Two shutouts, six big comebacks, multiple eliminations, but no division winners. Week 15 brought the chaos, but Week 16 should help clear the playoff picture a bit.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 16 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, December 16, at 2 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
Eleven Heaven
Broncos Win Streak
A unique matchup. Broncos have won 11 straight outright. Jaguars have won 5 straight both outright and ATS.
We’ve only seen two of these matchups since 1990:
2007 AFC title: Chargers (8-game SU/ATS) vs. Patriots (17-game SU)
2004 reg. Season: Bills (6-game SU/ATS) vs. Steelers (13-game SU)
Since 1990, teams on a 11+ game win streak have been inflated and have struggled to cover, going 14-36-2 ATS.
Bounce, Bounce
Lions Off a Loss
Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 19-12-1 SU, 23-9 ATS off of a SU loss as a duo, but they’ve won 15 in a row outright dating back to November 1st of 2022, going 14-1 ATS in that spot, failing to cover vs. the Giants in Week 12.
Public Problem
Gone in 60 Seconds
According to Action Network's betting data, NFL teams getting 60% of tickets or more are 54-90 ATS (38%) through 15 weeks, with a $100 bettor down $4,066 for a -28.2% ROI. These 60%+ ticket teams are below .500 ATS in 14 of 15 weeks.
For some perspective, in the 23-year history of the Bet Labs database, here are the worst seasons for 60%+ ticket teams:
2025: 54-90 ATS (-$4,066)
2020: 48-65 ATS (-$1,831)
2013: 78-92-6 ATS (-$1,658)
2022: 54-63-2 ATS (-$1,351)
Shutout Value
Down, But Not Out
Both the Raiders and Bengals were shutout last week … and historically, that creates value in their next game.
Since 2015, teams that were shut out in their previous game are 35-17-3 ATS, including 5-0 ATS this season.
Incentive Season
2025 NFL Bonuses, Records & Milestones
Incentive season has arrived. Here is a comprehensive list of bonuses, records, milestones and more for all 32 NFL teams updated daily through Week 18.
All Coming Up McVay
December to Remember
As a head coach, Sean McVay is 28-11 SU and 27-11-1 ATS in the month of December, winning 9 in a row outright. Since the start of 2021, McVay is 17-3 ATS in December now.
Opposite Directions
Panthers, Chiefs Go For History
The Panthers have struggled as favorites and thrived as underdogs. This week, they are going for their 8th outright win as a dog — Panthers 7 outright wins as an underdog is tied with 1992 Colts for most wins as a dog thru 14 games since 1980.
Carolina is also 6-0 ATS after a loss this year, best mark in the NFL.
In Kansas City, it's the opposite story. They've already lost 7 times as the betting favorite this season and are going for an 8th loss this week — Chiefs 7 total losses this season as a favorite is tied for the most for a team in their first 14 games since 1990. The last team to do so? 2014 Saints behind Drew Brees.
Comeback Kings
Tough Omen
Both the Falcons and Bills are coming off big comebacks last week. In the last decade, teams off a 14+ point comeback in their last game are just 59-78 ATS in their next game … but, it is important to note, the Bills are actually 5-0 SU/ATS in this spot since 2019, trumping the trend themselves in an almost unfathomable fashion.
Off Mile High
Tough Spot
Coming off a game at Mile High Stadium is never an easy feat, which the Packers will do this week against the Bears.
Last three seasons, teams coming off a road game in Denver are 6-17 ATS, including 0-6 ATS this season. Since 2003, teams on short rest coming off a game in Denver are just 5-15 ATS. Tough spot.
Every NFL Game For Week 16
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➤11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS Seahawks. 11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS Rams. An NFC West battle that is nearly unprecedented.
Two division teams, 78% win pct or better, in December or later – we’ve only seen one such matchup since the 2013 season and that came with the Vikings and Lions in Week 18 last year to win the division.
Two teams, both with a 70%+ win pct both SU and ATS in December or later has only happened three times since 1990:
2024 Vikings at Lions (-3) – DET 31-9
2011 playoffs Saints at 49ers (+3.5) – SF 36-32
2008 playoffs Ravens at Titans (-3) – BAL 13-10
➤Sean McVay has dominated the Seahawks. He is 12-6 ATS vs. Seattle as coach of the Rams, including 11-3 ATS since 2019, covering the spread by over 4.5 PPG.
Rams beat the Seahawks by just two pts in Week 11, failing to cover the spread. McVay hasn’t gone 0-2 ATS vs. Seahawks since 2018.
With Stafford at QB, the Rams are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS vs. Seattle, covering the spread by 5.4 PPG.
McVay is 33-21-1 ATS vs. the NFC West in his coaching career – McVay is just 8-11 ATS vs. 49ers, but he is a combined 25-10-1 ATS vs. the Cardinals and Seahawks.
➤Sam Darniold and the Seahawks are trying to avenge a loss to the Rams by just two pts back in Week 11. In Darnold’s career, he is 19-22-2 ATS when facing an opponent his team lost to in their last matchup, but with Seattle, he is 3-1 ATS in this spot, best of the four teams he’s played for.
➤December football rolls on. As a head coach, Sean McVay is 28-11 SU and 27-11-1 ATS in the month of December, winning 9 in a row outright.
Since the start of 2021, McVay is 17-3 ATS in December now.
➤Seahawks played at home vs. Colts last week and now stay at home to face the Rams.
Under Mike Macdonals, Seattle is actually 0-3 SU and ATS when playing on a homestand, losing to the Vikings, Rams and 49ers – with all three games coming last season.
➤You have to go all the way back to 2014 to find the last season the Seahawks finished above .500 ATS vs. their own division. Under Mike Macdonals, Seattle is 6-4 ATS vs. NFC West, including 3-1 ATS this season.
➤Mike Macdonald has coached seven total night games while with the Seahawks. He started 0-3 SU in those games, and since have won four straight at night.
He is 1-3 SU with Geno Smith
He is 3-0 SU/ATS with Sam Darnold
➤Sean McVay has faced the Seahawks at night in primetime four times as coach of the Rams – He is 4-0 ATS in those games, covering the spread by 6.3 PPG.
