offensive tackles on the injury report, it may be even uglier than anticipated. The Titans defense has looked lifeless, even giving up 29 points to the Browns a couple of weeks ago, and Kansas City has been a solid offense by the numbers which has been victimized by third down conversions, a tough schedule and overall bad luck.
This team has stopped the run well this year, and while the secondary has been a huge concern (and may be missing some starters) I still have a hard time believing in Ward here. He's coming off one of his better games of the year, but without a run game it should be hard to out-score the Chiefs.
Falcons vs Cardinals
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -125 | 48 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +105 | 48 -110o / -110u | +135 |
My love affair with the Cardinals came to an end a couple of weeks ago when they finally cracked against the LA Rams, and their very limited offense had no hope last week against a menacing Texans defense. Now, though? Arizona can — you know what, it can't. It can't run, and if you can't run you can't get through the Falcons. Their secondary may not be at the same level as L.A.'s or Houston's, but it's still pretty good, and that should spell the end for Jacoby Brissett and company.
Arizona's secondary has been pretty solid aside from the last two weeks, however, which is again understandable with some better teams on the schedule and a few injuries. Well, Budda Baker looks like he'll play at the very least, but there are several big names missing from the offensive line. It's just all working against the Cardinals once again.
Verdict: Lean Falcons -3
Raiders vs Texans
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | +625 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | -950 |
It looks like Geno Smith will make his return to the field for Las Vegas, and he couldn't have picked a worse week. Even with a spot in the playoffs all but secured, Houston doesn't seem to be slowing down for anything — and has a relative clean bill of health as well with the exception being Derek Stingley, Jr. in the secondary.
His sporadic absences haven't taken any sting out of this defense, and Smith has done very little with this young Raiders offense when he's been on the field. I'm not very concerned about that aspect, but is it possible that Houston's offense hits a slight hiccup here with the Raiders holding some good offenses at bay in recent weeks. It hasn't meant much without any offense, so the best way to attack this one could be the total.
Verdict: Lean Under 38
Steelers vs Lions
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | -320 |
Am I the only one who finds this total crazy? I know, the Lions have had no issues scoring 35-40 points, but Pittsburgh has stood tall against the pass this season and hasn't been run on all that much despite middling performances.
I don't know if Detroit will go wild offensively, even at home, with a whole bunch of impact lineman on the injury report — namely Taylor Decker. Defensively they may be down as many as three members of the secondary, but I suppose my worry here is that the Steelers' offense won't be able to pace with this number. They've played to the Under in five of the last seven, and even against a weakening run defense I don't see explosive plays coming from Pittsburgh.
Verdict: Lean Under 52
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NFL Week 16 Picks
Eagles vs Commanders
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
The Commanders' weak secondary stood tall against a somewhat competent Giants offense which returned Jaxson Dart, and while the offense failed to move the ball with consistency they hit on countless big passing plays against New York. That's unlikely to happen again with the Eagles ranking third in completion percentage against the deep ball, and while they do have a big hole on defense against the run it's not as if Washington has been able to run the ball with much success this year.
I'm not the biggest fan of the Eagles' offense, even in a soft matchup like this, and I think you have to take a look at the Under if you're going to bet this one. Philly should have no issue with running the ball for the majority of the game if the Commanders' offense flops like we expect, but even against a somewhat weak rushing defense you can't expect explosiveness from Philly based on what we've seen all year out of this line and Saquon Barkley. Even last week against the Raiders he averaged just 3.5 yards on 22 carries.
Verdict: Bet Under 44.5
Jets vs Saints
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -105 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -115 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
The Jets had actually covered in four of five games prior to their disastrous loss to the Dolphins in Week 12, and after the secondary opened its arms to Trevor Lawrence last week it's hard to remember the good times. Well, the offense may have only scored 30 points in the last two weeks, but Brady Cook hasn't looked all that overmatched and he's still got a great ground game to lean on. It should be far easier to get going against the ninth-worst secondary by DVOA, and while the Saints' run defense is a potential hang-up here I don't think it matters much with what we've seen out of their offense.
New York's had an above-average run defense for most of the year, and while its secondary has been abysmal it will play against Tyler Shough here. He actually hasn't looked too bad in recent weeks, but he may be missing two of his top three receivers here and his starting right guard. This one's going to be ugly, so why not take the points?
Verdict: Bet Jets +5.5
Vikings vs Giants
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
J.J. McCarthy did his job last week, torching one of the worst secondaries in football for a big 34-26 win over Dallas, and now he will draw the fourth-worst defense by DVOA and one which has ranked last against the run.
