Seth Williams Draft Profile, Dynasty Fantasy Analysis & Props To Bet
James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: Seth Williams.
Seth Williams Draft Profile
Seth Williams Draft Props
I’m gonna let my tweet do the talking.
I bet WR Seth Williams under 229.5 about 10 days ago.
His current line is 136.5 at Circa.
I think he is likely to go around pick 120. Maybe even pick 100.
Even so, I MUST bet over 136.5 and go for the middle, right?
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 26, 2021
The people have spoken: I’ll stay put.
The over/under of 136.5 for Williams at Circa is the only one I can find in the market, and I think he is more likely than not to hit the under.
Entering the 2020 season, Williams was solidly projected for Day 2, but since then he has seen his draft stock plummet (per Grinding the Mocks).
Even so, he still has the vestigial sheen of a former blue chipper, and it’s not hard to imagine an NFL general manager wanting to invest in Williams on the cheap in the first half of Round 4.
7/ Seth Williams under 229.5: -115, 1.15 units
I'm not a Williams truther, but he's big and young. I figure some team will reach for him.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 17, 2021
But Williams has a wide range of draft outcomes. He could go as high as Round 3 or as low as Round 7 — and that’s why the middle is tempting. I mean, we’re talking about a spread of 137 – 229. That’s massive.
But I am a man of the people, and they have spoken.
If I didn’t already have a position on Williams, I would likely bet under 136.5. Given that I have already maxed the under 229.5, I’ll stay put.
Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
Williams intrigues me.
A four-star high-school receiver and safety, he was recruit as an all-around athlete by several schools in the SEC — including hometown Alabama — but he settled on Auburn, where he immediately contributed as a true freshman with 26-534-5 receiving and started alongside upperclassmen Darius Slayton and Ryan Davis.
As a sophomore, Williams emerged as the No. 1 pass catcher for the Tigers with 59-830-8 receiving in 12 games, and then he essentially ran it back (albeit with less production) in 2020 with 47-760-4 receiving in 11 games.
Those numbers don’t stand out, but some context is warranted. In his two final seasons, he had a dominant share of the team’s targets (per 2021 Sports Info Solutions Football Rookie Handbook).
- 2019: 30% target share
- 2020: 29% target share
And he had to deal with absolutely horrible quarterback play at Auburn.
Seth Williams’ interest in playing football correlated with the quality of play he received from the QB position. https://t.co/G3utvNYfhS
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) April 25, 2021
Under the circumstances, Williams’ numbers aren’t as bad as they look.
But Williams is far from a finished product. He lets cornerbacks push him around, and he often loses in 50/50 situations. Last year, he had just nine receptions on 30 contested targets (per Pro Football Focus).
With all the contested targets, this statement might not need to be said, but I’ll say it anyway: He’s a half-hearted route runner. He doesn’t sell his routes. He doesn’t separate. And that’s a big reason for the high number of contested targets.
And the problems for Williams go beyond contested catch rate and route technique. The dude has the hands of a defensive lineman. In way too many uncontested situations, he simply dropped the ball. Last year, he had 10 drops on 101 targets (per SIS). That is beyond bad.
In general, I think drops don’t matter, but that’s once a guy is on the field in the NFL and regularly running routes. Drops absolutely matter if a guy can’t get playing time because of them. And that might be the case for Williams in the NFL.
But his talent is undeniable. At times — especially in the red zone — he looks dominant.
Seth Williams is a highlight machine 🔥
Who is your 2021 draft sleeper? 👀pic.twitter.com/0aeAVeN7eb
— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) April 25, 2021
And his positive attributes are numerous. Williams is big and fast. He contributed right away in college. He is leaving early for the NFL and just 21 years old.
Can someone telling me what I'm missing with Seth Williams?
-19 year old breakout
-Ideal weight at 211 lbs
-Great hand size
He's going in the 3rd round of SF drafts right now.
I don't get it.
— Dalton Kates (@DaltonGuruFF) April 7, 2021
All of those factors make him highly attractive: Receivers who produce early in college and declare early for the draft tend to have success — and his marked youth and strong physical profile give him long-term upside.
Even if he goes in Rounds 4-5, he could be this year’s Slayton or Gabriel Davis.
But I’m skeptical — even if he goes in Round 3. Legion are the ceiling Day 2 prospects who stay rooted to the floor.
NFL Prospect Comp: Sammie Coates with an earlier breakout but less draft capital
Matthew Freedman is 1,018-828-37 (55.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.