➤How big is the Davante Adams injury for the Rams?
• Entering Week 16, Adams leads NFL in receiving TDs with 14. Next closest is Amon-Ra St. Brown with 11.
• In the red zone, Davante leads the NFL in targets with 32 – six more than any other player with 12 total TDs. Of those 32 targets, 26 were 1st read/designed, where Davante was the main look on the play.
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➤Saturday NFL football is back and starts this week.
Since 2003, we’ve had 118 total games played during the regular season on a Saturday – almost all coming late in the season like this one.
Road teams are 67-46-6 ATS (60%) in regular season Saturday games. When the matchup is a divisional game, they are 34-16-2 ATS in that span.
➤The last time these two teams met was in the Conference Championship last year, a 55-23 win for Philadelphia.
When the Eagles beat an opponent in their previous meeting, and Hurts starts in that next game, Philly is just 19-29-1 ATS – that is the worst mark of 114 QBs since he was drafted into the NFL.
➤In Weeks 13 through 18, Jalen Hurts is 6-13-1 ATS in his career even after the cover last week vs. Raiders…
Hurts ATS by month
34-22-1 ATS in November or earlier
13-18-1 ATS in December or later
In December or later, Hurts is just 5-7-1 ATS vs. NFC East, including 1-5 ATS on the road.
➤Eagles were double-digit favorites vs. the Raiders last week and are now laying points on the road vs. Commanders.
Under Jalen Hurts, Eagles are just 3-6 ATS the week after being a double-digit favorite.
➤Dan Quinn has been listed as a home underdog 11 times as a head coach, his teams are 7-4 ATS, including 3-1 ATS when facing his own division.
➤Marcus Mariota has struggled early in games throughout his career, going 32-48-3 against the 1H spread in his career, the 4th-worst mark of any QB dating back to 2005.
2025 has been a nice change for him though, this year in seven starts, Mariota is 4-3 1H ATS, which would be his first season .500 1H ATS or better in his career.
➤Do we expect a bounce back to reality? Commanders were shutout in Week 14. In Week 15 they beat the Giants. Teams to get shutout, then win their next game are just 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS over the last five seasons, including 3-7 SU/ATS as underdogs.
➤Eagles were off an overtime game in Week 14 and then in Week 15, they beat the Raiders 31-0 and their defense was only on the field for 42 plays.
Last decade, when a teams defense is on the field for under 45 plays off a win, they are 35-14 SU and 29-20 ATS in their next game – nice and rested. Even in December or later, these teams went 10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS.
➤Eagles are off a massive win against the Raiders, winning 31-0. Since calendar flipped to 2022, Philly has played 11 games coming off a 20+ pt win, they are 10-1 SU with their only loss coming to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
➤Commanders are coming off a game in New York against the Giants and now play on short rest at home vs. Eagles.
Off Broadway: Teams off facing either the Giants or Jets in New York, and then have to play on short rest are 11-29 ATS since 2003.
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➤After their Week 14 loss in Green Bay, the Bears are 1-12 SU vs. Packers in their last 13 meetings, including 2-11 ATS in those games.
Since the 2009 season, the Bears have only been favored to beat the Packers four times in a total of 35 meetings. Over the last 20 years, the Bears are a putrid 12-28 ATS (30%) against the Packers. A $100 bettor would be down $1,666, Chicago’s worst opponent ATS.
➤Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons. They are 1-3 ATS vs. NFC North this year, 9-18-1 ATS over the last 5 seasons and 12-26-2 ATS since 2019 – all being the worst mark for any team in the NFL in those spans.
Bears haven’t finished above .500 ATS at home vs. NFC North since 2018, since that year they are 4-13-2 ATS at Soldier Field vs. their own division.
➤Packers are off a loss last week vs. Broncos, a rare occurrence for Matt LaFleur in December, who is now 21-5 SU and 14-11-1 ATS.
After a SU loss in December, LaFleur is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in his next game.
In the first 10 weeks of the season, Jordan Love and the Packers are 12-13-1 SU. From Week 11 on, he is 16-8 SU – Love is 5-3 SU after a loss in Week 11 or later,
➤Coming off a game at Mile High Stadium is never an easy feat. Last three seasons, teams coming off a road game in Denver are 6-17 ATS, including 0-6 ATS this season. Since 2003, teams on short rest coming off a game in Denver are just 5-15 ATS. Tough spot.
➤Ben Johnson is now 8-5-1 ATS as head coach of the Bears, profiting a $100 bettor $246 this year.
That is currently the highest ATS mark for any Bears head coach since Mike Ditka, who was there btwn 1982-92 and ten games above .500 ATS.
The one thing Ben Johnson would like to change is his record vs. NFC North. He is 1-3 ATS vs. his own division and 7-2-1 ATS vs. teams outside the NFC North.
No Bears head coach has finished .500 ATS or better vs. their own division also since Ditka.
➤This is a different Bears offense. They are 11-3 to their team total over this year, tied for the best mark in the NFL with the Cowboys and Jaguars.
Chicago offense this season is historic for the franchise. They have 365 pts in 14 games with only 10 turnovers, the most pts with the fewest turnovers through 14 games in franchise history.
➤Packers have done a better job scoring pts in the first half lately. After starting 3-9 to their 1st half team total over, they’ve gone over in their last two games to move to 5-9 1H TTO. In the NFC, only the Vikings have a worse mark in this spot at 4-10 1H TTO.
The Packers, Chiefs, Raiders, Seahawks and Vikings are all 10-4 to the first half under this season, all tied for the best marks in the NFL in that category.
➤Another great week for Joe Thuney. No sacks allowed, no hits, no hurries on 66 snaps. The Joe Thuney impact on the Bears can not be understated.
According to PFF, he owns the 6th-best pass block grade for any player this season, while also having the 2nd-most snaps behind just Drew Dalman.
Thuney hasn’t allowed a sack and he’s only allowed 10 hurries and 11 pressures in those almost 1,000 total snaps.