That should mean everything for Minnesota, which ranks 12th in rushing average, and helping matters more is the fact that New York ranks just 19th in pressure rate and may not have Kayvon Thibodeaux for this game to boot.
The Giants' offense is somewhat potent, especially now that Jaxson Dart is back, and Minnesota has certainly had issues against the run. This could wind up featuring more offense than expected. The Giants have cashed the Over in eight of their last nine and this number is simply too low.
Verdict: Bet Over 43.5
Buccaneers vs Panthers
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
Now here's a game which doesmean something. The Buccaneers and Panthers will play the first of two games against one another in the last three weeks of the season, and Tampa Bay will get the Miami Dolphins next week. So, while both teams are tied atop the division, this game could easily decide who's earning a trip to the playoffs.
Baker Mayfield's been a hard man to get a read on ever since his shoulder injury. He struggled against the Saints' secondary a couple of weeks ago, but turned around on a short week to put up 277 yards on 19-of-34 passing in Week 15 with two touchdowns and a pick. He was sacked five times in the loss, but overall it was an encouraging step forward — as was the fact that he found his legs again in the immediate aftermath of the injury.
Carolina's defense hasn't been the worst in the league over the last five weeks, but it certainly hasn't looked great — and it's coming off a second loss in two tries against New Orleans. Now, the Saints have thrown the ball a bunch, and been thrown on the most in the league, so it's easy to say a battle through the air just isn't something that's going to work in the Panthers' favor.
They've allowed a generous 7.4 yards per pass, they have the third-lowest sack rate in football, and offensively they offer very little other than handing the ball to Rico Dowdle. The Buccaneers still have a top-10 run defense to go along with an adequate secondary, and while they haven't been overly efficient through the air they've at least limited the interceptions. I think with some help from Carolina's secondary and an unthreatening pass rush that Tampa Bay will plant its flag here.
Verdict: Bet Buccaneers -3
Jaguars vs Broncos
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Allow me to be the voice of reason here. We're not gassing up Trevor Lawrence after throwing six touchdowns on the Jets, who have defended the pass with great difficulty and who had nothing to play for last week. Jacksonville has run through five straight teams with issues defensively, and now it will take on one of the best in football. Offensively, it has averaged just 4.1 yards per rush to rank 24th, and through the air they rank 16th in yards per attempt and 29th in completion percentage.
I don't know about you, but that doesn't have me very excited to bet on this team against Denver. That goes doubly when you take into account the fact that the Broncos rarely run the ball, and the strength of Jacksonville's entire team centers around its ability to stop the run. I'm not exactly the biggest Bo Nix guy, but I believe in sticking to your guns and finding the biggest letdown spot on the schedule.
Verdict: Bet Broncos -3
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Sunday Night Football
Patriots vs Ravens
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 48 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 48 -110o / -110u | -160 |
This will be a critical game for the Ravens' playoff chances, while the Patriots are simply looking to lock up the top seed in the AFC. We saw an admirable performance from this Patriots offense last week, getting a whopping 9.8 yards per carry against a poor run defense, and now the offense should have that same opportunity with Baltimore's defense laying down for every opponent this year except the Bengals last week, evidently.
Cincinnati doesn't offer anything on the ground, however, which is a key difference here. I expect Baltimore to revert to its disorganized play defensively, especially if Kyle Van Noy joins corner Chidobe Awuzie on the sideline, and the offense should pick up the slack against a Patriots defense which has slipped down the ranks with tougher opponents on the schedule lately. Given their big weakness is stopping the run, I see both offenses sprinting up and down the field.
Verdict: Bet Over 48
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Monday Night Football
49ers vs Colts
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
The key last week for Indy was that the defense finally showed up. Seattle has one of the strongest passing offenses in the league, and even without Sauce Gardner they were able to come away with huge plays and hold the Seahawks to just 2-of-13 on third down and 2.3 yards per rush.
What's hidden inside of that game is the fact that Sam Darnold had a pretty efficient day in going for his 271 yards, and he was also sacked just once. I don't think that means Indy's defensive issues are in the rearview, but I also don't think the 49ers' offense is particularly good. This team is down so many big playmakers on both sides of the ball, and it's had a cakewalk to this point with the Cardinals, Panthers, Browns and Titans on the schedule in the last four weeks.
San Francisco can put the hurt on the Colts if it can throw the ball as well as it's been doing for the last few weeks, given the secondary remains a liability and Gardner still isn't practicing. They got a bit lucky to come away with the win last week, and now I unfortunately have to admit a lucky 49ers offense has a great outlook here. That doesn't mean their defense is getting any better, or healthier, and the Colts should be able to re-establish the run against one of the worst front sevens in football.
Verdict: Bet Over 46.5
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