Russell Wilson Trade Odds: Options Dwindle After Cowboys Extend Dak Prescott
Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Wilson.
Russell Wilson Trade Odds
Odds to be the first team Russell Wilson takes a snap for in 2021.
And just like that, one of the four destinations on Russell Wilson’s wishlist is off the table.
The Cowboys agreed to a four-year, $160 million deal with Dak Prescott on Monday. Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the deal includes a no-trade clause. That means the list of teams Wilson would consider a trade to is down to the Saints, Raiders and Bears.
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, estimates that Prescott’s deal increases Wilson’s odds of staying in Seattle from 80% to 90%.
The Seahawks are favored to be the team Wilson takes his first snap for in 2021 at -500, giving him an 83.3% implied probability of staying in Seattle (calculate implied probabilities using our Betting Odds Calculator).
Feb. 25 Update
There’s more smoke to the Russell Wilson trade rumors, this time coming via The Athletic.
According to the report, Wilson stormed out of an in-season meeting when his ideas to improve the team’s offense were dismissed.
Now his camp is discussing potential trades, with the Dolphins, Jets, Saints and Raiders mentioned as possibilities.
Odds are no longer available for Wilson’s next destination, but the last time they were up the Raiders were the betting favorites. The other three teams were down the oddsboard a bit, with the Jets at +1600.
Feb. 17 Update
The Russell Wilson market isn’t as fluctuating as others, likely because he’s most likely to remain with his current team.
PointsBet took its lines off the board, but FanDuel posted their own. The board looks similar to what PointsBet had, with a few key differences.
The Jaguars were third on the board at PointsBet but aren’t featured at all for FanDuel. Instead, it’s the Broncos with the third-best chance to land Wilson.
One thing to note on FanDuel is bets are void if Wilson takes his next snap with the Seahawks.
Feb. 12 Update
Russell Wilson hasn’t reached Deshaun Watson’s level of frustration with the only franchise he’s ever known, but the Seattle quarterback’s displeasure is enough for public speculation on his future to begin.
And with speculation comes betting odds.
The Seahawks aren’t expected to actually move on from Wilson, although sometimes where there’s smoke there’s fire. If Tom Brady can successfully leave the Patriots and win, who’s to say it can’t happen to Wilson? It’s more likely this is a ploy to motivate the front office to make necessary adjustments to support Wilson.
But if this public spat becomes a problem, PointsBet pegs the Las Vegas Raiders as the +450 betting favorite to acquire Wilson. The Raiders have been in rumors all offseason about potential upgrades from Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota.
While Carr’s brother, David, has said the team is turning down trade offers, there’s little doubt Mark Davis and Jon Gruden would jump at the opportunity to land someone like Wilson.
Speaking of an owner not afraid to make a splash, Jerry Jones’ Cowboys are second on the board at +650. Dak Prescott can be franchise tagged or extended in Dallas, but a desperate Jones could do whatever it takes to bring in a quarterback of Wilson’s pedigree.
It’s assumed Trevor Lawrence will be the future in Jacksonville, but would Urban Meyer move the No. 1 pick in a package for Wilson? The Jaguars are third on the list.