After playing for the Patriots, Chiefs and now the Bears, Thuney also knows something about winning – in 160 regular season games, Thuney’s teams are 118-42 SU (74%) and in the playoffs his teams are 17-4 SU.
➤Bears have been extremely turnover-friendly this year. They are +20 in turnover differential this year, best mark in the NFL by 6 total TO.
Since 2000, 10 other teams have had a +20 TO differential through 14 games, none made the Super Bowl.
The stat that has helped the Bears TO differential? Caleb Williams holds the NFL record for fewest interceptions in a QB’s first 1,000 career pass attempts (12).
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➤Historically, Josh Allen has performed better ATS vs. good defensive teams and haven’t been able to cover spreads vs. bad defensive teams.
• When defenses allow under 20 PPG, Allen is 28-9-1 ATS in his career, the best mark for any QB since at least 2003.
• Facing teams allowing 28+ PPG, Allen is 8-11-1 ATS in 20 starts, including 5-8 ATS when they allow 30+ PPG.
➤Since 2010, the Bills have been listed as a favorite against the Browns in five total meetings and Buffalo is 5-0 SU and ATS in those games, winning by 7 pts or more in all five meetings.
➤The Browns are big home underdogs this week. Since 2020, home underdogs of 7+ pts are 81-52-3 ATS, including 11-6 ATS this season.
Double-digit home underdogs have been a good bet recently, going 27-16-1 ATS since 2020, covering the spread by 3.9 PPG.
➤Bills are on a road trip this week after facing the Patriots in New England last week. With Josh Allen, Buffalo is 10-5-1 ATS on any road trip (2nd consecutive road game or later), covering the spread by 4.5 PPG.
➤Cleveland is a house of horrors for good teams traveling on the road.
Since 2020, the Browns are 13-6 SU at home vs. teams above .500 on the season. Cleveland has profited a $100 bettor $1,181 in that span, the best mark of any team in the NFL. When the Browns are away from home vs. teams above .500, they are 5-19 SU in that span.
➤After last week, Josh Allen is just 5-11 against the first-half spread vs. Patriots, losing 7 in a row in the first half vs. New England.
Not much different than this season. Bills are 3-11 against the spread in the 1st half this season — worst mark in the NFL
Buffalo has lost six straight 1H’s ATS entering this week. After Josh Allen and the Bills face an AFC East opponent, they have failed to cover the 1st half spread in six straight games – with all six games coming since the calendar flipped to 2025.
➤What a comeback by the Bills last week, they trailed by 21 pts in the 1st half and came back to win outright.
Since division realignment in 2002, teams off a comeback win of 21+ pts in December or later are just 7-11 SU/ATS in their next game, including 2-5 SU in their last 7 games in this spot.
➤This season, the Bills are 5-0 ATS when facing teams who are above .500 SU, the most wins without a loss for any team in the NFL.
Against teams below .500, the Bills are just 1-4 ATS this season.
➤Myles Garrett enters Week 16 with 21.5 total sacks on the season, one full sack away from tying the single-season record held by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt, who both had 22.5 sacks.
Garrett has faced the Bills twice in his career, he has just one total sack in those two games with Josh Allen starting both games.
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➤Justin Herbert has faced the Dallas Cowboys twice in his career as a starter for the Chargers – Herbert lost both matchups, both at home, both by the same score, 20-17, failing to cover the spread in both games, too.
Looking at the matchup from a Cowboys-Chargers standpoint, the Chargers have traveled to Dallas three total times dating back to 2000 and Dallas has lost all three of those matchups outright and ATS.
➤A good spot for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.
Dak has started nineteen total games where Dallas is on a homestand (2nd consecutive home game or later), and Dak is 15-4 SU and 11-8 ATS, including 13-2 SU in his last 15 starts in the spot.
Since the start of the 2022 season, Dallas has played on a homestand where they played at night in their last game, they are 3-0 SU in those games.
➤The Chargers have been listed as underdogs in three total games this season, they are 3-0 SU in those games beating the Chiefs twice and the Eagles. That is the most wins without a loss as a dog for any team this year.
In Justin Herbert’s career, he is 17-12-1 ATS as an underdog, including 13-6 ATS on a road/neutral site.
➤The Cowboys are what they are. 6-7-1 SU this year, facing Herbert and the Chargers. In Herbert’s career, he is 27-13 SU vs. teams below .500, including 11-2 SU in that spot with Jim Harbaugh as his head coach. He went 16-11 SU with Anthony Lynn and Brandon Staley.
➤Another Cowboys game, another over last week.
• Dallas is 10-4 to the over this year, best mark in the NFL.
• Dallas is 31-18 to the over in the last 3 seasons, also best in the NFL.
The over is 44-24 at home in Dallas since 2018 — above .500 to the over in all eight seasons.
➤In case the line flips as we get closer to kickoff, the Cowboys are 3-0 ATS as home underdogs this season, facing the Chiefs, Eagles and Packers in those games.
➤It hasn’t been easy for Dak and the Cowboys to bounce back from a loss at home. With Dak as their starter, they are 13-6 ATS on the road off a loss and 13-18-1 ATS at home.
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➤Patrick Mahomes is now out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL and KC turns to Gardner Minshew.
Since Andy Reid arrived in KC in 2013, he has gone to a backup QB seven times and the Chiefs are 4-3 SU/ATS in those games
➤Since the start of last season, 59 QBs have had at least 100 plays at QB, Minshew’s 6.2 average depth of target is the 3rd-lowest behind Dillon Gabriel and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. FWIW, Mahomes is a full yard higher at 7.2 aDOT.
In his career as a starter, Minshew is actually 4-0 SU/ATS as a road favorite, scoring 27+ pts in all four games. Normally, Minshew follows his role.
Minshew is 9-5 SU in his career when listed as a betting favorite and now 8-24 SU as an underdog.
➤The Chiefs have lost as a favorite in 7 total games this season, tied for the most for a team in their first 14 games since 1990. The last team to do so? 2014 Saints behind Drew Brees.
