Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime TD props for the Wild Card Round of the playoffs on Sunday, January 11.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail these NFL Wild Card TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Wild Card Sunday.
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers — Wild Card Sunday
| Picks |
|---|
| Bills vs Jaguars |
| 49ers vs Eagles |
| Chargers vs Patriots |
Bills vs. Jaguars
I usually like to take a spin on WR Parker Washington or TE Brenton Strange when betting on Jaguars anytime touchdown scorers, but this matchup lines up heavily for RB Travis Etienne to have a huge game.
Facing the Bills, I think Etienne could see 20+ carries and up to five targets in this matchup since running backs have been Buffalo’s weakness all season.
The Bills have allowed the most rushing TDs this year, while ranking 31st in defensive DVOA vs. the run. I know RB Bhyashul Tuten may see some work, but given the full-season sample, this is Etienne’s backfield.
Etienne leads the Jaguars in red-zone carries (53), and that ranks fifth in the NFL, and if you look at any red-zone split like carries inside the 10, carries inside the 5 etc., Etienne doubles Tuten in overall attempts in any split.
Another angle is the receiving game: Etienne finished with six receiving TDs this season and led the Jaguars in red-zone targets inside the 10-yard line.
I’m also likely going to bet on WR Parker Washington at +210 since he’s been absolutely crushing it this season for Jacksonville, but Etienne to score 2+ touchdowns is my favorite TD angle for this game.
The Bills have been quite careful with how much they’ve used TE Dalton Kincaid down the stretch, as he’s still managing a knee injury.
Although he only played a handful of snaps in Week 18, he still saw three targets, which shows me that they’re saving him for the playoffs but wanted to get him some reps. That’s all I needed to see to bet on Kincaid to score for Wild Card Weekend.
The Jaguars tend to play a lot of zone (fourth-highest rate), and that’s where Kincaid has been showcased the most by the Bills, as he leads the team in target share, yards per route run, and receiving TDs.
With QB Josh Allen out there, there's always a chance he vultures some touchdowns in the red zone, but with the Jags ranking in the bottom-10 in targets, catches and TDs to TE this year, I think it’s Kincaid’s time to shine.
Verdict: Travis Etienne 2+ TDs +450 | Parker Washington +210 | Dalton Kincaid +250
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49ers vs. Eagles
This game could go a lot of ways for Eagles TD scorers facing this putrid 49ers defense, as injuries to the 49ers defense has essentially neutered them, ranking bottom-three in pressure rate per dropback.
If QB Jalen Hurts has a lot of time to throw, then we bank on an Eagles pass-catcher, and TE Dallas Goedert stands out at +210.
Goedert has 11 touchdowns this season, with eight of his TDs coming inside the 10-yard line. Only Rams WR Davante Adams had more in that spot, but with Goedert, not only is he running routes in the red zone, but the Eagles are catching defenses napping with the shovel pass — he’s scored six TDs from three yards in this season.
Due to the injuries, the Niners have scotch-taped their defense as best they can with a top-10 rate of zone coverage and single-high safety, but with the lack of pressure, Goedert shouldn’t have to stay back and block or chip, which should allow him to run more routes and get targets.
The 49ers have also given up the fourth-most targets to TEs and the fifth-most TDs (10).
I know this will likely be his toughest matchup of the season, but since we’ve made it this far, I’m going to continue to run back 49ers WR Jauan Jennings to score a TD.
I’ve bet him to score in each of the last nine games for San Francisco, and he’s rewarded me with a winner in seven of those nine games. He’ll likely be shadowed by CB Quinyon Mitchell for portions of the game, but with the way the 49ers have been effective on third and fourth down this season, I trust QB Brock Purdy to target Jennings whenever it’s a 1-on-1 matchup, even with a skilled CB in Mitchell.
Why I’ve kept betting Jennings each week is he’s been nearly matchup proof with decent metrics vs. both man and zone defenses, but the price is why I’m going back to him as well, since we’re getting over +200 for his TD odds when it should be closer to +175 since he’s the WR1 in a decent offense.
Verdict: Dallas Goedert +210 | Jauan Jennings +250
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Chargers vs. Patriots
I’ve bet on Keenan Allen for Chargers TD scorers pretty often through the regular season and got mixed results. Part of the reason why I bet him was he was routinely showing TD value for his prop with him averaging close to +350 for the season.
Now, for this matchup against the Patriots, he’s still showing value for me because among the three main Chargers WRs, Allen still leads the team in targets-per-route-run against both man and zone coverages, and should be a top target for Justin Herbert, as he led the team in first-read rate for the regular season.
While I love Allen for this matchup, my favorite TD bet of this game is on Chargers QB Justin Herbert to score a TD at +550.
Herbert only has two rushing TDs this season, but his willingness to use his legs has been hard to ignore this year, as he finished fourth among all quarterbacks in total scrambles.
What might be most impressive is since he broke his non-throwing hand, he’s still averaging nearly seven carries per game over four games.
I'm also going with my gut here, as I think we may see Herbert call his own number near the goal line since the Patriots tend to use man coverage higher than most teams, which sets up well for scrambling.
Given the stakes, Herbert’s athleticism, and the odds, this is a great time to invest in a QB TD that’s not Drake Maye.
The Patriots' anytime touchdown scorer market isn’t great for value this week.
WR Demario Douglas probably offers the best value at +700, but his role in the offense fluctuates so much, I’d rather just take a WR that I know will run at least a 70% route rate and that’s WR Stefon Diggs or WR Kayshon Boutte.
Of the two, I’m betting that Boutte will see more targets, while Diggs will see double coverage rotated to him by the Chargers.
I know Diggs technically has the best receiver metrics vs. zone and two-high safety (Chargers play both at top-five rates), but with Drake Maye’s deep ball ability and Boutte leading the team in deep targets, I think the Patriots can catch the Chargers off guard and get Boutte some end-zone looks.
If you prefer to bet Diggs at +170, that’s fine, but from a value standpoint, his odds should probably be closer to +230 before you start to get proper value on his TD prop.
Verdict: Kayshon Boutte +310 | Keenan Allen +350 | Justin Herbert +550
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