The Los Angeles Rams (11-3) and Seattle Seahawks (11-3) open NFL Week 16 on Thursday Night Football on December 18. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle, Was. The game will broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Seahawks are 1.5-point favorites on the spread (Seahawks -1.5; +102), with the over/under set at 42.5 points. The Seahawks are -115 favorites on the moneyline and the Rams are -105 underdogs.
Let's get into my Thursday Night Football preview and Rams vs Seahawks prediction for tonight's NFC West clash.
Rams vs Seahawks Prediction
- Rams vs Seahawks pick: Lean Seahawks -1.5
My Rams vs Seahawks best bet is the Seahawks to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Rams vs Seahawks Odds
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -122 | 42.5 -112o / -108u | -105 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +102 | 42.5 -112o / -108u | -115 |
Rams vs Seahawks Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Rams Have the Ball
Matthew Stafford is playing some of the best football of his likely Hall of Fame career in what could be his final season, and he is currently a -300 favorite to win MVP.
One of the things holding him and the Rams offense back a year ago was red-zone efficiency — they scored a TD on just 51% of red-zone trips, the eighth-lowest rate in the NFL. I had theorized that bringing in Davante Adams could help take this offense to another level, as he brings a true red-zone threat. While Puka Nacua has become arguably the best pure wide receiver in the league, he hasn’t been a huge TD scorer relative to his massive volume.
I mentioned on an episode of "The Favorites" over the offseason that my first official bet of the 2025 season was locking in Stafford to go over 22.5 passing touchdowns. Sure enough, the addition of Adams helped fuel an early cash on that prop several weeks ago.
Stafford currently leads the NFL with 37 passing TDs, Adams leads the league with 14 receiving TDs, and the Rams’ 67% red-zone TD rate ranks third. However, Adams suffered a hamstring injury that will likely keep him out on TNF, which is a massive blow .
The Rams still have Nacua, along with the most efficient RB duo in the league right now in Kyren Williams, who ranks first in success rate among 48 qualified backs, and backup Blake Corum, who ranks third. This offense has been extremely efficient since shifting to a TE-heavy personnel approach.
Los Angeles should still function at a high level in the event Adams is sidelined, but this is a brutal matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranks first in DVOA and has been equally dominant against both the pass (first) and the run (second).
Stafford was just 15-of-28 for 130 yards against Seattle earlier this season, setting season lows in completion percentage and passing yards. The Seahawks did an excellent job matching the Rams’ heavy 3-TE looks by using six or more defensive backs at a much higher rate than Los Angeles typically sees.
Former Seahawk and current commentator Greg Olsen mentioned that the way to slow down the Seahawks offense is to do something similar, and it clearly worked in this matchup.
It’ll be fascinating to see how the Rams adjust without Adams, whether that means leaning even more into 3-TE personnel and the run game, and how Seattle counters. From a chess-match perspective, this is one of the most interesting games of Week 16, with the league’s most efficient offense facing the league’s most efficient defense.
When the Seahawks Have the Ball
Similar to Stafford setting season lows in Week 11, Sam Darnold also had a game to forget.
Darnold threw for 279 yards, no touchdowns and four interceptions, marking his worst performance of the season after playing at a high level through the first 10 weeks. As Seattle matched the Rams’ heavy personnel with extra defensive backs, the Rams countered by not matching Seattle’s 2-TE sets with base defense on early downs. Darnold faced a season-high rate of nickel defense out of 12 personnel, which disrupted the offense.
Since that game, the Seahawks have made some subtle — but meaningful — tweaks. Over the first 10 weeks, they posted a pass rate over expected (PROE) of -5%, meaning they passed 5% less than league average. Over the last four games, that number has flipped to +4.4%, almost a 10% swing.
The Seahawks also shifted to using more 3-WR sets last week, likely due to backup TE Elijah Arroyo landing on IR. That change led to Rashid Shaheed, whom Seattle acquired before the trade deadline, running a route on 82% of Darnold’s dropbacks, Shaheed's highest rate since joining the team.
This suggests Seattle could take a slightly different approach against the Rams this time around, which could help
Darnold bounce back. That said, this is still a very tough matchup against a Rams defense that ranks third in DVOA and has been equally strong against the pass (third) and the run (fourth).
The Seahawks have a strong RB duo in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, which they’ll likely try to lean on to set up play action. Darnold leads the league with +0.49 EPA per dropback on play-action; the Rams have allowed 7.5 yards per play on play-action, the 12th-highest rate in the league.
That’s clearly the best path for Seattle to move the ball through the air. Because of that, it’s critical for the Seahawks to either play with the lead or keep this game close. If they fall behind by multiple scores, things could unravel quickly. Getting off to a strong start will be absolutely critical.
Rams vs Seahawks Prediction, Betting Analysis
The full-game spread has moved quite a bit, from Rams -1.5 at open to Seahawks -1.5 to -2.
The total sits around 42.5.While my power ratings have the total a few points higher, this being the second meeting between these teams, which tends to favor the under, combined with the possibility of rain and wind, helps explain why the total has been bet down.
The Rams could also be without Davante Adams, which is another reason why the total has settled where it has. Either way, this is a very sharp (and volatile) market currently.
We’ll have a much clearer picture of the weather closer to kickoff, and while most of the injury report is clean, Seattle LT Charles Cross remains questionable with a hamstring injury and has yet to practice as of writing. If he’s ruled out, that would be a significant blow for the Seahawks.
While I’m leaning Seattle, I want to wait for more clarity. I expect a lot of public action to come in on the Rams, which could create value on the Seahawks, particularly in the first half. I’ll be watching closely to see if the 1st half line gets to Seattle +0.5 at a reasonable price.
One other factor worth noting is that Matthew Stafford has historically struggled in the rain, which we could see in this game, especially early. If that holds, it only strengthens the case for Seattle in the first half.
The Rams offense should be able to adjust without Adams to some extent, but he’s been the difference between a very good offense and a truly elite one. Without him, they could struggle out of the gate before finding their footing in the second half.
I realize this isn’t as clean as locking in a single side immediately, but I’m not going to box myself in prematurely. A big part of betting is timing the market and understanding which pieces of information — like weather or injury news — may not be fully priced in yet.
As always, be sure to follow me in the app, as I typically lock in multiple bets and props for every TNF game and will do so again if and when the timing looks right.
Pick: Lean Seahawks 1.5
Spread
My initial play for this game was the Seahawks 1st Half Spread +0.5, but the market has moved quite a bit toward them. My lean is now Seahawks -1.5 on the full game spread.
Moneyline
I have no play for either moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