In that span, only two teams have lost 8+ games outright as a favorite: 2014 Saints and 2003 Bucs.
➤Chiefs have lost three straight road games outright, all as favorites, entering this week against the Titans.
After going 0-8 ATS at home last season, the Titans are a respectable 3-4 ATS at home this year, including 2-2 ATS vs. teams outside the AFC South.
➤The Chiefs haven’t exactly run over the Titans in their recent meetings, all with Patrick Mahomes – KC is just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 10.9 PPG.
How have the Chiefs performed against the spread when facing really bad teams recently? When they go up against teams with a win pct of 25% or less, KC is 3-6-1 ATS since 2022.
➤The bounce back off a divisional game hasn’t been the best spot for KC, they are 8-13 ATS since 2022, the 2nd-worst mark for any team in that NFL, ahead of just the Vikings.
When the Chiefs are off facing a divisional opponent who is over .500, they are just 2-5 ATS in that span in his next game.
➤Unfortunately for Tennessee, their streak continued last week. They have lost 11 consecutive games both SU and ATS after an outright win. After a SU loss, they are a respectable 5-6 ATS this year.
➤Different from the past. The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS vs. teams above .500 this year and 4-0 ATS when facing teams below .500.
➤Titans are just 4-10 against the first half spread this season, tied for the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL. But that includes a 1-6 1H ATS mark on the road and 3-4 1H ATS mark at home – a big difference in play.
➤The Chiefs have lost six consecutive games ATS entering this week – unbelievably, that is their 2nd 6-game ATS losing streak since the beginning of last season.
KC is 1 of 5 franchises to lose 6 straight ATS since the start of last year and the only team to do it twice, in two different stretches.
➤Part of the Chiefs problem vs. Chargers last week was penalties, they ended up with nine – and KC hasn’t had a bounce back answer.
After a 7+ penalty game, KC is still just 3-9 ATS in their next game.
➤A lot has been made of the Chiefs record in one-score games.
They are 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in one-score games this year. Prior to this stretch, they were not only 12-0 SU in 2024, but they had won 17 consecutive one-score games outright.
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➤The Bengals and Dolphins have met a total of eight times since 2010, the under is 7-1 in those games, going under the total by 5 PPG.
In that span, Cincinnati has traveled to Miami three times, with the Dolphins 3-0 SU/ATS vs. the Bengals. Burrow himself has faced Miami just once in his career and is 1-0 SU/ATS, winning 27-15 back in 2022 at home.
➤Mike McDaniel has coached thirteen career games where the Dolphins are on short rest, Miami is 3-10 SU in those games, losing by 8.2 PPG – Miami has lost 7 straight outright in this spot. In eight career games as an underdog on short rest, McDaniel is 1-7 SU, losing by 14.3 PPG.
➤The Bengals were shutout at home vs. the Ravens last week, their first shutout with Joe Burrow at QB and their first shutout as a franchise since 2017 at home vs… the Ravens, too.
Since 2015, teams that were shut out in their previous game are 35-17-3 ATS, including 5-0 ATS this season. Raiders are also in this spot this week.
➤We have a tight spread and a high total in Miami this week. In games where the line is 4 or less, McDaniel and the Dolphins are 16-24 ATS, including 13-18 ATS with Tua.
When the O/U is higher, Miami has struggled in these tight spread games:
At 45 or higher: 9-16 ATS
At 47 or higher: 6-12 ATS
At 49 or higher: 4-7 ATS
➤Since the start of 2022, Bengals and Burrow have done a good job bouncing back after big games vs. Steelers and Ravens – they are 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS in their next game, but all 11 games Cincinnati has either won or lost by 7 pts or less.
➤Tua Tagovailoa now leads the NFL in interceptions with 15 after throwing one against the Steelers last week.
Most INT in NFL
Tua Tagovailoa: 15
Geno Smith: 14
Justin Herbert: 12
Tua was 35-1 to lead the league in interceptions in the preseason and his 15 INT is the most for him in a single season in NFL or college career.
➤When it gets cold, the effects seem to linger. When Tua returns home off a road game, he is 13-8 ATS in his career – 10-4 ATS in November or earlier and 3-4 ATS in December or later.
➤Coming out of the locker room, the Dolphins have had a huge issue this year. They are 3-11 against the 3rd quarter spread, tied for the worst mark in the NFL with the Raiders.
Miami is .500 ATS or better in the other three quarters of the game:
1Q: 9-5 ATS
2Q: 9-5 ATS
3Q: 3-11 ATS
4Q: 7-7 ATS
➤From a record standpoint, the difference between Tua at home and the road is drastic.
On the road or neutral site, Tua is 16-22 SU, 17-20-1 ATS.
At home, Tua is 28-11 SU and 24-15 ATS in his career.
As a home underdog, Tua is actually above .500 SU, going 7-6, with a 9-4 ATS mark.
➤Bengals are slated to potentially be favorites for the first time in almost two months (6 straight games as an underdog) this week and just the 4th time this season (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS).
Since 2020, we’ve seen ten teams listed as a road favorite after six straight games as a dog, they are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS in that games as a favorite, winning by 8.4 PPG.
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➤Saints been an under team this year. They are 10-4 to the under, tied for the best mark in the NFL with the Texans and Chiefs.
The under has cashed in 9 of the Saints last ten games entering this week. Since 2022, the under is 41-24 in all 65 total Saints games, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind just the Texans.
As a starting QB, Tyler Shough is 5-1 to the under, going under the total by 4.4 PPG, including 2-0 to the under at home in New Orleans.
➤The Jets haven’t loved facing the Saints in their franchise's recent history. In their last nine meetings, Jets are 2-9 SU and 3-6 ATS vs. New Orleans.
➤The Tyler Shough effect has hit New Orleans and it’s made them a tough offense to face.
In the last 3 weeks, Shough has the 2nd-most rush yds in the NFL for QBs (105) behind just Josh Allen, who has 164 rush yds. In that same span, Shough has a +4.9 completion pct over expected, which is 8th in the NFL and he’s also 8th in success rate.
And here’s maybe the best part: last 3 weeks, he has just a 8.9% off target pct on his throws, that is the lowest mark of any QB in that span. Shough was 250-1 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, he is now down to 16-1.
➤With that being said about Shough’s accuracy, time to talk about the unbelievable. Through 14 games, the Jets defense has yet to record an interception.
Most Consecutive Games Without a Defensive INT since 1950
2025 Jets, 14
2024-25 49ers, 14
2024 Giants, 11
The Jets have forced just three turnovers this season, the fewest in NFL history through a team’s first 14 games.
➤Saints have had a penalty problem lately. Nine last week, ten the week before – actually winning both games outright against division rivals, Panthers and Bucs.
Since 2000, teams with 9+ penalties in b2b games, who won both outright and then are listed as favorites in their next game, are 54-29 SU but just 34-49 ATS.
➤For the first time since 2019, Saints have won b2b games, both against NFC South opponents – a change for New Orleans in the right direction.
➤Saints are 2-12 against the 1st quarter spread this season, the worst mark in the NFL.
The Saints are also 0-12-2 on the 1Q moneyline, not winning any of the opening frames. New Orleans has been outscored 106-33 in the fourteen 1st quarters.
Dating back to 2020, here are the worst 1Q ATS marks over a full season:
2021 Packers: 3-15 1Q ATS
2025 Saints: 2-12 1Q ATS
2024 Bears: 4-12-1 1Q ATS
2021 Jaguars: 4-12-1 1Q ATS
➤The Saints pass defense played well lately, allowing under 200 pass yds in four straight games. Since December 1st, seven teams have held opponents to under 200 pass yds in four straight games, they are 7-0 SU in their next game.
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➤Vikings play indoors, even though they do reside in Minnesota. When the Vikings play outdoors in December or later, it hasn’t been pretty. They are 6-11-1 ATS over the last decade in that spot, failing to cover the spread by 5.1 PPG.
➤Vikings are coming off an emotional win in Dallas on Sunday Night Football last week. This season, teams coming off a road game in Dallas are 0-6 ATS. The only other team 0-6 ATS in that spot with Dallas is Denver.
Those teams coming off a trip to Dallas are failing to cover the spread by 11.3 PPG this season.
➤Giants have historically struggled with the VIkings. Since 2005 Giants are 3-9 SU and 5-7 ATS vs. Minnesota, including 1-5 SU in their last six meetings, including 1-5 SU in their last six home games vs. Vikings.
➤The Giants have started hot this year; they are 9-5 1Q ATS, tied for the best mark in the NFL, including 8-4 1Q ATS with Jameis Winston or Jaxon Dart at QB.
This didn’t work last week at home vs. Commanders, as they trailed 10-0 at the end of the 1st quarter. After a 1Q ML loss for the Giants this year, 3-1 1Q ML and ATS in their next game.
With Dart and Jameis, the Giants are 8-3 to the full game over and 1-2 to the over with Russell Wilson. In the first half, the Giants are 10-4 to the over this year, including 9-2 with Dart and Jameis.
➤After the cover last week, JJ McCarthy is 4-4 ATS as a starter. Minnesota is 2-4 ATS with Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer.
Vikings have convered consecutive games, scoring 30+ pts in both games, both with JJ McCarthy at QB.
Teams to cover b2b games, posting 30+ pts in both, while their team is still under .500 are just 6-20 SU and 9-17 ATS in their next game over the last decade.
➤One thing you can expect from JJ McCarthy, to air it out. Of 54 QBs with at least 30 plays this season, McCarthy is 3rd in average depth of target at 9.4 yds, behind Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston.
The problem? McCarthy’s completion pct over expected is -6.4%, which is 49th in that group.
➤A pretty good spot for the Vikings. Teams coming off an outright road win at night in primetime are 78-48 SU and 73-53 ATS in their next game over the last 5 seasons.
➤When you face the Vikings. You face the blitz. Vikings have blitzed on defense 180 times this season, 2nd-most in the NFL to the Falcons and their 39.5% blitzes per dropback is the highest mark in the NFL.
When Jaxson Dart has been blitzed this year, here are his numbers vs. not blitzed:
Blitz: 62.1% comp.%, 8 pass TD, 3 INT, 7.4 Y/A with a 8.0 aDOT and a 2.77 avg time to throw.
Not Blitz: 62.7% comp%, 5 TD, 1 INT, 6.5 Y/A with a 10.4 aDOT and a 3.29 avg time to throw.
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➤Baker Mayfield has faced all 32 teams in the NFL in his career. He’s only 3-0 SU or better against one team: Carolina Panthers.
He is 5-0 SU against Carolina, winning by an average of 11 PPG.
➤The Panthers let a road game in division slip away last week against the Saints. This season, Carolina is 6-0 ATS after a SU loss, covering the spread by 12.8 PPG, the most wins without a loss ATS for any team this season.
With a cover this week, it would be Carolina’s most such ATS wins after a SU loss as a franchise in a single season since 1999 when they went 7-1 ATS in that spot.
➤It’s been a terrible skid for the Bucs, who have lost 6 consecutive games ATS entering this game vs. Panthers.
It’s Tampa’s 1st 6-game ATS losing streak since 2022, they haven’t lost 7 straight ATS since 1982-83, losing 8 straight ATS.
➤A theme Carolina probably doesn’t like, but it might be a good thing they are underdogs this week.
This season, Panthers are 7-5 SU as underdogs and 0-2 SU as favorites.
Panthers have 7 outright wins as an underdog this season, that is tied w/ 1992 Colts for most wins as a dog thru 14 games since 1980.
➤Baker, Bowles and the Bucs are off a loss on Thursday Night Football last week and some extra prep time for Carolina.
Baker is 11-15 ATS on any extended rest in his career as a starter, including just 1-2 ATS this season. His coach, Todd Bowles hasn’t been much better, at 12-17-1 ATS on any extended prep time.
➤How big was the Panthers loss to the Saints last week? The Bucs really don’t “need” this game.
Bucs can lose to Carolina this coming week and still win the division if …
— Bucs beat Carolina in Week 18 and
— Bucs beat Miami; or Panthers lose to Seattle and Falcons lose one game
➤The combo of Baker Mayfield and Todd Bowles has been tough at night – just 2-10 SU after the loss to the Falcons last week.
The question is how they do off a night game? Under Bowles, Bucs are 11-5 SU and 10-6 ATS after coaching a night game.
➤Home games have never been Baker’s forte. He is .500 ATS or worse in all eight of his seasons as a starting QB. Overall, Baker is 22-36-1 ATS at home.
When Baker hits the road directly after a home game? He’s 23-15 ATS as a starter and 10-4 ATS with the Bucs.
➤Baker’s recent form hasn’t been great. In the first six weeks of the season, Baker was 9th in EPA + CPOE composite and 7th in adjusted EPA/play among 40 QBs.
Since Week 7, Baker is 36th of 38 QBs in the NFL in EPA + CPOE composite and he’s 34th in adjusted EPA/play.
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➤Broncos have now won 11 consecutive games outright entering this week, including 12 consecutive home games outright as well.
• The longest win streak in single season in Broncos history is 13 back in 1998.
• Broncos longest home win streak is 19 games over multiple seasons in 1997-99. A win this week would be Denver’s 2nd longest home win streak. Denver is the only undefeated team SU at home this season.
Since 1990, teams on a 11+ game win streak have been inflated and have struggled to cover, going 14-36-2 ATS.
➤A unique matchup. Broncos have won 11 straight outright. Jaguars have won 5 straight both outright and ATS.
We’ve only seen two of these matchups since 1990:
2007 AFC title: Chargers (8-game SU/ATS) vs. Patriots (17-game SU)
2004 reg. Season: Bills (6-game SU/ATS) vs. Steelers (13-game SU)
In both games, the team on the long SU win streak won outright.
➤This is a different Jaguars offense than we might have remembered. They are 11-3 to their team total over this year, tied for the best mark in the NFL with the Cowboys and Bears.
This season, the Jaguars have gone over their team total in all six road games, only undefeated team to the over on the road.
➤Bo Nix might have had his best game as a pro QB last week. 4 pass TD, 0 INT, for 302 yards, with no sacks taken.
Since the start of last season, Dener is 2-5 1H ML after Nix throws 3+ TDs and 3-4 SU/ATS full game in that spot.
➤Jaguars had another big win vs. Jets last week. Under Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars have been profitable ATS off a win.
19-13 ATS off a win
10-4 ATS off a win by more than 10 pts
➤Later in the season, scoring 48 pts like the Jaguars did last week can be a good omen going forward.
Since 2000, teams who score 48+ pts in November or later are 59-42-4 ATS.
➤The Jaguars rush defense has been something to marvel at.
They are allowing just 86.3 yards per game, fewest mark in the NFL by 3.5 yards.
They are 5th in rush EPA allowed and 2nd in rush success rate allowed.
Jacksonville is just 1 of 2 teams this year to not allow any player to rush for 90+ yards with the Lions, except the Jags haven’t even allowed a player to rush for 75+ yards.
➤Bo Nix has made 32 career starts in the NFL, and he is 16-1 SU as a favorite and 6-9 SU as an underdog.
The one thing Nix always does well is not to get blown out as a favorite. He is 17-0 in a 6-point teaser as a favorite.
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➤The question is always the same with the Falcons: Can they do it again? The Falcons haven’t finished a season above .500 ATS after a SU win since 2019 – they are 11-24-1 ATS after a win since 2020, the worst mark for any team in the NFL – including 1-3 ATS this season in that spot.
In Cousins’ career, he is 33-46-2 ATS after his team won the previous game outright.
➤Since the start of the 2022 season, Jacoby Brissett has made 12 starts at home for the Cardinals, Patriots and Browns – the over is 9-3 in those games, going over the total by 6.3 PPG.
With a minimum of ten starts at home, only Drake Maye (11-3) has a higher ROI to the over at home in that span.
Since 2022, Cardinals home games in general are 23-10 to the over, the best mark for any team in the NFL
➤Jacoby Brissett started hot, not as much lately. In his first 3 starts this year, Arizona covered the 1st half spread in all three. Since, Arizona is just 1-5 1H ATS.
➤A pretty good spot for the Falcons. Teams coming off an outright road win at night in primetime are 78-48 SU and 73-53 ATS in their next game over the last 5 seasons.
➤The Falcons defense has gotten to the QB at a very efficient rate this season. Their 48 total sacks is 2nd in the NFL behind just the Broncos. Last season, Atlanta had just 31 total sacks on defense, the 2nd-fewest mark in the NFL.
The franchise record for sacks in a season is 55, which is 7 away with three games to go.
➤The slide continued for the Cardinals last week. Arizona is now 1-11 SU in their last 12 games and have now lost 6 in a row outright.
In December or later, teams that have lost 6 straight, who are home dogs vs. teams below .500 are 51-34 ATS since 2003. This also includes the Giants this week.
➤It isn’t just the fact that Trey McBride has more TD catches from Brissett (9) than Kyler Murray (5), it’s also the distance of those catches that make it stand out.
McBride has caught a TD pass of 10+ yds 8 times in his career – none of those have come from Kyler Murray.
McBride TD Passes of 10+ yds by QB
7 – Jacoby Brissett
1 – Josh Dobbs
0 – Kyler Murray
➤We have another dome vs. dome matchup this week, with both teams playing in for the most part an indoor stadium. Since 2012, when two dome teams play with a higher total (45 or more), the under is 159-124 (56%), a bit contrary to what most would assume.
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➤Here we go again. Lions off a loss last week vs. Rams and now turn around and are around 7-pt favorites at home vs. Steelers.
Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 19-12-1 SU, 23-9 ATS off of a SU loss as a duo, but they’ve won 15 in a row outright dating back to November 1st of 2022, going 14-1 ATS in that spot, failing to cover vs. the Giants in Week 12.
Amazingly enough, the Lions have now alternated outright wins and losses in their last ten total games entering this week.
➤Lions blew a 10-pt lead to the Rams last week and ended up not only losing, but also not covering. Since start of 2024, DET was 21-0 SU when leading by 10+ – their last such loss was the playoff game vs. 49ers.
In Dan Campbell’s career as a coach, when his team blows a 7+ pt lead in his previous game and loses, he is 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS in his next game, winning and covering six in a row entering this week.
➤Steelers have been a good 1st half team this season, going 10-4 1H ATS, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind just the Patriots.
This is Pittsburgh’s best 1H ATS start since 2005, where they also were 10-4, they are even 9-5 1Q ATS this season, too.
On the other side, last 4 seasons, Detroit is 33-13 1H ATS when playing indoors.
➤Steelers may be good in first quarter and first half ATS-wise, but they’ve scored 7 pts or less in the 1st quarter in 66 consecutive games.
➤Steelers are around a 7-pt underdog vs. Lions this week.
• As a 6+ pt underdog, Mike Tomlin is 6-19 SU and 13-11-1 ATS – as a 7+ pt dog, he is 3-15 SU and 7-10-1 ATS.
• As a 6+ pt underdog, Aaron Rodgers is 2-11 SU and 7-6 ATS – as a 7+ pt dog, he is 0-6 SU and 4-2 ATS.
Aaron Rodgers Biggest Outright Wins as an Underdog
+6.5, 2021 at Cardinals
+6.5, 2010 at Jets
➤Another week without a turnover for the Steelers – which is always a dangerous thing for a Mike Tomlin team. Steelers are 40-5 SU and 38-7 ATS under Tomlin when they don’t turnover the ball.
Under Tomlin, Steelers are 15-6 SU/ATS after b2b games without a turnover.
➤Steelers are on short rest off Monday Night Football, heading to Detroit to face the Lions.
Oddly enough, teams on short rest, heading to Detroit are actually an even 5-5 SU vs. Campbell, Goff and the Lions.
Overall, short rest has been a bit of a thorn in the side of Tomlin and the Steelers, who are 0-4 SU/ATS in that spot since the start of last season. In Tomlin’s career, he is just 9-8-2 ATS as an underdog on short rest.
➤Lions rush defense has been something to marvel at this season. They have yet to allow any player to run for 90+ yards. The highest mark for any player vs. Lions this year is Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, both at just 83 yards.
Last week, Detroit did get gashed on the ground by both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, both going for 70+ rush yds, just under that 90 mark. After a Dan Campbell team allows 150+ rush yds, he is 11-6 SU and 14-4 ATS as a head coach.
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➤Texans are on roll. They have won 6 straight outright and covered 4 straight ATS.
Teams on a 6+ game win streak, who have also covered four straight are 11-16 ATS since 2003 when they are a double-digit favorite, including 2-7 ATS since 2019.
In terms of Houston, this is the 2nd time as a franchise they’ve been on a 6+ game SU win streak and a 4-game ATS win streak, also doing so back in 2011.
➤Another week, another ridiculous spread and total in a Raiders game.
Texans are 14.5-pt favorites with a total of 38. This would be the first game with a spread of 14 or more and a total of 38 or less since the Kendall Hinton game with the Broncos and Saints in 2020, which had a spread of 17 an total of 36.5.
The Raiders would be the first team to be underdogs of 12.5 or more, with a total of 38 or less in the same season since the 2011 Rams, which also happened in consecutive games.
Raiders haven’t closed at +14.5 or higher since 2018. Anything at +15 or higher would be the first time since 2014.
➤The Raiders have lost 8 consecutive games outright entering this week and they are now double-digit underdogs in consecutive games.
Teams to be listed as double-digit underdogs in consecutive games are 72-44-3 ATS since 2003 in that 2nd leg, including 3-0 ATS this season.
➤The Raiders got shut out for the 2nd time this season last week against the Eagles.
Before this season, the Raiders had 3 shutout losses of 31+ points in their previous 58 seasons and they have two this season.
Since 2015, teams that were shut out in their previous game are 35-17 ATS, including 5-0 ATS this season. This also includes the Bengals this week.
➤The Raiders have had numerous issues this season, one is coming out of the locker room.
Vegas is 3-11 against the 3rd quarter spread, tied for the worst mark in the NFL with the Dolphins.
This season, the issue for the Raiders have been the middle quarters. In the 2nd and 3rd quarters combined, Vegas is 8-20 ATS. In the 1st and 4th quarters, they are 16-14 ATS:
1Q: 8-6 ATS
2Q: 5-9 ATS
3Q: 3-11 ATS
4Q: 8-6 ATS
➤No stat is more important to winning than a team total, it's hard to win without points.
Raiders are 4-10 to their team total over this season, tied for the worst mark in the NFL. They were 10-7 to their TTO last year.
In the first half, Raiders are 2-11-1 to their team total over, 2nd-worst mark to the Ravens.
In Pete Carroll’s last two seasons in the NFL with the Raiders and Seahawks, his teams are 11-20 to their team total over.
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➤Patriots are coming off a loss to the Bills last week, after blowing a 21-0 lead. This season, the Patriots are 2-0 SU/ATS off a loss and as a head coach, Mike Vrabel is 24-18-3 ATS off of a loss as a head coach for the Patriots and Titans.
New England had won 71 straight games when leading by 21+ points, with their last loss back in 2011. Vrabel is 5-2 SU/ATS in his next game coached after his team blows a lead of more than one possession (9 pts or more).
➤Lamar Jackson has been unbeatable late in the season before the playoffs, and now, Baltimore needs every single win.
In Weeks 15 to 18, Lamar is 16-0 SU in his career, the best mark for any QB in NFL history. In a small sample size, Drake Maye is just 1-4 SU in these weeks.
➤Lamar had been known as the “Night King” – but that has come down to earth lately.
In 2025, Lamar and the Ravens are 1-3 SU playing at night. He entered 2025, 20-5 SU at night in the regular season.
This is the Patriots' fourth night game under Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye; the Patriots are 3-0 SU/ATS in those games. When Vrabel was at the Titans, he also did well in night games, going 12-9 ATS.
➤Diving inside this matchup a bit in terms of quarters and halves, the Patriots have been better in the middle portion of games, especially in the first half.
Here are the Patriots stats by quarter this year:
1Q: 7-7 ATS
2Q: 12-2 ATS
3Q: 10-4 ATS
4Q: 5-9 ATS
New England is 11-3 against the 1st half spread this season, best mark in the NFL and best mark through 14 games for the Patriots in the last 30 years.
➤A serious resurgence from the Ravens defense this season. Through the first five weeks, Ravens were 30th in EPA/play on defense, 29th in success rate, including 32nd and last in rush EPA/play, getting gashed on the ground.
Since Week 6, Baltimore is 5th in EPA/play on defense, 5th in success rate, and 1st in rush EPA/play – an amazing turnaround.
➤The Ravens have not started fast at all this season. In 14 total games, Baltimore is 2-12 to their 1st half team total over, the worst mark of any team in the NFL.
In 8 home games in 2025, Baltimore is 0-8 to their 1H team total over, the worst mark in the NFL.
Over the last two seasons, Ravens have started the year 6-8 1H ATS in both seasons, struggling to get out of the gate both years.
➤Welcome back, Ravens run game.
Ravens were 13th in rush EPA/play the first 5 weeks of the season and 25th in rush success rate. They are 5th in rush EPA since Week 6, and 14th in rush success rate.
Ravens rush game last two weeks:
24 carries, 189 yards, 7.9 yds/rush vs. Bengals
40 carries, 217 yards, 5.4 yds/rush vs. Steelers
When the Ravens rush for 150+ yards in b2b games, they are 16-2 SU and 13-5 ATS in their next game since 2023.
➤Patriots had a 10-game SU win streak entering last week vs. Bills and lost outright after blowing a 21-0 lead. In December or later, after a team breaks their 10+ game win streak and are then listed as underdogs the next week, are 0-4 SU/ATS since 1990, with the 2020 Steelers the last team in this spot.
Overall, the market has disrespected New England lately. Underdogs in consecutive games after an 11-2 start to the season. The question is, what can we take from this? Well it depends if you think Drake Maye is Sam Darnold or John Elway.
Since 1990, we’ve only seen two other teams be listed as underdogs in b2b games where they had above an 80% win pct in their 14th game or later in the regular season:
2024 Vikings and 1997 Broncos. One lost in the Wild Card round and one won the Super Bowl.
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➤Until the fairytale story ends, this is all about Philip Rivers.
Last week, Rivers went 18-27 passing for 120 yds, a TD and an INT. Rivers went 2-8 passing 10+ yds downfield, with his INT coming as his deepest pass of the game forcing it to try and get the Colts in field goal range.
Rivers’ average depth of target last week was 4.8 yds downfield. This season, we’ve seen 30 games where a QB had a aDOT of 4.8 or less on 25+ dropbacks, Rivers’ completion pct over expected of -10% is the worst of that group.
➤Under Shane Steichen, the Colts have played at night in primetime just twice, losing both games straight up and against the spread, going 0-2, losing to the Vikings and Texans. Colts have scored under 20 pts in both games.
On the other side, this season, the 49ers have played three night games, they are 3-0 SU/ATS, beating the Panthers, Falcons and Rams. Brock Purdy is a respectable 9-6 ATS as a favorite in night games, too.
➤The 49ers may be the quietest 10-4 team we’ve ever seen. This season, they have a strength of victory percentage at just 36.4%. Looking at the top-9 seeds in the NFC currently, only the Bears have a lower strength of victory figure than San Francisco.
➤Since Brock Purdy came back from injury and replaced Mac Jones, the 49ers are 4-0 SU/ATS, winning by double-digits in each game.
This is Brock Purdy’s first 4-game ATS win streak of his career and San Francisco’s first 4-game ATS win streak since 2022.
➤Just for fun, Philip Rivers has faced the 49ers four times in his career as a starter, and he is 4-0 SU in those games, scoring 29 pts or more in all four matchups – granted, his last such game came in 2018.
Rivers though has lost five straight starts outright on Monday Night Football, with his last win coming back in 2013 against … Andrew Luck and the Colts.
➤In Philip Rivers’ career as a starter, he has only closed as a home underdog of 6 pts or more twice and both came against the Broncos:
+7, 2013 vs. Denver/Peyton Manning (L, 28-20)
+6, 2015 vs. Denver/Brock Osweiler (L, 17-3)
➤Under Shane Steichen, the Colts have had to play 18 total games with a backup QB, which they will now do for the remainder of the season – Indy is actually 10-8 ATS in those games.
The issue for Indy? The line. As a favorite with a backup, they are 7-1 SU, as an underdog 2-8 SU
➤The 49ers have won both of their recent games on extended prep time, beating and covering vs. the Panthers and Titans.
But on the road or neutral site, San Francisco has struggled a bit in this spot losing 4 in a row ATS in that spot, including 1-3 SU.
In Brock Purdy’s career, he is 2-5 ATS on the road on any extended prep time, only Jordan Love has a worse mark ATS in that spot since Purdy was drafted.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: As of now, the Browns and Raiders fit this system. Check updated betting pct's below. These are teams after bad offensive games, who the public are fading. They are 17-5 ATS this season.
Matches: Check current lines.
System: Home teams in games between bad teams late in the season have been profitable historically.
Matches: TEN, NO, NYG, ARI, MIA
System: The AFC North has historically been giant killers.
Matches: CLE, BAL
System: Teams who average 30+ PPG this late into the season have been good fades through the years.
Matches: LAR, DET
System: Jets closed at almost a two TD underdog last week in Jacksonville and got blown out. This system says to back them in the first half this week.
Matches: NYJ
System: Higher total, divisional unders later in the season — 58% in over 600-game sample size.
Matches: CHI/GB, TB/CAR
